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原文：
HOW TO MAKE UP ANNUAL FORECASTS
I have stated before that the future is but a repetition of the past; therefore, to make up a
forecast of the future, you must refer to the previous cycles.
The previous 10-year cycle and 20-year cycle have the most effect in the future, but in
completing a forecast, it is best to have 30-years past record to check out, as important
changes occur at the end of 30-year cycles. In making up my 1935 Forecast on the general
market, I checked the years 1905, 1915, and 1925. For the 1929 forecast, I compared 1919 –
10 years back, 1909 – 20 years back, 1899 – 30 years back, and 1869 – 60 years back, the
Great Cycle.
You should also watch 5, 7, 15, and 50-year periods to see if the market is repeating one of
them closely.
MASTER 20-YEAR FORECASTING CHART
1831 – 1935
In order to make up an annual forecast, you must refer to my Master 20-year Forecasting
Chart and see how the cycles have worked out and repeated in the past.
And stated before, the 20-year cycle is the most important cycle for forecasting future market
movements. It is one-third of the 60 year cycle and when three 20-year cycles run out,
important bull and bear campaigns terminate.
In order for you to see and study how the cycles repeat, I have made of a chart of 20-year
cycles, beginning with the year 1831. To show all of the cycles from 1831 to date, we have
carried through on this chart the monthly high and low on railroad and canal stocks from 1831
to 1855. Beginning with 1856 we have used the W. D. Gann Averages on railroad stocks
until the beginning of the Dow-Jones Averages in 1896. After that we have used the Dow-
Jones Industrial Stock Averages.
After the end of the 20-year cycle in 1860,
the next cycle begins at 1861 and runs to 1880,
the next cycle begins at 1881 and runs to 1900,
the next cycle begins at 1901 and runs to 1920,
the next cycle begins at 1921 and runs to 1940.
By placing the monthly high and low prices for each of these 20-year periods above each
other, it is easy to see how the cycles repeat. The year of the cycles are marked from "1" to
"20". Study the chart and note what happened in the 8th and 9th year of each cycle – that
extreme high prices have always been reached. For example:
1929 FORECAST
According to my discovery of the 60-year cycle, I had figured that 1929 would repeat like
1869, 1909, and 1919. Looking back 20 years, we find that top was reached in August, 1909,
and 60 years before, top was reached in July, 1869. If you will read my Annual Forecast for
1929, you will see that I had figured the top must come not later than the end of August and
stated that a "Black Friday" would come in September. Following strictly the 1869 top, the
top would have come in July, 1929, and some stocks did make top at that time. Following the
1909 top, we could expect top in August, and the actual high of the averages and many
individual stocks was reached on September 3, 1929. Going back to 1919, we find that the
Averages made first top in July and a big decline followed, but extreme high was made in the
early part of November.
From all of these tops – 1869, 1909, and 1919 – sharp declines followed in the fall of the year,
just as they did in 1929. Therefore, you see how easy it was to follow this great advance and
determine when it would culminate. There is no other way, outside of using the 20 and 60-
year cycle that we could have forecast this great bull campaign and its culmination so closely
in 1929.
1869-73 VS. 1929-33
After the 1869 top, stocks continued to decline and reached low in November, 1873. See how
many other bottoms were reached around this time in other cycles. After the big decline from
1929, notice that in October, 1933, the last low was reached on the Dow-Jones averages; then
followed an advance to new high levels, crossing the top of July, 1933.
1935 FORECAST
Figuring out the Forecast for 1935, we see on this 20-year Chart that we are running against
1855, 1875, 1895, 1915. Therefore, we look to see what happened in those years. We find
that in 1895, the high was reached in September, in 1915, the high of the year was reached in
December.
Then, look back at 1865, 1885, 1905, and 1925, the years in the 5th zone or the 10-year
cycles. We find that in 1865 the high was reached in October; in 1905 the high was in
October: in 1925 the high was in November.
Then, we would have a good guide in making out the Forecast for 1935, and we would know
what months to watch for top and a change in trend. My Annual Forecast for 1935, which
was made up in October, 1934, indicated top for October 28 and a secondary top for
November 15-16, 1935.
There are other ways of using this Chart to advantage. One method of determining the trend
is to compare the years of previous cycles in the same zone. For example: after the Dow-
Jones 30 Industrial Averages crossed 108 in May, 1935, they were above the average high
price of all the previous years in the 15th-year zone. Therefore, the market indicated higher
prices and showed that there would be a bull campaign.
1936 FORECAST
If we wish to make up a forecast for the year 1936, we compare the years in the 16th year
zone, viz. 1856, 1876, 1896, and 1916. As 60 years back is a very important cycle, we look at
1876 first, then 1896, and 1916.
1876 - We find that the averages run up and reach high in March; then decline to the end of
the year.
1896 - Next, we look at 1896, which is 40 years back, or two 20-year cycles, a very
important presidential election year, just as 1936 will be. We find that there was a
moderate rally into February, a decline to March, then a small rally to May, from
which a panicky decline followed, culminating on August 8, 1896, with the averages
at the lowest levels in years. From that point, a bull campaign started, with prices
working higher to December.
1916 - The next important cycle is 20 years later, or 1916. We find that prices declined in
January, rallied moderately in February, then declined sharply to April, rallied to
June, then declined and made bottom in July, from which a big bull campaign
started, making top in November, 1916, in a war market. A panicky decline
followed from the latter part of November into December.
This completes our comparison of the 60, 40, and 20-year cycles back from 1936. Next, we
look at the cycles on the other side of the Chart, in the 6th year of the 20-year cycle, or the 6th
zone, of the 10-year cycles. These years are 1866, 1886, 1906, and 1926.
1866 - We find that in 1866 there was a sharp decline, reaching bottom in February; then
an advance, with top of the year in October.
1886 - We find a sharp decline and bottom in January, a moderate rally into March, then a
sharp decline to new lows in May; a sharp advance, reaching high in November, and
a sharp decline in December.
1906 - The next important cycle to consider is 1906. In that year, the great McKinley
boom, which began in 1896, culminated. The railroad averages reached the highest
price in history up to that time. From the high of January, a sharp decline followed
to May. Much of this selling was caused by the San Francisco earthquake. Then,
there was a rally into June, followed by a sharp decline to low in July, with the
bottom just slightly higher than the low of May. From this low there was an
advance to September, when another top was made, but lower than the top in
January; then followed a decline into December and a panic followed in 1907.
1926 - The next important 10-year cycle to consider is 1926, when the great Coolidge bull
campaign was underway. From the low in December, 1925, stocks rallied to
February, 1926; then had a sharp decline into March, some stocks breaking as much
as 100 points. From this bottom there was a sharp advance to new high levels,
reaching top in August; then another sharp decline to bottom in October, from
which a rally followed to December, but stocks did not get back to the high reached
in August that year.
Now, when I get ready to make up my Forecast for 1936, I will consider all of the cycles. I
will go back and also check the 7-year cycles, the 14-year and 15-year cycles, which is half of
the 30-year cycle. But, at this writing, with my knowledge and experience of the future
cycles, I expect the 1896 cycle to repeat in 1936.
1936 is likely to be a very uncertain election year just as it was in 1896, when the Bryan silver
scare caused a panicky decline into August. There is a possibility of a three-cornered fight,
with two Democratic presidential candidates and one Republican. There certainly is going to
be a time during 1936 when the investors are going to get scared and speculators are going to
get scared and sell stocks, causing sharp declines.
My opinion, at this writing, is that the first decline will start in the month of January and wind
up with a sharp decline. February – the market may drift along in a narrow, trading range
with some rallies, but there will be another decline in the month of March, just as there was in
1926. I am confident that there will be another break in the months of May and June,
especially in the latter half of May, as this will be running out four years from the 1932 low
and 6 years from April, 1930 high, all of which are indications of important changes in trend.
We know that presidential nominations will take place in July, therefore this is a month to
watch for uncertainties and declines, unless sharp declines have come before that time. The
ending of the cycle from 1896 in August is quite important and regardless of how high or how
low stocks are, there are likely to be some sharp declines before the end of August. Again, in
the last half of September, uncertain conditions and possibility of sharp declines are indicated.
This may mark the last low and an election rally may start if there are indications of a change
in Administration by the election of a Republican president, which, I believe, at this writing,
will happen.
September, October, and November are all important because these months are 7 years from
the top in September, 1929 and 7 years from the panicky decline in October and November,
1929. I would expect a rally to take place after the election in November, which would last
anyway until the early part of December. If conditions show signs of improvement and if the
people are satisfied with the man elected, then the advance will probably continue into
December, with high prices around the end of the year.
This is merely a general outline that I am giving without completing all of my calculations
and making up the Annual Forecast in detail.
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|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|【阳光飞狐】
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发表于 2009-5-2 22:48:11
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楼主
感谢 
发表于 2009-5-3 10:21:13
发表于 2009-5-4 02:47:53
