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4 o) q9 X& r0 \+ ?# e) K0 U) ~# A1.首发。转载请注明出处——阳光飞狐/江恩理论；当然还有译者。谢谢！! b4 R$ |/ _ R6 ]5 U( f0 ?3 K
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原文：2 q. a W/ x3 J/ w% \$ ]5 `
IMPORTANT POINTS TO REMEMBER IN FORECASTING
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TIME is the most important factor of all, and not until sufficient time has expired does any * n& y8 L3 c. j5 D+ B, o1 P
big move up or down, start. The Time factor will overbalance both Space and Volume.
) o2 F0 X! H' {/ OWhen Time is up, space movement will start and big volume will begin, either up or down.
% C% P& e/ r( r5 qAt the end of any big movement – with monthly, weekly, or daily – Time, must be allowed
6 r0 h- a2 O! ~8 F) hfor accumulation or distribution.7 r5 s7 x0 h% i, O) K }! m, y
, F; |2 D. I" K: o" bConsider each individual stock and determine its trend from its position, according to distance
2 M2 \8 U' c0 X. |in time from bottom or top. Each stock works out its 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 10, 15, 20, 30, 50 and 60- S6 e, e- Z. d/ ^
year cycles from its own base or bottoms and tops, regardless of the movements of other ; N; U; q& l8 \( S N3 N1 T
stocks, even those in the same group. Therefore, judge each stock individually and keep up
5 }- [/ A( n' g! T9 k$ x+ ^' U/ |weekly and monthly charts on them.) V- ^0 C$ S" c6 ]0 ?" ^5 j
7 ^6 L$ U! s4 x9 \9 L \
Never decide that the main trend has changed one way or the other without consulting the
6 z" }! C- s$ ~1 V5 u v$ {angles from top or bottom and without considering the position of the market and cycle of
- t2 p. ?7 _- T: T! D' beach individual stock.7 m0 P) C2 `( E
1 e, ^8 e+ b6 P6 EAlways consider the annual forecast and whether the big time limit has run out or not before 2 e, C4 u/ M8 g9 @
judging a reverse move. Do not fail to consider the indications on Time, both from main tops ' @6 ?( v5 `0 d3 z
and bottoms, also Volume of Sales and position on Geometrical Angles.* }6 b3 N; v. V7 i. @. h$ x. Y
! |6 f: j8 j% t) W; `. @, @9 b! hA daily chart gives the first short change, which may run for 7 to 10 days; the Weekly Chart % _" I6 ]5 V6 _# F
gives the next important change in trend; and the Monthly the strongest. Remember, weekly
+ p: u1 x: a5 b/ u$ {7 x" Amoves run 3 to 7 weeks, monthly moves 2 to 3 months or more, according to the yearly cycle, % ~3 m d) n% b+ K8 U8 [% T6 G
before reversing.
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! |6 z: A2 C& t# P8 }Yearly bottoms and tops: it is important to know whether a stock is making higher or lower ( W$ D' _/ [: ~6 L
bottoms each year. For instance, if a stock has made a higher bottom each year for five years,
E" [6 f. h7 b% F- uthen makes a lower bottom than the previous year, it is a sign of reversal and may mark a long . n& Q: R9 t/ W( s
down cycle. The same rule applies when stocks are making lower tops for a number of years
3 e% W$ S4 h0 L! ?& s+ Fin a bear market.
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6 K* R0 M& x. ?, UWhen extreme advances or declines occur, the first time the market reverses over 1/4 to 1/2 of
! a6 l/ k0 O# @2 Q* L7 v7 `5 t- tthe distance covered in the previous movement, you consider that the trend has changed, at
9 [+ @& Z1 I0 o: Uleast temporarily.1 p( ^% [+ z2 |6 |
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It is important to watch space movements. When Time is running out one way or the other, ! V8 B+ M8 F6 i$ [& ]) f
space movements will show a reversal by breaking back over 1/4, 1/3 or 1/2 of the distance of
0 v, l- D/ R7 [, J2 bthe last move from extreme low to extreme high, which indicates that the main trend has
1 j H+ e; K; z. j1 e5 C! ?changed.) @) W/ h- Q4 { C$ W0 M+ L5 x
+ a S; G/ K# V3 K3 x% D/ X
Study all the instructions and rules that I have given you; read them over several times, as % B! z5 E m8 r
each time they will become clearer to you. Study the charts and work out the rules in actual
* |9 `3 f0 X8 d6 Spractice as well as on past performance. In this way, you will make progress and will realize
0 q* _; G R& i4 l- g3 y6 hand appreciate the value of my Method of Forecasting.3 X; Q5 t# X4 O0 k
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发表于 2009-4-30 10:58:01
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楼主
发表于 2009-4-30 11:22:23
哦，原来是007兄！
发表于 2009-5-3 10:30:27
发表于 2009-5-4 12:51:27
