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1.首发。转载请注明出处——阳光飞狐/江恩理论；当然还有译者。谢谢！
* x* t) D$ X/ g, f q( [! S2.译文乃初稿，未校稿，仅供参考！
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原文：9 ?5 f5 j$ ?1 W7 ]* P% J. u
IMPORTANT POINTS TO REMEMBER IN FORECASTING; o, M* j& g- V: b; A6 w
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TIME is the most important factor of all, and not until sufficient time has expired does any * X* I5 n; v8 Z; o
big move up or down, start. The Time factor will overbalance both Space and Volume.
7 b% [4 t3 @7 d$ p6 KWhen Time is up, space movement will start and big volume will begin, either up or down.
3 P& @/ A5 L5 q9 F7 }7 vAt the end of any big movement – with monthly, weekly, or daily – Time, must be allowed 1 D- h& N/ {3 g3 ? M. f; Q m
for accumulation or distribution.: h8 {' Q4 P1 U4 A
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Consider each individual stock and determine its trend from its position, according to distance
/ J+ U4 c3 A2 Q9 t& E/ Xin time from bottom or top. Each stock works out its 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 10, 15, 20, 30, 50 and 60-
, H( X6 v# ]; G0 h6 @! J3 S- \/ xyear cycles from its own base or bottoms and tops, regardless of the movements of other 8 ]0 I* `- {5 `6 x0 x) X
stocks, even those in the same group. Therefore, judge each stock individually and keep up
& p: ]" @6 {) j) U, A* `weekly and monthly charts on them.' B$ \/ N+ x) _* X/ P
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Never decide that the main trend has changed one way or the other without consulting the ; u3 q9 [: W% B& t/ ^
angles from top or bottom and without considering the position of the market and cycle of # i' l4 x! D5 S" X3 {
each individual stock.$ X+ t% R( l: s- w& ]1 D* Y1 x
& x2 R/ t' G7 J5 `/ tAlways consider the annual forecast and whether the big time limit has run out or not before ; k( U: g% }; W" d8 z% S- J2 N
judging a reverse move. Do not fail to consider the indications on Time, both from main tops ' V4 \8 r3 A& t$ f0 l0 e
and bottoms, also Volume of Sales and position on Geometrical Angles.
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A daily chart gives the first short change, which may run for 7 to 10 days; the Weekly Chart 1 E! I2 x$ h1 E
gives the next important change in trend; and the Monthly the strongest. Remember, weekly7 k, U6 z7 Z1 R/ M0 T! ]
moves run 3 to 7 weeks, monthly moves 2 to 3 months or more, according to the yearly cycle, 6 |6 u. i+ _: Q( h) }
before reversing., E) Z' a9 r1 n8 L* _
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Yearly bottoms and tops: it is important to know whether a stock is making higher or lower % j/ A" ? _( z X( l5 _# K
bottoms each year. For instance, if a stock has made a higher bottom each year for five years,
; z q3 T2 X% Y) Rthen makes a lower bottom than the previous year, it is a sign of reversal and may mark a long + i# o4 y0 J! X2 i
down cycle. The same rule applies when stocks are making lower tops for a number of years & h3 J1 j4 c: t( J* E
in a bear market.
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5 g: G* F+ Y m3 u7 m8 V8 BWhen extreme advances or declines occur, the first time the market reverses over 1/4 to 1/2 of $ q8 h: u$ q3 c7 P1 R
the distance covered in the previous movement, you consider that the trend has changed, at
S. U: }& N7 R9 b: @least temporarily.
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6 k; j. r9 l$ b8 xIt is important to watch space movements. When Time is running out one way or the other, , |- g7 w+ F! B; N6 E @
space movements will show a reversal by breaking back over 1/4, 1/3 or 1/2 of the distance of
: d' S E- ^( j9 o" T& wthe last move from extreme low to extreme high, which indicates that the main trend has 1 g6 \( v4 P. E8 N7 V+ l/ `; @2 A
changed.
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4 W6 I6 }) u+ X* x+ V) HStudy all the instructions and rules that I have given you; read them over several times, as / @6 o8 t6 c& x) e" d
each time they will become clearer to you. Study the charts and work out the rules in actual , _; J2 K) ~* ?/ {5 U
practice as well as on past performance. In this way, you will make progress and will realize 3 n% j0 k, M5 e* h5 l8 Y
and appreciate the value of my Method of Forecasting.
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发表于 2009-4-30 10:58:01
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楼主
发表于 2009-4-30 11:22:23
哦，原来是007兄！
发表于 2009-5-3 10:30:27
发表于 2009-5-4 12:51:27
