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. ]. x9 ` V5 C4 l5 T原文:0 e% k+ h7 `& x9 g i# ^% d7 i
HOW TO MAKE UP ANNUAL FORECASTS
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I have stated before that the future is but a repetition of the past; therefore, to make up a - d5 P; f6 w5 Y) l2 f1 Z& }
forecast of the future, you must refer to the previous cycles.+ t! `' c5 }; x: }5 T* s
9 p) K- r; v K" H" l$ | B2 FThe previous 10-year cycle and 20-year cycle have the most effect in the future, but in % @! V. Z* x# Q0 z+ t
completing a forecast, it is best to have 30-years past record to check out, as important
* C+ q& \/ F# t5 Z) fchanges occur at the end of 30-year cycles. In making up my 1935 Forecast on the general
# F+ I5 u! L) [ S8 `market, I checked the years 1905, 1915, and 1925. For the 1929 forecast, I compared 1919 –' a1 V! N# n5 y- i Q) V
10 years back, 1909 – 20 years back, 1899 – 30 years back, and 1869 – 60 years back, the
% D- `2 q3 b5 z+ J: @! C: e& VGreat Cycle.7 Z1 w8 h2 v# U2 ]7 t
; `) N& [! s' T, t4 u1 S
You should also watch 5, 7, 15, and 50-year periods to see if the market is repeating one of 5 I/ P. r" E# p. w6 x& x5 e# I
them closely.2 r& B8 D2 [: @( w4 _. R( z1 s
( H7 m F2 O9 y6 z8 n6 xMASTER 20-YEAR FORECASTING CHART$ l" p z7 S6 ]# Q( G# j
1831 – 19355 R; K2 J5 P/ J8 b- ?* J( q
In order to make up an annual forecast, you must refer to my Master 20-year Forecasting 7 s% {$ K4 x' M
Chart and see how the cycles have worked out and repeated in the past.
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And stated before, the 20-year cycle is the most important cycle for forecasting future market
7 p" H3 f! ^ V/ ]movements. It is one-third of the 60 year cycle and when three 20-year cycles run out,
8 J9 u& s5 K8 G7 [+ bimportant bull and bear campaigns terminate.6 b5 u+ _! Q* ]
$ \" A+ p: [! O, v% F
In order for you to see and study how the cycles repeat, I have made of a chart of 20-year
, W P1 Q M% j G* t& P; P# Qcycles, beginning with the year 1831. To show all of the cycles from 1831 to date, we have 5 D" m1 a$ u) g
carried through on this chart the monthly high and low on railroad and canal stocks from 18312 S g, w: y' g$ N$ D! E
to 1855. Beginning with 1856 we have used the W. D. Gann Averages on railroad stocks " a5 `1 i* W! U% k7 n/ E& F! K
until the beginning of the Dow-Jones Averages in 1896. After that we have used the Dow-# W* Y& w2 [, T @; C
Jones Industrial Stock Averages.
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& l) p) q: {3 N2 @% CAfter the end of the 20-year cycle in 1860,+ z5 d2 x! R0 b% |) v
the next cycle begins at 1861 and runs to 1880,; M, I0 V3 g Q
the next cycle begins at 1881 and runs to 1900," j7 \! Z* _ c
the next cycle begins at 1901 and runs to 1920,
. m- @. H) m" R! Ithe next cycle begins at 1921 and runs to 1940.
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: t6 z( {# b+ x5 l5 rBy placing the monthly high and low prices for each of these 20-year periods above each 2 ?* I/ d) r5 }4 H* e
other, it is easy to see how the cycles repeat. The year of the cycles are marked from "1" to ! |0 F' G8 r9 A. S" R0 j: i
"20". Study the chart and note what happened in the 8th and 9th year of each cycle – that 6 b0 I( \- y7 f: `
extreme high prices have always been reached. For example:0 _3 R" ~3 z- {
, L+ }- @- b: B I* }& k4 h1929 FORECAST# r; c5 q ?- M* ]$ R7 Z% e
According to my discovery of the 60-year cycle, I had figured that 1929 would repeat like
, G! f( Z! i8 B# u$ P1 g- Y5 ^1869, 1909, and 1919. Looking back 20 years, we find that top was reached in August, 1909, 7 g0 ?2 H1 Y7 |% Z
and 60 years before, top was reached in July, 1869. If you will read my Annual Forecast for
# L! T$ g. p6 ]) b8 \$ y1 m& I5 A! e+ p1929, you will see that I had figured the top must come not later than the end of August and
. [; [) R( z* D" y sstated that a "Black Friday" would come in September. Following strictly the 1869 top, the ! [5 L' K# a1 X# l9 S
top would have come in July, 1929, and some stocks did make top at that time. Following the & R3 z( r- ?) A3 j3 r0 d* k' c
1909 top, we could expect top in August, and the actual high of the averages and many 3 G6 T/ `4 U+ J2 e: E& m q
individual stocks was reached on September 3, 1929. Going back to 1919, we find that the
4 }$ U, d5 l. J' U. r7 jAverages made first top in July and a big decline followed, but extreme high was made in the 0 |5 K2 V; R/ Y4 M! f
early part of November.& z2 g. o, P7 X. p/ L
, f Z0 y! x9 o$ {From all of these tops – 1869, 1909, and 1919 – sharp declines followed in the fall of the year,
: q' M" P* ^7 i7 [1 q% j; ajust as they did in 1929. Therefore, you see how easy it was to follow this great advance and $ j; `# f7 b0 W
determine when it would culminate. There is no other way, outside of using the 20 and 60-7 B! K1 E* U2 \9 T' I; T' {
year cycle that we could have forecast this great bull campaign and its culmination so closely
. W( k1 G+ ~/ C1 T1 C# Tin 1929.2 Q% T7 e" f& }: N
4 q% I" d9 A) X+ \. d( A2 N% V4 H1869-73 VS. 1929-33: S: R1 J0 J. M5 F
After the 1869 top, stocks continued to decline and reached low in November, 1873. See how
2 C( v U% a# w, [- o8 Hmany other bottoms were reached around this time in other cycles. After the big decline from ) {( u% s% S& k* E5 T/ b3 P
1929, notice that in October, 1933, the last low was reached on the Dow-Jones averages; then
9 M# Z" h. w5 dfollowed an advance to new high levels, crossing the top of July, 1933." T: ?5 B9 p" B9 e2 w
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1935 FORECAST
7 m' f% |& s" ^% \Figuring out the Forecast for 1935, we see on this 20-year Chart that we are running against 1 ?6 `1 N6 E4 e( h% l
1855, 1875, 1895, 1915. Therefore, we look to see what happened in those years. We find
C" p* P o- F5 ]4 ]that in 1895, the high was reached in September, in 1915, the high of the year was reached in 7 `! b# q3 P9 q+ }! N/ P) n
December.7 Z$ b5 t2 Z5 ?$ a( l; t
8 z% D `, l7 [ [; {& }2 N2 P) oThen, look back at 1865, 1885, 1905, and 1925, the years in the 5th zone or the 10-year
: p Y7 M2 w# {9 D9 ncycles. We find that in 1865 the high was reached in October; in 1905 the high was in
: |( D& @& f* D# BOctober: in 1925 the high was in November.
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% U% {# |" R: PThen, we would have a good guide in making out the Forecast for 1935, and we would know 0 x4 |, H* S. M7 \7 o; ~; i; i
what months to watch for top and a change in trend. My Annual Forecast for 1935, which 1 u1 H" A' L9 Y' p a% ?
was made up in October, 1934, indicated top for October 28 and a secondary top for ( M2 q- r3 _( ]4 `! P
November 15-16, 1935.+ w" k/ h! W2 _( B+ _
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There are other ways of using this Chart to advantage. One method of determining the trend
c( m# X+ ?- w) v3 M2 K7 C5 dis to compare the years of previous cycles in the same zone. For example: after the Dow-- C$ y& R$ B# C. B7 N
Jones 30 Industrial Averages crossed 108 in May, 1935, they were above the average high
; F; \8 J; [8 n& W vprice of all the previous years in the 15th-year zone. Therefore, the market indicated higher # ^0 M4 O; X ]
prices and showed that there would be a bull campaign.: \& c6 L; O w. ^2 W7 V% |. R J
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1936 FORECAST
2 q& G1 r* k2 {- B% dIf we wish to make up a forecast for the year 1936, we compare the years in the 16th year , J( w8 i0 E" k4 ^5 k
zone, viz. 1856, 1876, 1896, and 1916. As 60 years back is a very important cycle, we look at ( M* j( k9 ^8 N/ _0 D" p
1876 first, then 1896, and 1916.% c! Z5 t. P9 C3 Y; K
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1876 - We find that the averages run up and reach high in March; then decline to the end of + P2 O% c' \3 Q2 V( b+ }
the year.. z. H' j5 b: E
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1896 - Next, we look at 1896, which is 40 years back, or two 20-year cycles, a very 2 y7 X5 f( m! {& e7 `
important presidential election year, just as 1936 will be. We find that there was a , B+ ~. D/ H! l- z3 X
moderate rally into February, a decline to March, then a small rally to May, from
/ S& w4 R8 _4 O2 W( iwhich a panicky decline followed, culminating on August 8, 1896, with the averages
/ G( S- k) |* Y1 K% qat the lowest levels in years. From that point, a bull campaign started, with prices 8 P: D Q' z" Z
working higher to December.
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1916 - The next important cycle is 20 years later, or 1916. We find that prices declined in
$ g4 Z9 h1 ~( L7 bJanuary, rallied moderately in February, then declined sharply to April, rallied to
0 g2 t5 }: b! y9 o1 u( yJune, then declined and made bottom in July, from which a big bull campaign 2 D, q8 }7 w' U4 `0 o+ L
started, making top in November, 1916, in a war market. A panicky decline
5 T2 S/ ?4 s) |followed from the latter part of November into December.% ?* B- j5 R2 k2 r+ c
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This completes our comparison of the 60, 40, and 20-year cycles back from 1936. Next, we
9 K1 Y: A" \2 d \0 d% klook at the cycles on the other side of the Chart, in the 6th year of the 20-year cycle, or the 6th / l: @; R. K1 i( U2 C
zone, of the 10-year cycles. These years are 1866, 1886, 1906, and 1926., a8 v' k) b: e+ Q/ z# @! j
( T' x* B% Q6 A1866 - We find that in 1866 there was a sharp decline, reaching bottom in February; then
: C% y" _8 I, o" @7 N) C0 E% \8 Ran advance, with top of the year in October.
5 K U& z- k8 r* B2 n6 O: Q1886 - We find a sharp decline and bottom in January, a moderate rally into March, then a 1 _, b; Q& `" h
sharp decline to new lows in May; a sharp advance, reaching high in November, and 4 O+ j& t. ~! p9 C$ H: T% I' |' I
a sharp decline in December.: v, r7 j# j9 z9 O1 M
8 O Z2 ^8 ?+ J$ d7 W1 ^1906 - The next important cycle to consider is 1906. In that year, the great McKinley 9 @) w! Z2 r" J
boom, which began in 1896, culminated. The railroad averages reached the highest ) F: G: @) M) g/ P" f
price in history up to that time. From the high of January, a sharp decline followed [6 d" E, Q: {2 {
to May. Much of this selling was caused by the San Francisco earthquake. Then, $ Z8 x! u. U/ W3 O0 e$ W
there was a rally into June, followed by a sharp decline to low in July, with the 5 j7 h4 v j9 a8 Y$ t- a$ a
bottom just slightly higher than the low of May. From this low there was an
" F; m5 _; F. Z/ y9 _) Cadvance to September, when another top was made, but lower than the top in
5 \1 h( ~# \2 e( H. m5 Q9 IJanuary; then followed a decline into December and a panic followed in 1907.
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6 D2 l# q9 P2 \4 X; ]" \* k0 n1926 - The next important 10-year cycle to consider is 1926, when the great Coolidge bull ( O6 \( U. m& B/ M8 v" j6 B/ r0 y
campaign was underway. From the low in December, 1925, stocks rallied to ) E( u, i4 c/ f/ z5 y) g2 Y
February, 1926; then had a sharp decline into March, some stocks breaking as much / q* O2 d5 } V; W; B0 e
as 100 points. From this bottom there was a sharp advance to new high levels, + s. o. w$ a9 n- z& H0 O5 n+ y+ T
reaching top in August; then another sharp decline to bottom in October, from
$ I9 R0 q; ~: f( s0 T4 dwhich a rally followed to December, but stocks did not get back to the high reached 1 l+ h% M6 |9 P; h
in August that year.
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" N f3 M% u8 ^ d( t7 }; NNow, when I get ready to make up my Forecast for 1936, I will consider all of the cycles. I , B% ]- z. D/ q* V
will go back and also check the 7-year cycles, the 14-year and 15-year cycles, which is half of
2 l2 ^ y% Q/ |6 C- s' `the 30-year cycle. But, at this writing, with my knowledge and experience of the future
; l* [3 f& n/ `4 o% [cycles, I expect the 1896 cycle to repeat in 1936.
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1936 is likely to be a very uncertain election year just as it was in 1896, when the Bryan silver
. L: @1 ]6 `* \scare caused a panicky decline into August. There is a possibility of a three-cornered fight, ( V% k; e, A7 @+ D: N+ @, Q! n0 `
with two Democratic presidential candidates and one Republican. There certainly is going to
; m$ V' \4 A5 V! r: a9 xbe a time during 1936 when the investors are going to get scared and speculators are going to s9 f$ E+ U J) a4 ]3 J. Q$ |
get scared and sell stocks, causing sharp declines.: c5 y- ^. P' g
1 G9 E$ C' V5 s1 h" hMy opinion, at this writing, is that the first decline will start in the month of January and wind
6 S( p3 k+ P3 V o6 cup with a sharp decline. February – the market may drift along in a narrow, trading range
8 x% O4 K$ }8 U/ l4 b$ I Iwith some rallies, but there will be another decline in the month of March, just as there was in ! q: G5 B7 W0 d; a' D- }% a
1926. I am confident that there will be another break in the months of May and June, 7 @0 k) X$ B' u6 z: u
especially in the latter half of May, as this will be running out four years from the 1932 low
: I+ s8 j5 H, y) ]and 6 years from April, 1930 high, all of which are indications of important changes in trend.. ?; y: n6 `4 B% |$ |) V
+ u) ~" a+ {+ P' EWe know that presidential nominations will take place in July, therefore this is a month to + P( }: R: N2 {' J( p4 F2 n
watch for uncertainties and declines, unless sharp declines have come before that time. The
: A5 x7 J$ f2 N. Nending of the cycle from 1896 in August is quite important and regardless of how high or how 3 G9 W1 }5 z1 r
low stocks are, there are likely to be some sharp declines before the end of August. Again, in ; [+ G% [! t! e# p I
the last half of September, uncertain conditions and possibility of sharp declines are indicated.
" }: l7 B4 [2 x1 y5 wThis may mark the last low and an election rally may start if there are indications of a change / i3 ~7 \0 @, n
in Administration by the election of a Republican president, which, I believe, at this writing, 4 S( A3 h9 D# L
will happen.! p% C' ^* T9 q5 }) I7 S
" E; c, G, J) J, J- Y' gSeptember, October, and November are all important because these months are 7 years from " m3 D) B; |6 C9 e& X$ A
the top in September, 1929 and 7 years from the panicky decline in October and November,
% {! }! a: I2 s4 ?& ^2 [$ F- I* I1929. I would expect a rally to take place after the election in November, which would last ! v$ z1 c" E1 E9 o6 G
anyway until the early part of December. If conditions show signs of improvement and if the 3 ?7 a( R: e8 ?4 \) T8 G
people are satisfied with the man elected, then the advance will probably continue into * g- ]( a3 s; O' ?
December, with high prices around the end of the year.' X4 ^. j0 X" w7 @
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This is merely a general outline that I am giving without completing all of my calculations 2 \) ~. V& _1 U8 f: {
and making up the Annual Forecast in detail. B' E* D9 ?+ ~2 d
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