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0 d* d( i7 j [3 u) |" O原文:, h3 A; q$ n& X) Y& M. p
HOW TO MAKE UP ANNUAL FORECASTS" L) M$ I8 X6 c% K9 S9 K
+ q! ^( A }$ Y4 u3 g9 V
I have stated before that the future is but a repetition of the past; therefore, to make up a / |6 J9 a# J& @, r
forecast of the future, you must refer to the previous cycles., P- y( y/ y7 }! v3 {
7 M2 H. ?5 @2 W+ Y0 l$ f7 ~
The previous 10-year cycle and 20-year cycle have the most effect in the future, but in / b* T, }: [! K4 |, W( |1 a R
completing a forecast, it is best to have 30-years past record to check out, as important 6 x( E4 W( h/ y& ?& [ R" h
changes occur at the end of 30-year cycles. In making up my 1935 Forecast on the general / L( f+ x+ ]. _3 d
market, I checked the years 1905, 1915, and 1925. For the 1929 forecast, I compared 1919 –
; I4 }& k8 E# Y10 years back, 1909 – 20 years back, 1899 – 30 years back, and 1869 – 60 years back, the
) R. C7 q7 Q) Y+ rGreat Cycle.; @( q3 e1 J, {% _+ A* v
$ {/ a/ Q4 r! N( L
You should also watch 5, 7, 15, and 50-year periods to see if the market is repeating one of " g; o% h' s0 W/ I! V
them closely.
1 `3 M" ~( {) z3 D$ n$ F! h+ P0 ~& X. P% h/ R" }: u1 z' d. Y
MASTER 20-YEAR FORECASTING CHART
i6 o1 L( T, [' l1831 – 1935
) p- ^7 O& z; t$ e' w& i4 iIn order to make up an annual forecast, you must refer to my Master 20-year Forecasting
8 y5 k/ f* u a6 ]: qChart and see how the cycles have worked out and repeated in the past.2 l; U1 x! y% ]2 d
, H6 p2 I, @7 O9 s+ K* s G
And stated before, the 20-year cycle is the most important cycle for forecasting future market
9 ^$ N( o: n9 m& A, Q9 Lmovements. It is one-third of the 60 year cycle and when three 20-year cycles run out,
0 G# l a& x( b! T9 |* _+ ?$ @& himportant bull and bear campaigns terminate.
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3 X3 c9 i1 f6 s7 n0 {% YIn order for you to see and study how the cycles repeat, I have made of a chart of 20-year
- w1 U7 c; }! A+ X* `" U" Ycycles, beginning with the year 1831. To show all of the cycles from 1831 to date, we have ) {8 X9 D0 v+ ]6 b6 t
carried through on this chart the monthly high and low on railroad and canal stocks from 18311 G& E; z8 ?1 s0 d
to 1855. Beginning with 1856 we have used the W. D. Gann Averages on railroad stocks $ u% r+ @# f1 b5 p+ y
until the beginning of the Dow-Jones Averages in 1896. After that we have used the Dow-, w2 ?0 r7 m, z% G6 A8 X
Jones Industrial Stock Averages., G) }8 D' c! O4 N$ e/ `2 |9 Y( r! w
7 q$ k Z& v. s/ N4 lAfter the end of the 20-year cycle in 1860,
+ x/ \7 L: w* h- y! Gthe next cycle begins at 1861 and runs to 1880,% N# P b6 [3 u {; v
the next cycle begins at 1881 and runs to 1900,. k) A# a8 G. `7 ^6 ^. g- t7 l& [" ]
the next cycle begins at 1901 and runs to 1920,
8 O: }# S/ t+ `. _1 j$ fthe next cycle begins at 1921 and runs to 1940.% _2 E3 v2 x1 f6 p6 T3 p4 \$ k
' z$ T' `7 F. Y9 n6 u' f7 C5 Y
By placing the monthly high and low prices for each of these 20-year periods above each 7 P9 ], K) B4 h7 v! [
other, it is easy to see how the cycles repeat. The year of the cycles are marked from "1" to $ l7 q( R) A( l# h( H3 H% E
"20". Study the chart and note what happened in the 8th and 9th year of each cycle – that $ O3 ?/ y! M$ Y- T/ r6 ]
extreme high prices have always been reached. For example:+ r* Z' e. `( S5 m5 p( M( N {; e6 K
3 w. |* H& t2 x
1929 FORECAST# R; y$ n% L$ g& b$ m- C I9 k- ?
According to my discovery of the 60-year cycle, I had figured that 1929 would repeat like 9 a) Q- k4 ]+ P9 O" H0 J
1869, 1909, and 1919. Looking back 20 years, we find that top was reached in August, 1909, 2 w1 p: L: Q. ^0 m- U: M2 t
and 60 years before, top was reached in July, 1869. If you will read my Annual Forecast for 8 R A# K6 M5 h: O
1929, you will see that I had figured the top must come not later than the end of August and
9 s1 H4 e* g" [: N* hstated that a "Black Friday" would come in September. Following strictly the 1869 top, the
; s' ^, ?1 W! p0 S/ p; Jtop would have come in July, 1929, and some stocks did make top at that time. Following the , S; E0 P( w/ H) y9 g! L, A- P
1909 top, we could expect top in August, and the actual high of the averages and many 0 L0 l& B8 j# d2 E! U7 m4 K& r4 l
individual stocks was reached on September 3, 1929. Going back to 1919, we find that the
/ [0 R6 F9 i' j: W4 F: _5 KAverages made first top in July and a big decline followed, but extreme high was made in the 7 T2 G. B P0 T% Q4 T6 f
early part of November.
/ s) z# _ ^1 W; W. D4 c( `( c
1 U% C& [' D/ HFrom all of these tops – 1869, 1909, and 1919 – sharp declines followed in the fall of the year,
1 [. b* _ m2 e5 ]/ qjust as they did in 1929. Therefore, you see how easy it was to follow this great advance and & J" G$ o) O) a; G. z) M
determine when it would culminate. There is no other way, outside of using the 20 and 60-
4 m, Y# I9 }9 y- v& Ayear cycle that we could have forecast this great bull campaign and its culmination so closely
$ E) E: s* d+ s) A7 ^0 b! `7 rin 1929.
6 M- d; o$ \+ y1 {4 G) O0 _4 y2 b% u( M4 ^3 N. q
1869-73 VS. 1929-33
1 z6 w, {5 T- v, {- t$ N- _After the 1869 top, stocks continued to decline and reached low in November, 1873. See how " X! y" _3 Z! g7 m
many other bottoms were reached around this time in other cycles. After the big decline from
6 u- w0 N" w% m1 C" F2 q/ ^3 T) p: u) x- o1929, notice that in October, 1933, the last low was reached on the Dow-Jones averages; then ' B8 n k. U" ^+ u9 \4 R8 ?7 {
followed an advance to new high levels, crossing the top of July, 1933.5 Y+ K6 e; q; P G$ N0 |3 z0 O4 j
" V( G' T& m3 E+ g5 k3 @! n
1935 FORECAST
8 B! V. b( p1 Q3 C/ T. |Figuring out the Forecast for 1935, we see on this 20-year Chart that we are running against
" u8 |4 A! {! p1855, 1875, 1895, 1915. Therefore, we look to see what happened in those years. We find% i. r- z2 R7 }& a# f
that in 1895, the high was reached in September, in 1915, the high of the year was reached in
( P! _0 C$ P7 u5 O/ [# D) QDecember.
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9 B( L* Y- J# g) KThen, look back at 1865, 1885, 1905, and 1925, the years in the 5th zone or the 10-year
+ H& r' G6 f$ v. n( Y2 Fcycles. We find that in 1865 the high was reached in October; in 1905 the high was in
; v/ ~" c; G7 r! E d+ Y2 lOctober: in 1925 the high was in November.
! T2 h1 h @1 n5 T; y, Y4 e: i) D) K% j: E$ F3 Z* \
Then, we would have a good guide in making out the Forecast for 1935, and we would know
4 e2 _% k5 _: x8 m6 R, w4 @what months to watch for top and a change in trend. My Annual Forecast for 1935, which
) b7 s9 Y8 B' g- ]/ }/ Dwas made up in October, 1934, indicated top for October 28 and a secondary top for # s- ?- G$ Y% k3 s: z7 Z, i& u
November 15-16, 1935.
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8 q6 i+ o2 G+ J IThere are other ways of using this Chart to advantage. One method of determining the trend 7 T" t( J r- |4 t; x/ F2 g' O
is to compare the years of previous cycles in the same zone. For example: after the Dow-: X% L! _- d! x1 h8 ~4 Z; R
Jones 30 Industrial Averages crossed 108 in May, 1935, they were above the average high 9 T y6 P. }+ B ^2 Z9 O( k! {
price of all the previous years in the 15th-year zone. Therefore, the market indicated higher
8 c+ O% j. X' H0 yprices and showed that there would be a bull campaign.; m( Q( L. K% _, x8 e4 k# C
& R. t3 i: x6 }# s
1936 FORECAST
- @ J) x, s1 z, S: h: hIf we wish to make up a forecast for the year 1936, we compare the years in the 16th year 5 q8 ~+ M6 ?. k' F+ [; I/ B
zone, viz. 1856, 1876, 1896, and 1916. As 60 years back is a very important cycle, we look at
/ }9 ^0 W/ F9 ^3 {; Q' X2 [1876 first, then 1896, and 1916.
& u- l) [. h2 r) I% _, P, _; B/ x; d8 ]
1876 - We find that the averages run up and reach high in March; then decline to the end of
1 i( z# D' T- r& w' w4 {the year.
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+ P4 j: _$ L- y0 L1896 - Next, we look at 1896, which is 40 years back, or two 20-year cycles, a very
; X" Y9 ~! Z7 b$ y/ a; l* ximportant presidential election year, just as 1936 will be. We find that there was a # O: J, g) L9 Y" B
moderate rally into February, a decline to March, then a small rally to May, from
6 \, ^, |. h+ qwhich a panicky decline followed, culminating on August 8, 1896, with the averages ) f1 s( h# Z$ x( J0 W1 R% L0 K
at the lowest levels in years. From that point, a bull campaign started, with prices
: v F8 ~+ I, C: o3 oworking higher to December.
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1916 - The next important cycle is 20 years later, or 1916. We find that prices declined in ' c+ l- \1 r/ G
January, rallied moderately in February, then declined sharply to April, rallied to 4 w. K7 [( C- I
June, then declined and made bottom in July, from which a big bull campaign
9 v: u( P0 | E7 U3 q+ p: \: gstarted, making top in November, 1916, in a war market. A panicky decline G/ s9 o4 c! f& x- w" o, U
followed from the latter part of November into December.
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% g# ~2 H5 [/ @This completes our comparison of the 60, 40, and 20-year cycles back from 1936. Next, we - [+ q" ]6 q1 }0 n5 V, f2 _; g' E6 ]( L
look at the cycles on the other side of the Chart, in the 6th year of the 20-year cycle, or the 6th 1 h g" |4 e, E
zone, of the 10-year cycles. These years are 1866, 1886, 1906, and 1926.0 ]8 P* H% X- g" D( O) u8 m( p
- P' i8 d0 {# `6 s
1866 - We find that in 1866 there was a sharp decline, reaching bottom in February; then 5 s' ?; Y( @$ \
an advance, with top of the year in October." |% q, I# ^; ^
1886 - We find a sharp decline and bottom in January, a moderate rally into March, then a - @3 a6 S2 j+ v- [, U+ s& k
sharp decline to new lows in May; a sharp advance, reaching high in November, and % T0 D M/ s" V, @, o
a sharp decline in December.
; }2 v7 O6 h/ H
) P3 F, s5 Z; [0 e1906 - The next important cycle to consider is 1906. In that year, the great McKinley 1 F" ]: \/ S, K( W
boom, which began in 1896, culminated. The railroad averages reached the highest 3 E6 d2 Y5 t6 N* P* }7 v$ G
price in history up to that time. From the high of January, a sharp decline followed 3 o, _2 n/ `9 q" u( H! o
to May. Much of this selling was caused by the San Francisco earthquake. Then,
. ?* b) W) f; Bthere was a rally into June, followed by a sharp decline to low in July, with the
; v+ d, G3 r# m3 l: Abottom just slightly higher than the low of May. From this low there was an " p# m n( E! Q% D, G2 C# ]6 D
advance to September, when another top was made, but lower than the top in
! e- a, ^& P- {6 v6 }" mJanuary; then followed a decline into December and a panic followed in 1907.
4 z6 W7 R9 p' {: I; b$ d! z+ J# E+ ^
1926 - The next important 10-year cycle to consider is 1926, when the great Coolidge bull 1 x# q. I# t k) W/ C6 {
campaign was underway. From the low in December, 1925, stocks rallied to + P2 x% u0 Q& }' f+ L9 w
February, 1926; then had a sharp decline into March, some stocks breaking as much & z j2 n0 z1 U0 H7 ^0 J
as 100 points. From this bottom there was a sharp advance to new high levels, - O( p3 r' z' t3 ~4 d4 f
reaching top in August; then another sharp decline to bottom in October, from - j% U% S* w; Q6 i9 q7 |
which a rally followed to December, but stocks did not get back to the high reached ; L0 x$ w$ ~# F9 D' X
in August that year." J9 J4 b2 }' z. n8 H
3 V9 x, {0 M, Y
Now, when I get ready to make up my Forecast for 1936, I will consider all of the cycles. I + i* q2 n" d6 S6 N, E
will go back and also check the 7-year cycles, the 14-year and 15-year cycles, which is half of
! Q7 f9 K* s5 v* h; e& Bthe 30-year cycle. But, at this writing, with my knowledge and experience of the future
4 K7 B! n; ~* i( _% Kcycles, I expect the 1896 cycle to repeat in 1936., Z. ^' u; C6 S9 I9 V( \6 I% P
0 g- `8 L& c, P: ?/ y1936 is likely to be a very uncertain election year just as it was in 1896, when the Bryan silver 8 J2 r4 @7 w+ H: ^
scare caused a panicky decline into August. There is a possibility of a three-cornered fight, 3 l- D; K8 Z" ~
with two Democratic presidential candidates and one Republican. There certainly is going to
2 R/ }6 b' b) M" A5 K% U' Hbe a time during 1936 when the investors are going to get scared and speculators are going to
3 z$ z6 c a* I; Z0 C. f% @get scared and sell stocks, causing sharp declines.
4 f! v3 G" D8 e! K g. q8 h
3 i7 s6 |! P$ d: `9 c5 j- g- lMy opinion, at this writing, is that the first decline will start in the month of January and wind
# L5 ~: H4 [1 c- N/ ~" M0 Gup with a sharp decline. February – the market may drift along in a narrow, trading range # [; _1 @; f6 a8 I2 U1 O! W$ i
with some rallies, but there will be another decline in the month of March, just as there was in
: F x/ @! u( a) w1926. I am confident that there will be another break in the months of May and June, 0 B( j& k- \: O
especially in the latter half of May, as this will be running out four years from the 1932 low ) m2 F+ N8 C Y6 m! W$ X
and 6 years from April, 1930 high, all of which are indications of important changes in trend.& ~, X; r" v, A' s2 L" [' ^% C
$ g: X5 R6 B# `, g3 b8 ~( PWe know that presidential nominations will take place in July, therefore this is a month to
4 O& l2 b0 C* ?4 q) f2 Zwatch for uncertainties and declines, unless sharp declines have come before that time. The V& @0 v g# ^# y
ending of the cycle from 1896 in August is quite important and regardless of how high or how
6 v7 o |$ r. o4 T& Z$ B4 l$ j( vlow stocks are, there are likely to be some sharp declines before the end of August. Again, in
3 v* C8 x0 c) E, ]the last half of September, uncertain conditions and possibility of sharp declines are indicated. 1 o" A' Q0 V3 Q( N* m
This may mark the last low and an election rally may start if there are indications of a change & @' D$ q: u9 H1 _
in Administration by the election of a Republican president, which, I believe, at this writing,
0 P, g; k m. dwill happen.
0 c4 q0 Q: P; ?6 n2 p9 X/ [. h1 s; }( X E
September, October, and November are all important because these months are 7 years from
! j- L1 U0 s- j7 Othe top in September, 1929 and 7 years from the panicky decline in October and November, 5 A s- W$ C+ `/ u v/ W
1929. I would expect a rally to take place after the election in November, which would last
: c5 k! s2 F2 Q% p* F0 o/ ranyway until the early part of December. If conditions show signs of improvement and if the
( U# Q! P" p' |/ J' f) jpeople are satisfied with the man elected, then the advance will probably continue into " C' Y. y" \$ q6 z
December, with high prices around the end of the year.8 |0 H, s, _7 s# J* F
. h3 e" @* H1 R& E& [7 ^
This is merely a general outline that I am giving without completing all of my calculations
) g0 f( Y/ T0 m4 s' Eand making up the Annual Forecast in detail.
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