江恩如是说（4）——年度预测

甘恩

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原文：
HOW TO MAKE UP ANNUAL FORECASTS
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I  have  stated  before  that  the  future  is  but  a  repetition  of  the  past;  therefore,  to make  up  a
/ Y2 l4 ^3 Z. _forecast of the future, you must refer to the previous cycles.

The  previous  10-year  cycle  and  20-year  cycle  have  the  most  effect  in  the  future,  but  in
completing  a  forecast,  it  is  best  to  have  30-years  past  record  to  check  out,  as  important
changes occur at  the end of 30-year cycles.    In making up my 1935 Forecast on the general
market, I checked the years 1905, 1915, and 1925.  For the 1929 forecast, I compared 1919 –
, a4 u8 k5 z5 m3 X& d10 years back, 1909 –  20 years back, 1899 –  30 years back, and 1869 –  60 years back,  the
5 h: V' [: n, j4 E" _Great Cycle.
, H7 ~2 H) n5 X" ]$ a' V8 {( z, ~
' z( F  o, \% aYou should also watch 5, 7, 15, and 50-year periods to see  if  the market  is repeating one of
6 u& h- O2 `5 x% z- g* L* D' X0 Sthem closely.

MASTER 20-YEAR FORECASTING CHART
+ C3 g3 }# @$ m( X# J7 y* M' ]1831 –  1935
In  order  to make  up  an  annual  forecast,  you must  refer  to my Master  20-year  Forecasting
  H& m9 Q  ~+ z1 o5 j/ _7 KChart and see how the cycles have worked out and repeated in the past.
2 K1 M" w# T7 v  M& Q
6 R( S, T0 l& j' m" ]And stated before, the 20-year cycle is the most important cycle for forecasting future market
movements.    It  is  one-third  of  the  60  year  cycle  and  when  three  20-year  cycles  run  out,
important bull and bear campaigns terminate.

0 n! s) y' I1 q' d* ?- F+ lIn order  for you  to  see  and  study how  the cycles  repeat,  I have made of  a chart of 20-year
4 n3 p) f( P, P/ c: E, rcycles, beginning with the year 1831.   To show all of the cycles from 1831 to date, we have
5 X- @8 {/ g9 [% Ucarried through on this chart the monthly high and low on railroad and canal stocks from 1831
6 A  S& D1 w9 b. ato 1855.   Beginning with 1856 we have used  the W. D. Gann Averages on  railroad  stocks
until  the beginning of  the Dow-Jones Averages  in 1896.   After  that we have used  the Dow-
Jones Industrial Stock Averages.

3 }) l" o4 @1 U& ^+ p. u$ NAfter the end of the 20-year cycle in 1860,
' a% }  ^( u& o  v/ p" Vthe next cycle begins at 1861 and runs to 1880,
0 S. N, |. a6 s1 p$ j" f# Gthe next cycle begins at 1881 and runs to 1900,
% [( p  b) q( V4 zthe next cycle begins at 1901 and runs to 1920,
8 G. S& U1 U1 B' ^: z/ u+ cthe next cycle begins at 1921 and runs to 1940.
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By  placing  the monthly  high  and  low  prices  for  each  of  these  20-year  periods  above  each
2 r) n+ U+ ^7 Q3 w! \other, it is easy to see how the cycles repeat.  The year of the cycles are marked from "1" to
"20".   Study  the chart and note what happened  in  the 8th and 9th year of each cycle –   that
0 w6 Z( g1 s$ Eextreme high prices have always been reached.  For example:
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9 L% R9 B: E! G1 z% A! i$ P7 N1929 FORECAST
; ~* C: ?3 ~- x9 zAccording  to my discovery of  the 60-year  cycle,  I had  figured  that 1929 would  repeat  like
+ C* x* H$ ?8 X  ]2 |7 a9 X7 G  y1869, 1909, and 1919.  Looking back 20 years, we find that top was reached in August, 1909,
and 60 years before, top was reached in July, 1869.  If you will read my Annual Forecast for
' a' q6 a8 X2 \1929, you will see that I had figured the top must come not later than the end of August and
stated that a "Black Friday" would come  in September.   Following strictly  the 1869  top, the
top would have come in July, 1929, and some stocks did make top at that time.  Following the
1909  top,  we  could  expect  top  in  August,  and  the  actual  high  of  the  averages  and many
individual stocks was reached on September 3, 1929.   Going back  to 1919, we find  that  the
$ @& f5 l0 Q' p/ K; r. Z0 YAverages made first top in July and a big decline followed, but extreme high was made in the
early part of November.

/ }( E5 `, A5 B/ h# T; X% ]From all of these tops –  1869, 1909, and 1919 –  sharp declines followed in the fall of the year,
just as they did in 1929.  Therefore, you see how easy it was to follow this great advance and
determine when it would culminate.   There is no other way, outside of using  the 20 and 60-
year cycle that we could have forecast this great bull campaign and its culmination so closely
in 1929.
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1869-73 VS. 1929-33
5 W4 g. d' U8 tAfter the 1869 top, stocks continued to decline and reached low in November, 1873.  See how
many other bottoms were reached around this time in other cycles.  After the big decline from
1929, notice that in October, 1933, the last low was reached on the Dow-Jones averages; then
followed an advance to new high levels, crossing the top of July, 1933.
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1935 FORECAST
8 l% ^0 y4 w. _6 |9 p0 cFiguring out the Forecast for 1935, we see on this 20-year Chart that we are running against
1855, 1875, 1895, 1915.   Therefore, we  look  to see what happened  in those years.   We find
  x. {" q- K. z, i) e9 c7 ethat in 1895, the high was reached in September, in 1915, the high of the year was reached in
8 S/ N7 V: G; O! m. QDecember.

& z- j, [" a8 s: m. J" RThen,  look  back  at  1865,  1885,  1905,  and  1925,  the  years  in  the  5th  zone  or  the  10-year
# h& Y5 [  K: tcycles. We  find  that  in  1865  the  high  was  reached  in  October;  in  1905  the  high  was  in
1 g! I/ c( f, h1 W' {October: in 1925 the high was in November.
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( e8 S8 _4 S3 u! K/ s4 |Then, we would have a good guide in making out the Forecast for 1935, and we would know
" r) w3 C* q: iwhat months  to watch  for  top and a change  in  trend.   My Annual Forecast  for 1935, which
was  made  up  in  October,  1934,  indicated  top  for  October  28  and  a  secondary  top  for
9 W3 J# }# E" h7 b8 _November 15-16, 1935.
4 i4 s1 ], X& _& Y' i6 b) `- f# O% |9 ]
There are other ways of using this Chart to advantage.  One method of determining the trend
is  to compare  the years of previous  cycles  in  the  same  zone.   For  example: after  the Dow-
. G# C6 }4 k, e+ l8 XJones 30  Industrial Averages  crossed 108  in May, 1935,  they were  above  the  average high
price of all  the previous years in the 15th-year zone.   Therefore, the market indicated higher
4 B2 u, L0 Q- W, ]# y1 `prices and showed that there would be a bull campaign.
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; A' u% B* U# ?* ~1936 FORECAST
If we wish  to make up a  forecast  for  the year 1936, we compare  the years  in  the 16th year
) S2 r9 n7 s2 f8 m& dzone, viz. 1856, 1876, 1896, and 1916.  As 60 years back is a very important cycle, we look at
1876 first, then 1896, and 1916.
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0 b4 v4 E" L7 o2 Q2 Z7 f# p+ l: M/ [1876 - We find that the averages run up and reach high in March; then decline to the end of
  W  N! p0 O" u. L5 L$ w& w  p; Pthe year.

$ d8 ^! w8 L2 T2 T7 U1896 - Next,  we  look  at  1896,  which  is  40  years  back,  or  two  20-year  cycles,  a  very
# f5 C: u' e" S$ C& Eimportant presidential election year, just as 1936 will be.   We find that there was a
moderate  rally  into February, a decline  to March,  then a  small  rally  to May,  from
6 P3 ^: k. _! Iwhich a panicky decline followed, culminating on August 8, 1896, with the averages
at  the  lowest  levels  in years.   From  that point, a bull campaign started, with prices
$ g4 A: A0 Y" L4 Y& jworking higher to December.

1916 - The next important cycle is 20 years later, or 1916.  We find that prices declined in
; ?8 {" ^( @( u# n! [1 t6 _2 g8 QJanuary,  rallied moderately  in  February,  then  declined  sharply  to April,  rallied  to
& w- C% }# r2 T; s3 j6 EJune,  then  declined  and  made  bottom  in  July,  from  which  a  big  bull  campaign
  _3 `& d6 O: w% S& p2 }started,  making  top  in  November,  1916,  in  a  war  market.    A  panicky  decline
followed from the latter part of November into December.
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" t# W8 I/ t9 s' E5 \$ h# ?( r7 ?This completes our comparison of  the 60, 40, and 20-year cycles back from 1936. Next, we
* y+ O0 h+ i$ A: c$ @8 G, q( g4 ]8 ^) _look at the cycles on the other side of the Chart, in the 6th year of the 20-year cycle, or the 6th
3 i. j8 T; _- @7 k- I% Qzone, of the 10-year cycles.  These years are 1866, 1886, 1906, and 1926.
) \7 i1 z* }  {
1866 - We find  that  in 1866  there was a sharp decline,  reaching bottom  in February;  then
  Q  }* Z3 N2 w' {an advance, with top of the year in October.
/ t% u/ N8 b6 O7 U0 d7 h4 W/ H1886 - We find a sharp decline and bottom in January, a moderate rally into March, then a
- X; e1 Q  Z6 Q- I0 Q0 ?sharp decline to new lows in May; a sharp advance, reaching high in November, and
4 N, c6 x$ V1 r- c6 S( C- u) ^a sharp decline in December.

+ d7 z) h3 h- n# n8 X1 g0 }1906 - The  next  important  cycle  to  consider  is  1906.    In  that  year,  the  great McKinley
2 J. D: X+ y6 G* O( }5 ?boom, which began in 1896, culminated.  The railroad averages reached the highest
3 h3 ^2 F. d' J. x; V9 U' Tprice in history up to that time.  From the high of January, a sharp decline followed
0 J( ]4 T8 o' @6 E; ^7 Jto May.   Much of  this selling was caused by  the San Francisco earthquake.   Then,
there was  a  rally  into  June,  followed  by  a  sharp  decline  to  low  in  July, with  the
  _0 h- K8 U- O! D* \bottom  just  slightly  higher  than  the  low  of May.    From  this  low  there  was  an
advance  to  September,  when  another  top  was  made,  but  lower  than  the  top  in
1 d! P9 i4 s6 H# bJanuary; then followed a decline into December and a panic followed in 1907.
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0 `: U, t& j. O2 _  E* ^" z1926 - The next important 10-year cycle to consider is 1926, when the great Coolidge bull
campaign  was  underway.    From  the  low  in  December,  1925,  stocks  rallied  to
February, 1926; then had a sharp decline into March, some stocks breaking as much
as  100  points.    From  this  bottom  there was  a  sharp  advance  to  new  high  levels,
reaching  top  in  August;  then  another  sharp  decline  to  bottom  in  October,  from
which a rally followed to December, but stocks did not get back to the high reached
( u7 {! F' P  B' G$ Lin August that year.
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2 `/ [( C" K! CNow, when I get ready to make up my Forecast for 1936, I will consider all of the cycles.  I
will go back and also check the 7-year cycles, the 14-year and 15-year cycles, which is half of
& S4 H+ \0 d: h' X/ d# e3 u5 d' \the  30-year  cycle.    But,  at  this  writing,  with my  knowledge  and  experience  of  the  future
# G' @9 a9 Y8 N) q( b% o( F, v- ?cycles, I expect the 1896 cycle to repeat in 1936.

1936 is likely to be a very uncertain election year just as it was in 1896, when the Bryan silver
scare caused a panicky decline  into August.   There  is a possibility of a  three-cornered fight,
3 }  v. |6 Z" y! P  i/ O5 gwith two Democratic presidential candidates and one Republican.  There certainly is going to
$ {+ I! r5 N, v' ]be a time during 1936 when the investors are going to get scared and speculators are going to
9 b; F8 c# {" j& t- W; A/ pget scared and sell stocks, causing sharp declines.
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+ e2 T* t. g% xMy opinion, at this writing, is that the first decline will start in the month of January and wind
up with a  sharp decline.   February –   the market may drift along  in a narrow,  trading  range
with some rallies, but there will be another decline in the month of March, just as there was in
1926.    I  am  confident  that  there  will  be  another  break  in  the  months  of May  and  June,
especially in the latter half of May, as this will be running out four years from the 1932 low
and 6 years from April, 1930 high, all of which are indications of important changes in trend.

$ U1 L7 v$ l! L8 F+ y4 E8 Q$ _We know  that presidential nominations will  take place  in  July,  therefore  this  is  a month  to
watch for uncertainties and declines, unless sharp declines have come before that  time.   The
ending of the cycle from 1896 in August is quite important and regardless of how high or how
' D) `$ n' p3 @' C# g' a7 l7 rlow stocks are, there are likely to be some sharp declines before the end of August.  Again, in
( p3 M0 f( ^. t0 g5 F* V% e. ^; jthe last half of September, uncertain conditions and possibility of sharp declines are indicated.  
" R1 F  q/ R3 j. xThis may mark the last low and an election rally may start if there are indications of a change
in Administration by the election of a Republican president, which, I believe, at this writing,
! i" T0 I3 c3 F9 L2 M1 Q% \will happen.
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September, October, and November are all important because these months are 7 years from
the top in September, 1929 and 7 years from the panicky decline in October and November,
1929.   I would expect a rally to  take place after  the election in November, which would last
anyway until the early part of December.  If conditions show signs of improvement and if the
people  are  satisfied  with  the  man  elected,  then  the  advance  will  probably  continue  into
December, with high prices around the end of the year.
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This  is merely a general outline  that  I am giving without completing all of my calculations
6 Z3 A% p$ O8 x4 ]5 \and making up the Annual Forecast in detail.
2 X7 @6 B6 ^* c3 n+ l2 A0 P$ Y9 B1 D----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
$ L7 x3 \+ X9 v* Q* y) t4 \- F! D9 o译文：

甘恩

桃兄真是快枪手！
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( ^$ s" \( \9 ]+ Y- m- {' V  N& W' [[ 本帖最后由 甘恩 于 2009-5-2 22:53 编辑 ]

天蓝蓝

你这是第几章第几节？请标上！

甘恩

原帖由 天蓝蓝 于 2009-5-2 22:55 发表
你这是第几章第几节？请标上！

6 f( N  z, ?' h9 f勤勤手吧——用一下PDF的搜索功能！！

anyway

     感谢

mcwhmm

谢谢

jqbudd

谢谢，

东四十条

谢谢！！支持甘恩兄的帖子！！

jsyly

谢谢甘恩兄
5 R6 a5 E2 F: x4 g4 A

new79man

支持楼主发贴。。

yay

原帖由 甘恩 于 2009-5-2 14:48 发表
7 }4 |' B) F+ ?0 L8 J5 ]! R说明：
1.首发。转载请注明出处——阳光飞狐/江恩理论；当然还有译者。谢谢！
. r! W0 `+ p7 U& y2.译文乃初稿，未校稿，仅供参考！
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

多读几遍江恩描述的! 或许就是大家天天都在做的事!
不要再搞的过于神秘!
; F: r" a: ?( g* ~. m
' n5 v+ N) M& d[ 本帖最后由 yay 于 2009-5-3 02:25 编辑 ]

wushilu

谢谢.
谢谢.
/ R4 z9 i3 e, G谢谢.

sijiawei2008

支持楼主发贴。。

xinju

中央红军1934年10月16日离开瑞金开始了长征之路
历史上的

如果再结合星相，自然如虎添翼，不用这样麻烦~~~

非常理由

谢谢

小笨牛

要学的东西太多，谢谢提供

axcqy

谢谢提供

上下

奇文共赏

shdw

谢谢甘恩兄

股为金用

支持楼主发帖，新手好好学习。

zb0510

84308

好好看看

老树

谢谢甘恩兄

jqbudd

谢谢分享

Panther

以前没有读到过， 谢谢。
老江真牛，这才是预测。
- v2 ^6 h  S& u7 b' k学习。

姜恩棠

江恩百年预测图

neilyoung

带彩的。。。

时价量形

谢谢分享

stevenluo1688

谢谢分享