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3 N A+ P+ ~3 ^1.首发。转载请注明出处——阳光飞狐/江恩理论；当然还有译者。谢谢！6 K* `# _; _6 W. H; A
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原文：
- P4 d3 p% E# g3 sIMPORTANT POINTS TO REMEMBER IN FORECASTING5 P! `8 {% M9 Q* e" E
2 @; x( d: s# |' m" D& y+ `TIME is the most important factor of all, and not until sufficient time has expired does any 5 I* Y- k K+ E8 F
big move up or down, start. The Time factor will overbalance both Space and Volume.
* {5 V2 _) l# H0 N& qWhen Time is up, space movement will start and big volume will begin, either up or down.
5 A, B( Z7 P+ r3 ], ]4 M9 j$ pAt the end of any big movement – with monthly, weekly, or daily – Time, must be allowed
5 M5 \, f. G" C6 r# Efor accumulation or distribution.' M7 S* {# e1 j( _2 p3 a$ J Q
/ L; e2 c, p, ]# Y) O9 l' w' YConsider each individual stock and determine its trend from its position, according to distance
- o w. V, N$ y$ z; n/ b( j" M' `in time from bottom or top. Each stock works out its 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 10, 15, 20, 30, 50 and 60-
e* k9 d7 W/ |) F: Qyear cycles from its own base or bottoms and tops, regardless of the movements of other
2 `% J' l" s# z/ w! ]6 _/ Sstocks, even those in the same group. Therefore, judge each stock individually and keep up
9 J7 ~7 B1 l1 Z/ }# I( `4 Vweekly and monthly charts on them.
7 `$ N' Y. W+ E% k" b, g& V9 G! g L& r) A
Never decide that the main trend has changed one way or the other without consulting the
- ?1 `3 z0 [3 I0 }5 y) y" fangles from top or bottom and without considering the position of the market and cycle of ' B+ H; i! ~! }1 y; v/ N
each individual stock.- e8 t: W2 `5 I4 G. U# S: P
+ h& P" ^/ X& x7 I& R+ }
Always consider the annual forecast and whether the big time limit has run out or not before * d& }& W& @+ T
judging a reverse move. Do not fail to consider the indications on Time, both from main tops
6 V' }+ g: s Q8 ?1 rand bottoms, also Volume of Sales and position on Geometrical Angles.& X1 v+ Q4 v) Z# ?3 m8 k: t( A
6 ~' j9 n$ L" c/ {/ J! d: M
A daily chart gives the first short change, which may run for 7 to 10 days; the Weekly Chart
. i( d/ z2 Y W$ @+ G; Zgives the next important change in trend; and the Monthly the strongest. Remember, weekly
% {; a: X' z' J! I+ b8 xmoves run 3 to 7 weeks, monthly moves 2 to 3 months or more, according to the yearly cycle,
& b, _0 L# @/ H _1 L9 |before reversing.+ ~; C/ K$ J5 j. w
- d" j% s; N1 M! Y7 h4 dYearly bottoms and tops: it is important to know whether a stock is making higher or lower
$ J2 Z0 K" u& @8 o/ jbottoms each year. For instance, if a stock has made a higher bottom each year for five years,
/ C ~7 D4 f% m4 E% q7 f( \. Y& o+ Hthen makes a lower bottom than the previous year, it is a sign of reversal and may mark a long + _5 L5 B2 v. G* c9 V) B. Y
down cycle. The same rule applies when stocks are making lower tops for a number of years " j8 t9 d- W# I
in a bear market.
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- e5 }" D! d7 s/ s7 gWhen extreme advances or declines occur, the first time the market reverses over 1/4 to 1/2 of % |7 H* l3 I3 }$ `. n- J
the distance covered in the previous movement, you consider that the trend has changed, at ; c1 u1 ^6 A* G2 |- R6 q, k b1 q
least temporarily.
* B, I! E, G& { [. _1 r8 t) f6 h8 V
9 d! @8 I+ O3 p8 a- SIt is important to watch space movements. When Time is running out one way or the other, : b+ u5 @" C9 I2 q/ k2 N
space movements will show a reversal by breaking back over 1/4, 1/3 or 1/2 of the distance of ' M, b& _" d9 d8 k
the last move from extreme low to extreme high, which indicates that the main trend has
4 j8 X/ }0 ~7 t j, y9 F$ Cchanged.
6 E7 M) b K' s5 m! {! [5 Z0 o
7 \* L b& o" j! A# KStudy all the instructions and rules that I have given you; read them over several times, as
5 I0 I' ^& l$ d$ X# I8 m. Weach time they will become clearer to you. Study the charts and work out the rules in actual
9 N. L7 ?$ H% s( Z( U% ~practice as well as on past performance. In this way, you will make progress and will realize
) j& Y0 R" q# f1 ~and appreciate the value of my Method of Forecasting.8 {' W+ r: ^5 `; a' h& i
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发表于 2009-4-30 10:58:01
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楼主
发表于 2009-4-30 11:22:23
哦，原来是007兄！
发表于 2009-5-3 10:30:27
发表于 2009-5-4 12:51:27
