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9 q X9 k D8 w0 P1.首发。转载请注明出处——阳光飞狐/江恩理论；当然还有译者。谢谢！6 g6 X, n# Q2 u# U' [
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原文：" v- A# b4 s6 l" { _; v
IMPORTANT POINTS TO REMEMBER IN FORECASTING
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( Y+ y) v9 K6 |- J: jTIME is the most important factor of all, and not until sufficient time has expired does any
* f5 n7 l% v) P3 e- [2 B* e4 N. ?big move up or down, start. The Time factor will overbalance both Space and Volume. 3 M, `. {2 G: u
When Time is up, space movement will start and big volume will begin, either up or down.
/ h8 Z/ j% m/ N% \2 ^) cAt the end of any big movement – with monthly, weekly, or daily – Time, must be allowed 2 E1 ~" o5 h+ P) ~. [
for accumulation or distribution.
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; t# T8 _" l; D* g% c" `Consider each individual stock and determine its trend from its position, according to distance # m+ r, n& ?' _/ Z8 n% b; l) [
in time from bottom or top. Each stock works out its 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 10, 15, 20, 30, 50 and 60-
* C: n2 g; h. x7 D n* K# Zyear cycles from its own base or bottoms and tops, regardless of the movements of other
& x8 c6 R& z" O* {( sstocks, even those in the same group. Therefore, judge each stock individually and keep up
6 P; [) q- ] d0 S9 Wweekly and monthly charts on them.
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2 f; X: ?1 r" x' [3 u3 \8 ]Never decide that the main trend has changed one way or the other without consulting the 9 a: q% \# M8 z
angles from top or bottom and without considering the position of the market and cycle of
3 i- N0 O6 ?: |( L meach individual stock. M% {0 h3 i! l# w
1 ^- r; N# K7 e3 NAlways consider the annual forecast and whether the big time limit has run out or not before % [' u% R0 {$ |% G4 z
judging a reverse move. Do not fail to consider the indications on Time, both from main tops
# u- B/ h/ b3 i7 W2 B5 vand bottoms, also Volume of Sales and position on Geometrical Angles.
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A daily chart gives the first short change, which may run for 7 to 10 days; the Weekly Chart # T5 _: G* f2 `
gives the next important change in trend; and the Monthly the strongest. Remember, weekly
/ c% `- E2 i3 I( Bmoves run 3 to 7 weeks, monthly moves 2 to 3 months or more, according to the yearly cycle, $ I4 V9 N1 L3 ?5 C( Q
before reversing.
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Yearly bottoms and tops: it is important to know whether a stock is making higher or lower
/ Z0 d) @ M) h# [bottoms each year. For instance, if a stock has made a higher bottom each year for five years,
$ Y k; z& ~/ C' T( O2 P: othen makes a lower bottom than the previous year, it is a sign of reversal and may mark a long
4 c: w2 P7 l/ q: P7 }5 c7 kdown cycle. The same rule applies when stocks are making lower tops for a number of years 6 F7 H& U f& S) t
in a bear market.
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! h! n5 z: W8 V/ H5 D: z6 ^$ {When extreme advances or declines occur, the first time the market reverses over 1/4 to 1/2 of # l& Y$ H1 h/ O7 x: f2 F; [& M: d
the distance covered in the previous movement, you consider that the trend has changed, at 0 Q. d1 G& u0 q
least temporarily.
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It is important to watch space movements. When Time is running out one way or the other, ( Y0 E. `7 P6 F# j# d; {
space movements will show a reversal by breaking back over 1/4, 1/3 or 1/2 of the distance of
' G3 u1 \- }8 X+ p0 q, f0 g& b+ `the last move from extreme low to extreme high, which indicates that the main trend has 0 h m" v2 ]# o
changed.
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2 l# j, |" B$ r/ _2 {Study all the instructions and rules that I have given you; read them over several times, as
7 P. S2 {; Z$ }5 V: s3 C4 V8 teach time they will become clearer to you. Study the charts and work out the rules in actual
' W+ w6 ]7 ]6 ^practice as well as on past performance. In this way, you will make progress and will realize
B; _/ V3 R8 D0 w, r- w3 sand appreciate the value of my Method of Forecasting.3 _7 k g4 }& L6 [* z
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发表于 2009-4-30 10:58:01
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楼主
发表于 2009-4-30 11:22:23
哦，原来是007兄！
发表于 2009-5-3 10:30:27
发表于 2009-5-4 12:51:27
