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0 W- `7 h1 d* c% l1 [% x* p" b% Q1.首发。转载请注明出处——阳光飞狐/江恩理论；当然还有译者。谢谢！
' s8 h2 U: @& r# I9 k2.译文乃初稿，未校稿，仅供参考！
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原文：- X! Q- P9 M, {8 K) b6 a, o
IMPORTANT POINTS TO REMEMBER IN FORECASTING# R* n: H, `5 }' \5 G
# T3 \8 ~+ R3 B% N+ @TIME is the most important factor of all, and not until sufficient time has expired does any - |1 M) v& a+ T+ w7 P5 q) y
big move up or down, start. The Time factor will overbalance both Space and Volume.
. C) B/ i2 q: m" l3 f5 O4 oWhen Time is up, space movement will start and big volume will begin, either up or down.
/ m8 |, ?6 x) DAt the end of any big movement – with monthly, weekly, or daily – Time, must be allowed
" n$ |5 L% m" q7 ]1 D* ]for accumulation or distribution.
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Consider each individual stock and determine its trend from its position, according to distance 6 ]/ M) Q9 l4 D, N# [. j
in time from bottom or top. Each stock works out its 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 10, 15, 20, 30, 50 and 60-2 b/ T3 }7 G8 i" @/ ~8 Z' u; _
year cycles from its own base or bottoms and tops, regardless of the movements of other
5 I( ?* G% D( ~1 ~" T* Istocks, even those in the same group. Therefore, judge each stock individually and keep up 2 s v" W8 G1 a1 B
weekly and monthly charts on them.$ W3 `+ C: Z, M4 ~
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Never decide that the main trend has changed one way or the other without consulting the - k2 {2 j6 n" i# O s
angles from top or bottom and without considering the position of the market and cycle of
) N# T; {5 C4 q, G. Reach individual stock.
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Always consider the annual forecast and whether the big time limit has run out or not before # b L( i" p- `: F5 B% k; v
judging a reverse move. Do not fail to consider the indications on Time, both from main tops
% m0 [" D" ^; ]9 mand bottoms, also Volume of Sales and position on Geometrical Angles.. j+ ~1 y8 h# |! N! R' h* p: U
. l1 f7 F3 g3 `0 p& l& T: Q" dA daily chart gives the first short change, which may run for 7 to 10 days; the Weekly Chart
7 w$ Z; W9 h/ n4 Xgives the next important change in trend; and the Monthly the strongest. Remember, weekly& i; H; v( X. I9 O+ ?8 \1 a" d; g
moves run 3 to 7 weeks, monthly moves 2 to 3 months or more, according to the yearly cycle,
: i1 L" i! Y& s+ rbefore reversing.
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/ q# h$ x n; H, F' j6 l0 p% vYearly bottoms and tops: it is important to know whether a stock is making higher or lower % t5 f$ \* o L @; ^3 d# @' L }
bottoms each year. For instance, if a stock has made a higher bottom each year for five years,
( ]) g t5 l4 c/ ethen makes a lower bottom than the previous year, it is a sign of reversal and may mark a long : z# J( R$ u2 T
down cycle. The same rule applies when stocks are making lower tops for a number of years / v# h! n/ v5 |: V6 v
in a bear market.
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When extreme advances or declines occur, the first time the market reverses over 1/4 to 1/2 of
' ~9 z! a# Q: ?( P! F, h8 Jthe distance covered in the previous movement, you consider that the trend has changed, at
3 J1 w/ N1 S3 F$ o1 e2 @least temporarily.4 N, ^" S" h9 ~/ ]% L
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It is important to watch space movements. When Time is running out one way or the other,
& W" L! A& t' z v3 e, Mspace movements will show a reversal by breaking back over 1/4, 1/3 or 1/2 of the distance of 6 c. q% g6 ^3 `# H
the last move from extreme low to extreme high, which indicates that the main trend has # \" Z1 ^0 P& l( H
changed.# ^/ M# o5 Q& @/ I1 T# y7 o
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Study all the instructions and rules that I have given you; read them over several times, as 6 e# h& a1 M% n, Z
each time they will become clearer to you. Study the charts and work out the rules in actual
$ n: u' u% W0 k8 R: G. vpractice as well as on past performance. In this way, you will make progress and will realize
8 n( ~, q. H1 P% U: g' L5 _/ V5 B4 C2 `and appreciate the value of my Method of Forecasting.
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发表于 2009-4-30 10:58:01
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楼主
发表于 2009-4-30 11:22:23
哦，原来是007兄！
发表于 2009-5-3 10:30:27
发表于 2009-5-4 12:51:27
