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江恩如是说(4)——年度预测

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发表于 2009-5-2 22:48:11 | 只看该作者 回帖奖励 |正序浏览 |阅读模式
说明:
8 ^, ~& C. s. F: t$ f6 j1.首发。转载请注明出处——
阳光飞狐/江恩理论;当然还有译者。谢谢!0 v# B7 M& K) Z: N4 j
2.译文乃
初稿,未校稿,仅供参考!
+ A! z9 T/ z: }# b; P0 y, _-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
9 O, q& d, I& Z; O+ b( J# w原文:
& W8 z/ m# L4 h5 ?3 @HOW TO MAKE UP ANNUAL FORECASTS
# ^/ }2 M! f$ d) d# @( j( S" x0 r  s* S. S
I  have  stated  before  that  the  future  is  but  a  repetition  of  the  past;  therefore,  to make  up  a
) z$ }1 a: ?  D, x+ v; G0 Iforecast of the future, you must refer to the previous cycles.# r. b1 s, O. ]3 u' E: }% z

0 F% e: N& l4 K* R7 {+ v7 \The  previous  10-year  cycle  and  20-year  cycle  have  the  most  effect  in  the  future,  but  in ! V, Y! f4 b1 i& O1 u
completing  a  forecast,  it  is  best  to  have  30-years  past  record  to  check  out,  as  important " _9 w$ S0 b, V9 K
changes occur at  the end of 30-year cycles.    In making up my 1935 Forecast on the general ( p) o8 u1 V; K, J: \/ D# Z5 M
market, I checked the years 1905, 1915, and 1925.  For the 1929 forecast, I compared 1919 –
- N/ ^' x- u; j' v  ^  T! I; T! b10 years back, 1909 –  20 years back, 1899 –  30 years back, and 1869 –  60 years back,  the
) [2 ~$ X$ j/ v# J& W/ _  H) dGreat Cycle.) `& h2 [" T. r2 y
$ z4 ?, o* W) C, F+ D2 o* V. {3 F
You should also watch 5, 7, 15, and 50-year periods to see  if  the market  is repeating one of 3 @! c# x& S7 c5 x) ^8 L( [
them closely.- N; u7 K& e* l6 r
$ T8 N1 U+ q, i" X0 P" O
MASTER 20-YEAR FORECASTING CHART+ ~% E! Q; [/ R0 {1 h, M
1831 –  1935
6 S4 m8 @" U# A' B( k! B$ fIn  order  to make  up  an  annual  forecast,  you must  refer  to my Master  20-year  Forecasting
7 c! m) ^8 ~$ Z' D# D, MChart and see how the cycles have worked out and repeated in the past.
! M' t9 Z4 X% I
; b0 D4 R) z  c4 QAnd stated before, the 20-year cycle is the most important cycle for forecasting future market
8 A7 C' E9 e$ P# _, G5 C$ zmovements.    It  is  one-third  of  the  60  year  cycle  and  when  three  20-year  cycles  run  out,
# S# `7 n, f6 ^2 M- Cimportant bull and bear campaigns terminate.
4 U# _5 T! S5 \0 U+ f7 D1 }/ g7 `6 D9 c9 a' M
In order  for you  to  see  and  study how  the cycles  repeat,  I have made of  a chart of 20-year
; s1 ^+ x$ I6 T0 e# ncycles, beginning with the year 1831.   To show all of the cycles from 1831 to date, we have ! p# }/ r8 u5 @$ d3 K) V
carried through on this chart the monthly high and low on railroad and canal stocks from 1831) B3 b) |; ]: J
to 1855.   Beginning with 1856 we have used  the W. D. Gann Averages on  railroad  stocks 8 b' i% S) d' b6 Z. y9 q
until  the beginning of  the Dow-Jones Averages  in 1896.   After  that we have used  the Dow-$ f, J8 t, @/ N9 v. X9 A
Jones Industrial Stock Averages.- d( E# c; b. S( q
4 r: h% j* C* c( J% A4 @/ K
After the end of the 20-year cycle in 1860,+ c% G# f& o$ T% p' B/ F. w6 Y- r
the next cycle begins at 1861 and runs to 1880,
& r8 ]" w* x2 }* y: {3 N9 S: |the next cycle begins at 1881 and runs to 1900," l' d9 G4 g; a
the next cycle begins at 1901 and runs to 1920,
9 O/ O! g3 {. `% V  e. L* B8 ^) z) }# gthe next cycle begins at 1921 and runs to 1940.
  w. D0 N. D, [5 R+ Q+ e' l* c; W5 F/ P* T, _& ?3 W4 b+ W
By  placing  the monthly  high  and  low  prices  for  each  of  these  20-year  periods  above  each
# B2 E  N6 G, \other, it is easy to see how the cycles repeat.  The year of the cycles are marked from "1" to
; z6 b& a: g  I"20".   Study  the chart and note what happened  in  the 8th and 9th year of each cycle –   that : _  G9 p3 o& L; b& D
extreme high prices have always been reached.  For example:$ G6 U* |1 m2 v) U: d8 A- g
* @' S8 ~% M- d& M
1929 FORECAST5 y: y  Z7 I! [+ _4 W  s
According  to my discovery of  the 60-year  cycle,  I had  figured  that 1929 would  repeat  like # H. G& g$ W. o) e- R" b. R% ?
1869, 1909, and 1919.  Looking back 20 years, we find that top was reached in August, 1909,
  s& _8 G- s( [+ _8 f: Land 60 years before, top was reached in July, 1869.  If you will read my Annual Forecast for / O: b. z. C8 ?" D1 Q
1929, you will see that I had figured the top must come not later than the end of August and 6 B  u1 r+ ~# t6 t6 N
stated that a "Black Friday" would come  in September.   Following strictly  the 1869  top, the 4 J' J; A1 y# f; d/ C( J
top would have come in July, 1929, and some stocks did make top at that time.  Following the % d8 o: e# o( `) m, A
1909  top,  we  could  expect  top  in  August,  and  the  actual  high  of  the  averages  and many
0 I, D+ Z! q; |1 b6 ^individual stocks was reached on September 3, 1929.   Going back  to 1919, we find  that  the
" e: {7 J3 e+ [8 b/ [7 h& MAverages made first top in July and a big decline followed, but extreme high was made in the
! v/ v; a7 P& U% X; t- O  @- e6 cearly part of November.# [, m2 A9 i0 d4 B) U- D
: ^3 X' ?! R' f6 p+ D4 Y. n7 h( R
From all of these tops –  1869, 1909, and 1919 –  sharp declines followed in the fall of the year, 1 o7 _& d+ L, M7 @$ Y; i
just as they did in 1929.  Therefore, you see how easy it was to follow this great advance and / S2 E6 b2 s: Z# s
determine when it would culminate.   There is no other way, outside of using  the 20 and 60-0 ^( f/ o4 d) h9 r; d
year cycle that we could have forecast this great bull campaign and its culmination so closely
* z0 E9 V* j" Hin 1929.
8 P! j5 u; _  C+ I' Q/ u) V( C
/ j# x8 S, k; U: e/ M+ J+ @6 M8 Z1869-73 VS. 1929-33
( Q8 [& K' P7 m; B& }6 d/ l. uAfter the 1869 top, stocks continued to decline and reached low in November, 1873.  See how % `; I' M9 @) n! {. M
many other bottoms were reached around this time in other cycles.  After the big decline from
  T* G$ R2 O( l/ o' S1929, notice that in October, 1933, the last low was reached on the Dow-Jones averages; then
4 U+ \2 K. F3 g& `. [3 j5 mfollowed an advance to new high levels, crossing the top of July, 1933.* U' z/ E1 |: w. }. v( O

) m1 ]5 x* P! }8 Y9 E3 X1935 FORECAST9 e8 A2 Q# L+ W+ M9 O  ]9 w" x
Figuring out the Forecast for 1935, we see on this 20-year Chart that we are running against & s! j* c0 E" M2 H$ o
1855, 1875, 1895, 1915.   Therefore, we  look  to see what happened  in those years.   We find8 v. l2 j* z& t, o- T
that in 1895, the high was reached in September, in 1915, the high of the year was reached in
% u. v! F, A, e0 t( SDecember.- L- `0 A: D) F2 y) r, l" y
& o3 b2 R" \" ?& b" {
Then,  look  back  at  1865,  1885,  1905,  and  1925,  the  years  in  the  5th  zone  or  the  10-year 2 C. u. i% p2 S  P( Y
cycles. We  find  that  in  1865  the  high  was  reached  in  October;  in  1905  the  high  was  in
  \8 l; P4 f* n7 X2 }October: in 1925 the high was in November.: Q; ~/ T" H* j1 G: Q/ ]
6 J; d; Q" k7 [8 ?' n4 j& Y
Then, we would have a good guide in making out the Forecast for 1935, and we would know
1 F: U; ~" D) {what months  to watch  for  top and a change  in  trend.   My Annual Forecast  for 1935, which ! t! M; f7 B3 k, I9 Q
was  made  up  in  October,  1934,  indicated  top  for  October  28  and  a  secondary  top  for
% @0 c: `. }: z/ @7 q+ TNovember 15-16, 1935.3 a$ b: S" U2 }
3 L: P7 ?/ u. Y" h# e
There are other ways of using this Chart to advantage.  One method of determining the trend
! K' C7 E4 S  C2 e) Xis  to compare  the years of previous  cycles  in  the  same  zone.   For  example: after  the Dow-* E) X" A, p2 n9 Z: b) U% f
Jones 30  Industrial Averages  crossed 108  in May, 1935,  they were  above  the  average high * i! A3 Q: t  F8 l" L
price of all  the previous years in the 15th-year zone.   Therefore, the market indicated higher 0 b) r' N) Y) O5 _( P* `0 y
prices and showed that there would be a bull campaign.5 o8 w+ z4 a5 m# u: q: T6 g2 I# z

* D9 y, B% i4 R6 e; B1936 FORECAST7 ^5 ~- k$ x: x5 _
If we wish  to make up a  forecast  for  the year 1936, we compare  the years  in  the 16th year
2 R$ d2 \5 Y6 t. yzone, viz. 1856, 1876, 1896, and 1916.  As 60 years back is a very important cycle, we look at
. E$ q- n/ Z) D9 N5 h0 F1876 first, then 1896, and 1916.
" s6 E( ]/ F6 W3 C2 x" E) Q, }
9 }9 J, I4 o! ?  p1876 - We find that the averages run up and reach high in March; then decline to the end of % g6 A3 k0 n1 |  r/ P1 q) F
the year.
- ~  t$ T2 x, y
' ~$ N4 P* n  i, P  f  u2 U+ n1896 - Next,  we  look  at  1896,  which  is  40  years  back,  or  two  20-year  cycles,  a  very 3 U) _; i, ~# b3 j
important presidential election year, just as 1936 will be.   We find that there was a   ]# T" _* R- r: }$ k
moderate  rally  into February, a decline  to March,  then a  small  rally  to May,  from 8 ]! \6 O( X* n1 A
which a panicky decline followed, culminating on August 8, 1896, with the averages
+ {) L: o7 e; f8 W: n1 z& Aat  the  lowest  levels  in years.   From  that point, a bull campaign started, with prices
$ {& U/ h0 |4 \8 `7 @working higher to December.
+ I4 J, R  Q- k2 P
1 c& y5 x2 Y* R4 d1916 - The next important cycle is 20 years later, or 1916.  We find that prices declined in 7 ]2 S& M' |1 n- D8 d
January,  rallied moderately  in  February,  then  declined  sharply  to April,  rallied  to 5 V/ D. t! v& U- e9 J/ g5 H, @
June,  then  declined  and  made  bottom  in  July,  from  which  a  big  bull  campaign
& |4 z  Z% |; c8 {# [  k6 C4 M3 `started,  making  top  in  November,  1916,  in  a  war  market.    A  panicky  decline
' V' u" f* [' Jfollowed from the latter part of November into December.
1 B0 B) O; H6 @3 |3 w3 O, |4 W% U. }* A6 x. w! h
This completes our comparison of  the 60, 40, and 20-year cycles back from 1936. Next, we 8 E( }* ~) J% l( V& y- o
look at the cycles on the other side of the Chart, in the 6th year of the 20-year cycle, or the 6th   ^9 U; I  \) L6 t0 ~9 S5 s
zone, of the 10-year cycles.  These years are 1866, 1886, 1906, and 1926.1 y0 e! I5 `/ I1 [# r1 R6 g

4 e1 o) S% m3 C$ S/ T1866 - We find  that  in 1866  there was a sharp decline,  reaching bottom  in February;  then 3 o5 ~* e2 Z' c% q6 M
an advance, with top of the year in October.
0 g- c- F" }/ u. V( a# m, g1886 - We find a sharp decline and bottom in January, a moderate rally into March, then a
4 e- y9 j- p8 V4 @7 \' psharp decline to new lows in May; a sharp advance, reaching high in November, and # }8 ]8 A1 G4 Y! h) P( [' }
a sharp decline in December.! J1 e' ^: u7 B+ w/ X3 Z
. |3 |; }. A) f* v5 @
1906 - The  next  important  cycle  to  consider  is  1906.    In  that  year,  the  great McKinley
  R% ~7 n$ p+ Q. c. A" m5 Bboom, which began in 1896, culminated.  The railroad averages reached the highest
# O) f% w8 m& q# G! N8 N( rprice in history up to that time.  From the high of January, a sharp decline followed & ?8 J; {. m  Z8 N
to May.   Much of  this selling was caused by  the San Francisco earthquake.   Then,
4 S4 @( c' Q& p- \# Zthere was  a  rally  into  June,  followed  by  a  sharp  decline  to  low  in  July, with  the - J. ?  k0 c6 I( w" g
bottom  just  slightly  higher  than  the  low  of May.    From  this  low  there  was  an ) }' c( ], g$ i5 F) s* a
advance  to  September,  when  another  top  was  made,  but  lower  than  the  top  in
: a2 U" l' O; }January; then followed a decline into December and a panic followed in 1907.' U2 m) `8 Q. k
" }) F# ]6 o+ j7 w8 _" S  A9 V
1926 - The next important 10-year cycle to consider is 1926, when the great Coolidge bull
3 g: L- o5 _7 K9 }7 ]campaign  was  underway.    From  the  low  in  December,  1925,  stocks  rallied  to
2 c5 q" d: X) P7 X, kFebruary, 1926; then had a sharp decline into March, some stocks breaking as much ) t/ T/ o- s# I1 R( p7 O
as  100  points.    From  this  bottom  there was  a  sharp  advance  to  new  high  levels,
* m( z) X( F7 I, B7 O) dreaching  top  in  August;  then  another  sharp  decline  to  bottom  in  October,  from " s9 ?! V+ A8 D1 t) C1 D9 Q- }6 J
which a rally followed to December, but stocks did not get back to the high reached
6 Q, g+ w! ?2 |6 j4 ~. O& gin August that year.
% z4 C/ `) Z! ?2 K2 `  Q. B$ o* w+ j
5 j; z( q( ?- V3 S# H0 jNow, when I get ready to make up my Forecast for 1936, I will consider all of the cycles.  I : z. f: l; t# ]; y
will go back and also check the 7-year cycles, the 14-year and 15-year cycles, which is half of % A8 R% ?  M# I0 C
the  30-year  cycle.    But,  at  this  writing,  with my  knowledge  and  experience  of  the  future / \: o+ S8 o& Z: @! {& t
cycles, I expect the 1896 cycle to repeat in 1936.
2 I( i6 k  l/ i; C5 k' U5 J. }3 J# E# [7 g' ?8 r2 h- q7 Z7 A
1936 is likely to be a very uncertain election year just as it was in 1896, when the Bryan silver ! ?5 Q; l, o: T6 O
scare caused a panicky decline  into August.   There  is a possibility of a  three-cornered fight, ; t3 b+ \3 d! P" B# K% a8 Q
with two Democratic presidential candidates and one Republican.  There certainly is going to : J* ^& {( o/ D
be a time during 1936 when the investors are going to get scared and speculators are going to
4 p0 g, e! \# d; e; f# _/ ~) v' G! nget scared and sell stocks, causing sharp declines.
4 Z6 |2 L' s; ~* {* R5 H' q. i
, H! f6 ]0 s, j# i, VMy opinion, at this writing, is that the first decline will start in the month of January and wind
1 K5 k" s: I5 Mup with a  sharp decline.   February –   the market may drift along  in a narrow,  trading  range
0 }' Q1 Z9 y" k7 I$ ywith some rallies, but there will be another decline in the month of March, just as there was in 5 Y5 g6 G8 X: g1 h% j
1926.    I  am  confident  that  there  will  be  another  break  in  the  months  of May  and  June,
- c) C" Q9 O8 K  @9 q! h4 s" \1 {especially in the latter half of May, as this will be running out four years from the 1932 low : n# M7 L2 X5 F5 r1 {$ n; q( O
and 6 years from April, 1930 high, all of which are indications of important changes in trend.
8 Z- l3 q/ I$ C- p" t  P
- t" U3 W4 a8 V0 ?We know  that presidential nominations will  take place  in  July,  therefore  this  is  a month  to
+ M6 w2 b. s( r8 |5 rwatch for uncertainties and declines, unless sharp declines have come before that  time.   The ) L( N! X$ u7 b- R2 W/ x! f
ending of the cycle from 1896 in August is quite important and regardless of how high or how , c; B% i) I; G0 V
low stocks are, there are likely to be some sharp declines before the end of August.  Again, in
& u' r9 w" d& i  Ethe last half of September, uncertain conditions and possibility of sharp declines are indicated.  
6 v+ a, K) T) d+ I' C. UThis may mark the last low and an election rally may start if there are indications of a change
1 h6 {9 }8 j& X( m% rin Administration by the election of a Republican president, which, I believe, at this writing, 6 }/ O9 x& S8 \4 M" C: u
will happen." r; z3 I' ?$ p# K% j
9 d# q0 i- A; O" i/ H+ g3 C& t, c6 a& g
September, October, and November are all important because these months are 7 years from
3 k* L' e( ~9 w& Ythe top in September, 1929 and 7 years from the panicky decline in October and November, 5 [3 e8 r9 K7 {
1929.   I would expect a rally to  take place after  the election in November, which would last 5 s; b1 O. M7 |! D1 Q$ U" b1 s: `
anyway until the early part of December.  If conditions show signs of improvement and if the . N4 \4 {5 x, N0 C, K7 E& X2 T9 a
people  are  satisfied  with  the  man  elected,  then  the  advance  will  probably  continue  into ( ^3 P$ p$ F& N  E
December, with high prices around the end of the year.
+ a. b! L; m. y$ l, I+ ^% a" V$ x
This  is merely a general outline  that  I am giving without completing all of my calculations
0 [; T; c) M! w5 ~9 oand making up the Annual Forecast in detail.2 e/ Q1 w, Z* b$ X6 |: B) B% l
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 n4 g( S; _( O  W1 ?/ x/ C
译文:

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29#
发表于 2009-5-16 07:52:26 | 只看该作者
谢谢分享
28#
发表于 2009-5-4 15:15:26 | 只看该作者
谢谢分享
27#
发表于 2009-5-4 13:11:42 | 只看该作者
带彩的。。。

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26#
发表于 2009-5-4 12:56:46 | 只看该作者

难道不应该配上这附图???

江恩百年预测图
4 s3 i1 H1 x/ j4 B+ u

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25#
发表于 2009-5-4 11:55:35 | 只看该作者
以前没有读到过, 谢谢。) `% o; n- w5 G. [: {" q$ [2 V+ D
老江真牛,这才是预测。; n8 q- o  V9 P* P2 k, ^
学习。
24#
发表于 2009-5-4 11:46:40 | 只看该作者
谢谢分享
23#
发表于 2009-5-4 10:05:39 | 只看该作者
谢谢甘恩兄
22#
发表于 2009-5-4 10:01:19 | 只看该作者
好好看看
21#
发表于 2009-5-4 09:09:13 | 只看该作者
20#
发表于 2009-5-4 08:17:47 | 只看该作者
支持楼主发帖,新手好好学习。
19#
发表于 2009-5-4 07:21:58 | 只看该作者
谢谢甘恩兄: W1 G4 B# O9 f7 k8 `+ m/ h. A% w
18#
发表于 2009-5-4 02:47:53 | 只看该作者
奇文共赏
17#
发表于 2009-5-3 21:43:39 | 只看该作者
谢谢提供
16#
发表于 2009-5-3 20:46:45 | 只看该作者
要学的东西太多,谢谢提供
15#
发表于 2009-5-3 14:29:54 | 只看该作者
谢谢
14#
发表于 2009-5-3 12:57:47 | 只看该作者
中央红军1934年10月16日离开瑞金开始了长征之路
) g/ j& z5 q8 b- U; }8 ~历史上的 9 d, S% y' q' w- ~+ |+ q8 {+ h+ z
* S6 c) A( J! q" q5 p3 o; ~
如果再结合星相,自然如虎添翼,不用这样麻烦~~~
13#
发表于 2009-5-3 11:18:50 | 只看该作者
支持楼主发贴。。

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12#
发表于 2009-5-3 10:34:18 | 只看该作者
谢谢. & ^* m# z4 D) g* G
谢谢.
& w% q9 u5 z+ y谢谢.
11#
发表于 2009-5-3 10:21:13 | 只看该作者
原帖由 甘恩 于 2009-5-2 14:48 发表
* D! W2 b2 s, [2 ]说明:
& z) {  e4 }: W8 A1.首发。转载请注明出处——阳光飞狐/江恩理论;当然还有译者。谢谢!  i' f- X4 g1 i
2.译文乃初稿,未校稿,仅供参考!; b2 {& t& t0 C' X
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多读几遍江恩描述的! 或许就是大家天天都在做的事!
, K4 Z  o3 j1 S+ o% P+ P; q不要再搞的过于神秘!3 r& u# ~4 @$ g8 ~

5 }3 D/ V  \9 j" U" W% ?& ~, v, N[ 本帖最后由 yay 于 2009-5-3 02:25 编辑 ]

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10#
发表于 2009-5-3 09:53:30 | 只看该作者
支持楼主发贴。。

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9#
发表于 2009-5-3 08:57:05 | 只看该作者
谢谢甘恩兄- j* k/ u, |/ r* ~

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8#
发表于 2009-5-3 08:43:14 | 只看该作者
谢谢!!支持甘恩兄的帖子!!

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7#
发表于 2009-5-3 00:10:26 | 只看该作者
谢谢,

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6#
发表于 2009-5-2 23:08:16 | 只看该作者
谢谢

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5#
发表于 2009-5-2 22:59:15 | 只看该作者
     感谢

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4#
 楼主| 发表于 2009-5-2 22:58:21 | 只看该作者
原帖由 天蓝蓝 于 2009-5-2 22:55 发表 $ L" S. A$ ~- }3 _
你这是第几章第几节?请标上!
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勤勤手吧——用一下PDF的搜索功能!!
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发表于 2009-5-2 22:55:13 | 只看该作者
你这是第几章第几节?请标上!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-5-2 22:52:05 | 只看该作者
桃兄真是快枪手!
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# O! d3 J+ j: y# E1 `9 g[ 本帖最后由 甘恩 于 2009-5-2 22:53 编辑 ]

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