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9 D+ k/ N5 u( m4 T' @: [原文:
' z: Q* N0 H8 g# Y; dHOW TO MAKE UP ANNUAL FORECASTS5 ]0 T- N P* u5 l" r0 Q
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I have stated before that the future is but a repetition of the past; therefore, to make up a
! {/ V* W. B/ H* B) h% Kforecast of the future, you must refer to the previous cycles.' G! n. N1 \) ^ l" A0 ]1 j$ R
( h3 U7 z) J6 w/ k+ P! v' `4 PThe previous 10-year cycle and 20-year cycle have the most effect in the future, but in
& U9 k5 h/ F s. Hcompleting a forecast, it is best to have 30-years past record to check out, as important
# X0 B7 n: p: M$ x' Zchanges occur at the end of 30-year cycles. In making up my 1935 Forecast on the general 6 |" w6 _- v! p Q. @7 t
market, I checked the years 1905, 1915, and 1925. For the 1929 forecast, I compared 1919 –
- [! e; D2 c( e10 years back, 1909 – 20 years back, 1899 – 30 years back, and 1869 – 60 years back, the 7 [9 Y5 y' r" H8 E: o/ |" d9 ~' q
Great Cycle.
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+ @5 ?: y. B! o4 l; t. [You should also watch 5, 7, 15, and 50-year periods to see if the market is repeating one of
" }% T) R; C% f2 ?& u+ Y: kthem closely.4 I& V4 h4 }6 R: J; Y2 E" b7 L
$ r! E, W. r. X+ U6 _" S* N7 Y) i: YMASTER 20-YEAR FORECASTING CHART- |& H6 B! W7 h- l
1831 – 19357 L- o& {% t9 b
In order to make up an annual forecast, you must refer to my Master 20-year Forecasting
: @1 U1 R4 ]6 fChart and see how the cycles have worked out and repeated in the past.
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And stated before, the 20-year cycle is the most important cycle for forecasting future market
2 D# M- w _5 e$ X' w0 ~movements. It is one-third of the 60 year cycle and when three 20-year cycles run out,
9 @' [: e. [/ {( l. Oimportant bull and bear campaigns terminate.
6 X2 O* y1 k, F7 I
/ } g" v0 d, P* {2 }) bIn order for you to see and study how the cycles repeat, I have made of a chart of 20-year . ~* O% P0 q, n7 P+ F; y
cycles, beginning with the year 1831. To show all of the cycles from 1831 to date, we have 7 o, E8 [/ E& Y: a3 U& F
carried through on this chart the monthly high and low on railroad and canal stocks from 18310 H2 \% B% ]/ L5 R, }
to 1855. Beginning with 1856 we have used the W. D. Gann Averages on railroad stocks ) u8 k; M/ B+ G1 r$ f' A+ _
until the beginning of the Dow-Jones Averages in 1896. After that we have used the Dow-
$ b; Q3 ]9 {2 ~) V& C2 dJones Industrial Stock Averages.; a4 W% ?2 \$ s
, n6 @" ~4 Z+ G( u
After the end of the 20-year cycle in 1860,
# x3 I6 Y' M0 n, [, y4 s6 O" Athe next cycle begins at 1861 and runs to 1880,
) a+ |- ?# y' A, Q* e0 jthe next cycle begins at 1881 and runs to 1900,) U0 t7 E1 G0 W! f. h
the next cycle begins at 1901 and runs to 1920,& t) A) y4 f3 j% u; j+ x ~+ G) d
the next cycle begins at 1921 and runs to 1940.
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8 o( n( J. c U8 IBy placing the monthly high and low prices for each of these 20-year periods above each 6 _: H/ p/ ]9 q1 A" \) R; C
other, it is easy to see how the cycles repeat. The year of the cycles are marked from "1" to 0 [0 m' p1 f2 K% o& v" h
"20". Study the chart and note what happened in the 8th and 9th year of each cycle – that . M. Q0 A+ L7 j1 ~5 N m
extreme high prices have always been reached. For example:
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; {7 W- i1 j; j7 N& S$ S/ y, c& Q1929 FORECAST
& ? e; d# s9 {6 H0 _3 E- X( i3 ?According to my discovery of the 60-year cycle, I had figured that 1929 would repeat like
' z& m! W: l* O+ m# |1869, 1909, and 1919. Looking back 20 years, we find that top was reached in August, 1909, ; m; D( U x0 l3 j: m- p
and 60 years before, top was reached in July, 1869. If you will read my Annual Forecast for 6 X1 f# n7 n" _
1929, you will see that I had figured the top must come not later than the end of August and
$ g0 H1 f, J) n, s) ustated that a "Black Friday" would come in September. Following strictly the 1869 top, the ' m+ w! l- T3 P* x2 {3 N
top would have come in July, 1929, and some stocks did make top at that time. Following the - v5 v) ^, ]% }, p0 L x1 U! X
1909 top, we could expect top in August, and the actual high of the averages and many
! x+ \1 b" q! t, C: z- }7 O h8 oindividual stocks was reached on September 3, 1929. Going back to 1919, we find that the
6 g" g- U) F9 K' Z/ E& `Averages made first top in July and a big decline followed, but extreme high was made in the
- |. {, \* Z( M% o7 Iearly part of November.
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6 _$ |1 x, W h5 t# NFrom all of these tops – 1869, 1909, and 1919 – sharp declines followed in the fall of the year, : k5 T5 e- f+ G. U0 Z# x
just as they did in 1929. Therefore, you see how easy it was to follow this great advance and . S: y# e$ E) i& X5 _' }
determine when it would culminate. There is no other way, outside of using the 20 and 60-
6 f4 |$ @1 b1 s6 Hyear cycle that we could have forecast this great bull campaign and its culmination so closely 0 \+ L" w4 E+ r. ]' Z
in 1929.
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* X" f0 V/ w6 X8 I1869-73 VS. 1929-33
. b [% U* x/ X! fAfter the 1869 top, stocks continued to decline and reached low in November, 1873. See how
9 h" s- c4 v; G- nmany other bottoms were reached around this time in other cycles. After the big decline from - H0 Q" B, Y: S) F0 n' k0 w Q
1929, notice that in October, 1933, the last low was reached on the Dow-Jones averages; then
' \4 _! W, p1 k3 O1 L% a8 mfollowed an advance to new high levels, crossing the top of July, 1933.
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- n! [# r' `( [' T, @1935 FORECAST! R6 w, B# m" }( N& h7 n9 n0 U' |
Figuring out the Forecast for 1935, we see on this 20-year Chart that we are running against ( z$ I; H! A: ], P' _) v8 ~; n+ Y
1855, 1875, 1895, 1915. Therefore, we look to see what happened in those years. We find
2 B# {) E# A" ^1 k' @/ s2 T' T; ethat in 1895, the high was reached in September, in 1915, the high of the year was reached in 5 d& W8 o2 S5 a' D- u3 l
December.
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Then, look back at 1865, 1885, 1905, and 1925, the years in the 5th zone or the 10-year / B+ t/ p" D L% L% t0 M4 r& |
cycles. We find that in 1865 the high was reached in October; in 1905 the high was in ! i2 S# ~+ U: g s
October: in 1925 the high was in November.# N* B4 w/ Z) x9 R5 E1 |- } M) c
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Then, we would have a good guide in making out the Forecast for 1935, and we would know % E1 `1 F: P5 {5 t
what months to watch for top and a change in trend. My Annual Forecast for 1935, which
: v4 A9 @" @7 f% w. B( rwas made up in October, 1934, indicated top for October 28 and a secondary top for 0 U6 R0 f+ n: p& L8 u
November 15-16, 1935.2 a) N* v8 A C! s. N8 I# V3 m
( c$ T# U* [3 i) M6 m; YThere are other ways of using this Chart to advantage. One method of determining the trend 9 r$ d& Q, Z1 q: K8 T5 g q% p
is to compare the years of previous cycles in the same zone. For example: after the Dow-9 H1 m" x& D+ p" i
Jones 30 Industrial Averages crossed 108 in May, 1935, they were above the average high F# F. F' k; k! k
price of all the previous years in the 15th-year zone. Therefore, the market indicated higher
r7 t2 u9 Z/ `* `prices and showed that there would be a bull campaign.: Q# j; u( R+ A! L6 c
' c0 f' K" r' m8 q9 Q4 Z+ Y1936 FORECAST
9 t$ ?% N# W, _: [8 O3 t! T) YIf we wish to make up a forecast for the year 1936, we compare the years in the 16th year ) b; m M2 w; B* P" H
zone, viz. 1856, 1876, 1896, and 1916. As 60 years back is a very important cycle, we look at , u$ A# ?+ h# A9 x
1876 first, then 1896, and 1916.
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1876 - We find that the averages run up and reach high in March; then decline to the end of
e8 W9 K5 m: ?, q6 [the year.
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0 L6 |4 ?" b9 t6 k% d$ ]& s" o1896 - Next, we look at 1896, which is 40 years back, or two 20-year cycles, a very ( n/ M1 c0 z& C! ~
important presidential election year, just as 1936 will be. We find that there was a ! _! V, ]1 i- U" Y- r
moderate rally into February, a decline to March, then a small rally to May, from 5 F" [% k5 H% ` @% ]
which a panicky decline followed, culminating on August 8, 1896, with the averages 3 F# u+ I; x# ?& w1 V
at the lowest levels in years. From that point, a bull campaign started, with prices
( \; j, j6 `% @# h3 z" p* H- lworking higher to December., [, z7 K0 {! j9 M6 M% f# n
5 i, x; D) p: h
1916 - The next important cycle is 20 years later, or 1916. We find that prices declined in 4 i6 k1 Q3 H! a& z' K$ U9 \
January, rallied moderately in February, then declined sharply to April, rallied to
; L' k- q2 ?: N# BJune, then declined and made bottom in July, from which a big bull campaign : ~9 D4 M) N0 k, B2 K
started, making top in November, 1916, in a war market. A panicky decline + M. D" j: d5 R/ |% S% M& ~
followed from the latter part of November into December.
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This completes our comparison of the 60, 40, and 20-year cycles back from 1936. Next, we
6 G" g- t4 e" L6 l4 D! \0 T+ llook at the cycles on the other side of the Chart, in the 6th year of the 20-year cycle, or the 6th # J: D! w7 X) f8 x2 A% H3 w) ]" h
zone, of the 10-year cycles. These years are 1866, 1886, 1906, and 1926.: Y. k+ I; Y, K% E2 q$ r0 U+ }- j
( h; _$ m t4 Z% d0 K1866 - We find that in 1866 there was a sharp decline, reaching bottom in February; then
5 ~, T H2 S! C+ K& e/ van advance, with top of the year in October.
* s7 s6 i! i5 C3 C1886 - We find a sharp decline and bottom in January, a moderate rally into March, then a % U# ?+ l- ]1 w: T6 M
sharp decline to new lows in May; a sharp advance, reaching high in November, and 7 X- B0 c1 H X7 |5 V9 m' f$ @
a sharp decline in December.
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1906 - The next important cycle to consider is 1906. In that year, the great McKinley , P9 V" d; o. _1 P" k! {
boom, which began in 1896, culminated. The railroad averages reached the highest 0 G! I$ u, c0 N9 B- p6 n2 Z
price in history up to that time. From the high of January, a sharp decline followed
9 u$ m& O! c: M. B o; r6 Fto May. Much of this selling was caused by the San Francisco earthquake. Then,
/ N, O1 @ z( g2 `5 @' sthere was a rally into June, followed by a sharp decline to low in July, with the 3 P' T, o" x3 t6 d/ [' O
bottom just slightly higher than the low of May. From this low there was an - N# h1 C% h( s( o
advance to September, when another top was made, but lower than the top in
4 {. k% I6 G1 `% Z# E1 tJanuary; then followed a decline into December and a panic followed in 1907.
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& k/ X$ a/ M8 _. M4 _ }1 l1926 - The next important 10-year cycle to consider is 1926, when the great Coolidge bull
( d+ ^( d' W" f: k+ r/ R8 z& D2 c/ hcampaign was underway. From the low in December, 1925, stocks rallied to # x0 H- I" i7 q; t' C" H- k
February, 1926; then had a sharp decline into March, some stocks breaking as much
- q/ J$ X f: Y; R$ n. b8 {- vas 100 points. From this bottom there was a sharp advance to new high levels,
( C+ V7 o5 `2 o O% Ereaching top in August; then another sharp decline to bottom in October, from 3 R+ U/ `, q2 Y
which a rally followed to December, but stocks did not get back to the high reached " M3 N- w. q% |4 y7 ?
in August that year.* F7 [( l+ e8 \4 c
! C6 s9 _; q0 v! D& b# z. B% eNow, when I get ready to make up my Forecast for 1936, I will consider all of the cycles. I
6 k% i0 m+ T9 F# e5 H/ o: Nwill go back and also check the 7-year cycles, the 14-year and 15-year cycles, which is half of
3 v; K# u5 H8 V8 h. B# g# R3 Tthe 30-year cycle. But, at this writing, with my knowledge and experience of the future $ S& M( C7 ~; c
cycles, I expect the 1896 cycle to repeat in 1936. {, R' M- H* f9 x9 ?* a
* a& y9 U7 _6 E/ J8 O; C1936 is likely to be a very uncertain election year just as it was in 1896, when the Bryan silver
8 q' m% u& Z/ wscare caused a panicky decline into August. There is a possibility of a three-cornered fight, 9 |; I- d6 @9 F, Z& y6 y/ Z3 `; E
with two Democratic presidential candidates and one Republican. There certainly is going to
" @6 i9 x0 h: y1 Tbe a time during 1936 when the investors are going to get scared and speculators are going to ; [/ _5 K8 Q6 _8 Y
get scared and sell stocks, causing sharp declines.
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My opinion, at this writing, is that the first decline will start in the month of January and wind & {8 a$ I4 ]/ ?, ?% H K; e
up with a sharp decline. February – the market may drift along in a narrow, trading range / T1 a$ E: p2 O0 s, k
with some rallies, but there will be another decline in the month of March, just as there was in
' M- |. o4 z" H1926. I am confident that there will be another break in the months of May and June,
& w! x% k. @' sespecially in the latter half of May, as this will be running out four years from the 1932 low 1 F; ~, M2 Y7 ?: ?( ^6 }- |
and 6 years from April, 1930 high, all of which are indications of important changes in trend.) G+ y% Y( y* y, e! E2 f7 G: m
7 F* n4 b4 N! S; c' L; e1 F
We know that presidential nominations will take place in July, therefore this is a month to
& W: s. S* J+ Jwatch for uncertainties and declines, unless sharp declines have come before that time. The
9 i6 S) {9 i9 z7 s- m2 _0 b/ i% yending of the cycle from 1896 in August is quite important and regardless of how high or how
2 ^! I! l C! P( L$ ilow stocks are, there are likely to be some sharp declines before the end of August. Again, in % ^ r1 z0 H! r* {( f2 r9 g* |; a
the last half of September, uncertain conditions and possibility of sharp declines are indicated. ' ?7 z& n8 K: d9 ~
This may mark the last low and an election rally may start if there are indications of a change
! Y% V; r' D" u( ^+ L5 c3 c. Fin Administration by the election of a Republican president, which, I believe, at this writing,
! ?7 C7 d9 Y' P" mwill happen.
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& N. G" Q1 Y }! w0 k- e3 S& J# b- dSeptember, October, and November are all important because these months are 7 years from
& M% }3 `- p7 g9 L; X# i. _- H( j$ R' Dthe top in September, 1929 and 7 years from the panicky decline in October and November, $ x) e+ I1 z+ q- q
1929. I would expect a rally to take place after the election in November, which would last
4 W! l: k6 M* M. U) @3 Uanyway until the early part of December. If conditions show signs of improvement and if the . H4 V- k6 W% ?
people are satisfied with the man elected, then the advance will probably continue into 2 r2 W1 J% m- v! V/ n5 a0 ^8 e5 _
December, with high prices around the end of the year.
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- W: Q8 b' P" Z; F) [0 Y) eThis is merely a general outline that I am giving without completing all of my calculations
t/ k$ X$ |9 U0 A: nand making up the Annual Forecast in detail.& ?+ F) `* @+ |" m
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