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, y% l4 t: }, ?! f3 S$ R原文：
! k n- N2 z R+ L4 l3 eIMPORTANT POINTS TO REMEMBER IN FORECASTING; t3 L" ~; W- s7 l8 p9 V
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TIME is the most important factor of all, and not until sufficient time has expired does any
2 _( c, }- P8 A! P8 o/ O# [big move up or down, start. The Time factor will overbalance both Space and Volume.
2 ]2 o9 q; E% |9 C+ }" s8 VWhen Time is up, space movement will start and big volume will begin, either up or down. * [ `- L. ~2 L- {* [
At the end of any big movement – with monthly, weekly, or daily – Time, must be allowed
% `0 w9 p' D1 xfor accumulation or distribution.
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Consider each individual stock and determine its trend from its position, according to distance N) V u, j" ?3 b$ P, j8 C K: A
in time from bottom or top. Each stock works out its 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 10, 15, 20, 30, 50 and 60-
+ ?. H2 Z+ g& J( \year cycles from its own base or bottoms and tops, regardless of the movements of other
8 c- b0 b( f+ T5 istocks, even those in the same group. Therefore, judge each stock individually and keep up ' b$ S+ G" l! p4 R7 A5 U' E' m
weekly and monthly charts on them.
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Never decide that the main trend has changed one way or the other without consulting the
- m% N+ v. S, W/ |8 c6 eangles from top or bottom and without considering the position of the market and cycle of
2 z. J& I' W6 Y/ V% t+ Geach individual stock.$ |2 b8 W" {' y9 T# h- i
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Always consider the annual forecast and whether the big time limit has run out or not before 7 C+ C) s% y3 L& A' S
judging a reverse move. Do not fail to consider the indications on Time, both from main tops e* s( T2 c/ u; h
and bottoms, also Volume of Sales and position on Geometrical Angles.
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A daily chart gives the first short change, which may run for 7 to 10 days; the Weekly Chart
6 l, L' I) Z7 Z7 E; Ugives the next important change in trend; and the Monthly the strongest. Remember, weekly
9 |% e" [2 K3 C& @3 K; v3 X2 Cmoves run 3 to 7 weeks, monthly moves 2 to 3 months or more, according to the yearly cycle, , _1 J0 O( o0 v7 z2 ~9 o0 I
before reversing.! `+ G: q. l- V% i- V; p
2 {, ]( k9 C% WYearly bottoms and tops: it is important to know whether a stock is making higher or lower # F7 @4 ^' r' a [. H
bottoms each year. For instance, if a stock has made a higher bottom each year for five years,
* a! B) G+ V$ e' m$ Qthen makes a lower bottom than the previous year, it is a sign of reversal and may mark a long
& N. O; W2 l$ a; [" w5 Ddown cycle. The same rule applies when stocks are making lower tops for a number of years " [5 \- e. i, @
in a bear market.
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" j" ^5 J# j, c6 f, m/ OWhen extreme advances or declines occur, the first time the market reverses over 1/4 to 1/2 of & X+ b/ K4 Y2 T- B( j7 q- ~; ?0 v
the distance covered in the previous movement, you consider that the trend has changed, at
+ W/ \4 ]7 P e* k; Lleast temporarily.
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It is important to watch space movements. When Time is running out one way or the other,
- p( }# W5 H8 W5 Y# V2 ~* I; j$ Xspace movements will show a reversal by breaking back over 1/4, 1/3 or 1/2 of the distance of
: D$ s! O7 }* i q* ? w; q6 sthe last move from extreme low to extreme high, which indicates that the main trend has
4 f; |+ Y! u1 @) q# T1 g+ ]' B# Schanged.
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' h/ ~3 u0 q5 ~* n% o% q$ Q5 oStudy all the instructions and rules that I have given you; read them over several times, as
. M9 @+ ^: {- e- Ieach time they will become clearer to you. Study the charts and work out the rules in actual
' I/ j" h/ c v6 x% F a# bpractice as well as on past performance. In this way, you will make progress and will realize ( t# L* @5 g) F6 p
and appreciate the value of my Method of Forecasting. Y+ n7 n5 i; X2 x( ]2 _
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