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原文：
4 U2 o- Q( e( _4 m. KIMPORTANT POINTS TO REMEMBER IN FORECASTING
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TIME is the most important factor of all, and not until sufficient time has expired does any * O) U' _) b( l: R, q1 I7 x5 T
big move up or down, start. The Time factor will overbalance both Space and Volume. 2 e8 f: y. j4 t2 E; |
When Time is up, space movement will start and big volume will begin, either up or down. ! W6 d6 }8 y- N/ Z2 z0 w6 n7 V* n
At the end of any big movement – with monthly, weekly, or daily – Time, must be allowed ! a& i# N, T3 Z( {) u* {7 A6 E6 x
for accumulation or distribution.
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Consider each individual stock and determine its trend from its position, according to distance . R/ b/ _ P* A* M+ i- e \
in time from bottom or top. Each stock works out its 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 10, 15, 20, 30, 50 and 60-
! o# c/ J1 ~0 w4 O, _0 @- L1 ~year cycles from its own base or bottoms and tops, regardless of the movements of other
+ U+ O7 D6 s! t; O4 M I. b6 Jstocks, even those in the same group. Therefore, judge each stock individually and keep up
6 t0 H3 ?/ v& x1 gweekly and monthly charts on them.+ V: {7 R9 h, d1 c" @ p" r) F1 B
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Never decide that the main trend has changed one way or the other without consulting the % ~) e7 I, [3 {- l! Y
angles from top or bottom and without considering the position of the market and cycle of
; p K# f9 s: R7 m! {* yeach individual stock.1 I- P) ~( Q* c9 j. B) @& f
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Always consider the annual forecast and whether the big time limit has run out or not before
. V0 K! X0 n) A1 n7 i4 |% ?judging a reverse move. Do not fail to consider the indications on Time, both from main tops
2 _; e' V6 `% b0 {7 F: gand bottoms, also Volume of Sales and position on Geometrical Angles.' L0 [: g, J0 a; G- S4 x/ U- ^
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A daily chart gives the first short change, which may run for 7 to 10 days; the Weekly Chart
, G; u6 Z* d! L/ r5 g) q' Ggives the next important change in trend; and the Monthly the strongest. Remember, weekly. J; _7 x0 W% c9 @) ?$ P2 P& o
moves run 3 to 7 weeks, monthly moves 2 to 3 months or more, according to the yearly cycle,
+ L' Z/ {# d8 m- d- Sbefore reversing.- \/ s7 e6 r, ]9 ~- r* \' f0 w4 v
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Yearly bottoms and tops: it is important to know whether a stock is making higher or lower
L1 s2 }; J) u7 Ibottoms each year. For instance, if a stock has made a higher bottom each year for five years, ; ]3 t7 K3 O3 y* |' Q
then makes a lower bottom than the previous year, it is a sign of reversal and may mark a long 9 z, ~3 r' n- w }$ `
down cycle. The same rule applies when stocks are making lower tops for a number of years
( a6 a$ e& B5 oin a bear market.& H }' `3 r% q, r
* Y6 d% ?* }( C$ T0 bWhen extreme advances or declines occur, the first time the market reverses over 1/4 to 1/2 of ' \ v3 b' g3 e
the distance covered in the previous movement, you consider that the trend has changed, at
- a2 [* s! Q$ x& X$ Y9 |' Jleast temporarily.
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It is important to watch space movements. When Time is running out one way or the other,
2 M) X7 J/ j! `' Ospace movements will show a reversal by breaking back over 1/4, 1/3 or 1/2 of the distance of
3 A' X) Y( j4 N% R% O4 H) g1 Athe last move from extreme low to extreme high, which indicates that the main trend has 9 ]6 z8 L' t' I* w; @) u
changed.2 Y' V1 `' {1 l6 c- W+ K3 A
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Study all the instructions and rules that I have given you; read them over several times, as . m: f! S E7 N! ?, W
each time they will become clearer to you. Study the charts and work out the rules in actual
* x# b$ n2 |0 [/ mpractice as well as on past performance. In this way, you will make progress and will realize
) R/ V- Y# _) _: r/ band appreciate the value of my Method of Forecasting.4 k0 R! w* `, [
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