说明：5 [/ I" q! f# s/ P0 b: J, C0 _4 X) O
1.首发。转载请注明出处——阳光飞狐/江恩理论；当然还有译者。谢谢！
0 z8 ?3 L* }7 K R# j/ k1 R4 b2.译文乃初稿，未校稿，仅供参考！9 Y5 T5 X2 M) R2 Q
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
6 ]% W! i* k8 s, E& F, j V, O( \, ?% [0 F原文：
h3 s* }1 A. l1 l; A7 I$ z# v0 I/ }7 rIMPORTANT POINTS TO REMEMBER IN FORECASTING
I K9 T3 j s5 c" B% v/ M9 `8 r% v; H9 C( \; S$ |
TIME is the most important factor of all, and not until sufficient time has expired does any
5 K4 i* h/ U( P: k& D' jbig move up or down, start. The Time factor will overbalance both Space and Volume.
6 G' o( m Y& T; x, |! SWhen Time is up, space movement will start and big volume will begin, either up or down.
0 @+ o1 I% c' pAt the end of any big movement – with monthly, weekly, or daily – Time, must be allowed
6 j( o* v) W9 r, ffor accumulation or distribution.
9 n2 I' [# E i" m V6 n# k, u- ~ Q5 N
Consider each individual stock and determine its trend from its position, according to distance
/ _* q; U+ V3 U# A0 _. q3 Iin time from bottom or top. Each stock works out its 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 10, 15, 20, 30, 50 and 60-. e4 C. o7 W. D2 }
year cycles from its own base or bottoms and tops, regardless of the movements of other ' [) ]0 h- a* r8 Q/ T. ]
stocks, even those in the same group. Therefore, judge each stock individually and keep up : J0 ]+ S7 I" U) B
weekly and monthly charts on them.
0 {" q3 g$ E0 }2 V- l6 j. J: h0 S7 x0 y) Z7 u* ~
Never decide that the main trend has changed one way or the other without consulting the / F5 g; s# d3 t+ h
angles from top or bottom and without considering the position of the market and cycle of 9 E+ Q4 W: L" U$ \
each individual stock.* M7 s7 o5 Z/ ]6 B1 L
# L& E3 W3 }9 f4 A; UAlways consider the annual forecast and whether the big time limit has run out or not before & _- R9 v" G2 d( I
judging a reverse move. Do not fail to consider the indications on Time, both from main tops
7 q9 r9 B3 Q3 L* V+ k' P' {2 band bottoms, also Volume of Sales and position on Geometrical Angles.
# U2 Q. F5 K8 L
, s- ~+ H5 R2 L" EA daily chart gives the first short change, which may run for 7 to 10 days; the Weekly Chart
h' K& Y9 _ u: ]( r" Sgives the next important change in trend; and the Monthly the strongest. Remember, weekly+ E0 |) N4 q1 y6 ~+ s2 n5 U% ~
moves run 3 to 7 weeks, monthly moves 2 to 3 months or more, according to the yearly cycle,
0 i- {1 \# T0 Z7 u2 H3 Q/ F$ L! r! Bbefore reversing.1 \7 w; i# m- ^* i- p
y; s0 U& k0 j4 v' ~, V0 k
Yearly bottoms and tops: it is important to know whether a stock is making higher or lower
6 {+ [7 o0 q3 @! n* [1 P. Bbottoms each year. For instance, if a stock has made a higher bottom each year for five years, ' j2 C7 ^) p3 E* y; y; n
then makes a lower bottom than the previous year, it is a sign of reversal and may mark a long
* o" D4 ?# y6 H; V+ A0 _down cycle. The same rule applies when stocks are making lower tops for a number of years
: U l% _( t6 {% j3 lin a bear market.; g8 }: o5 k) v4 O) s( _
k* J! E7 R8 N4 YWhen extreme advances or declines occur, the first time the market reverses over 1/4 to 1/2 of , \. x7 ^" F7 I! @% d) M8 [' ]
the distance covered in the previous movement, you consider that the trend has changed, at ) p0 |( W4 u( R1 [0 x0 X; e% n
least temporarily.
9 g4 q, Y9 H2 {$ c
% g' L1 h: d" u( xIt is important to watch space movements. When Time is running out one way or the other, 9 b) X# o' _3 \
space movements will show a reversal by breaking back over 1/4, 1/3 or 1/2 of the distance of
2 I/ h, L3 O; N+ d( ~: zthe last move from extreme low to extreme high, which indicates that the main trend has 9 k1 L0 D% i/ W" q0 Q- p
changed.3 l/ H: D- `- ]- Y& q
: _8 H; g5 A0 t( Z' u( IStudy all the instructions and rules that I have given you; read them over several times, as + }6 g' N, U% L. ]
each time they will become clearer to you. Study the charts and work out the rules in actual & X# a, f$ @! B4 _0 K* {- k9 T
practice as well as on past performance. In this way, you will make progress and will realize + N4 P3 R7 s. _$ v$ z# @
and appreciate the value of my Method of Forecasting.5 L0 w& G8 t; u+ @. d) n2 A% r
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|【阳光飞狐】
( 网站ICP编号：京ICP备06013475号-7 )
发表于 2009-4-30 10:58:01
收藏
分享
楼主
发表于 2009-4-30 11:22:23
哦，原来是007兄！
发表于 2009-5-3 10:30:27
发表于 2009-5-4 12:51:27
