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4 G' u; \' a9 G! W& m原文:
. c( B V$ C! L8 H, M. yHOW TO MAKE UP ANNUAL FORECASTS
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' x2 A4 Q2 Y1 g& eI have stated before that the future is but a repetition of the past; therefore, to make up a ' v$ q# F9 m) o
forecast of the future, you must refer to the previous cycles.
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6 L5 ~' F g3 r8 h! V) GThe previous 10-year cycle and 20-year cycle have the most effect in the future, but in
, R; N1 Z' }. Dcompleting a forecast, it is best to have 30-years past record to check out, as important
! f, L l! C* m: S" P3 Tchanges occur at the end of 30-year cycles. In making up my 1935 Forecast on the general
1 f N" D! W* {" E* Zmarket, I checked the years 1905, 1915, and 1925. For the 1929 forecast, I compared 1919 –$ F6 E+ h$ S9 W) c# \
10 years back, 1909 – 20 years back, 1899 – 30 years back, and 1869 – 60 years back, the
: G% _) j3 O% Z' i( n0 KGreat Cycle.
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You should also watch 5, 7, 15, and 50-year periods to see if the market is repeating one of
4 e4 l6 U j9 mthem closely.: h9 t* M) X0 [5 d% E9 ~: ]
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MASTER 20-YEAR FORECASTING CHART( o4 Y7 z; U3 G' k$ a
1831 – 1935
3 `6 [, {1 \ ^0 n& [# NIn order to make up an annual forecast, you must refer to my Master 20-year Forecasting
- |+ ]: Y& D* `9 ~! ?. r" wChart and see how the cycles have worked out and repeated in the past.0 f8 H$ s w! v: P
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And stated before, the 20-year cycle is the most important cycle for forecasting future market
o8 J+ V: e7 W) P. P, W# bmovements. It is one-third of the 60 year cycle and when three 20-year cycles run out,
4 \3 f* F* r, r, q+ g% q: |important bull and bear campaigns terminate.' C( i3 l$ y' o1 g# {
j) f7 [5 h( q" H- o0 K, ]4 r2 |( xIn order for you to see and study how the cycles repeat, I have made of a chart of 20-year , M# Z: v3 W4 ?( ]% w: w, Z
cycles, beginning with the year 1831. To show all of the cycles from 1831 to date, we have 7 B/ k9 ]. u+ A C( o
carried through on this chart the monthly high and low on railroad and canal stocks from 18317 @6 m- o8 M* b t- A2 j% M
to 1855. Beginning with 1856 we have used the W. D. Gann Averages on railroad stocks * T% o* T& l; R/ r1 i
until the beginning of the Dow-Jones Averages in 1896. After that we have used the Dow-
: n" O# c6 M( H4 S4 rJones Industrial Stock Averages.
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" m& C0 m1 E. _; P0 P; PAfter the end of the 20-year cycle in 1860,( _ M1 b) B# k a% V1 J1 ?( z
the next cycle begins at 1861 and runs to 1880,4 _8 f7 n! G; L! z& t- ?
the next cycle begins at 1881 and runs to 1900,
! w9 } v* ]# athe next cycle begins at 1901 and runs to 1920,
3 G: C- `! f4 c) `6 bthe next cycle begins at 1921 and runs to 1940.' U4 x: W5 Y! v6 i0 m) ~
: g9 ^4 c+ J7 V) O( z+ o4 iBy placing the monthly high and low prices for each of these 20-year periods above each
) o. r) t8 x Q9 k5 uother, it is easy to see how the cycles repeat. The year of the cycles are marked from "1" to + Y2 a s/ z3 v! g
"20". Study the chart and note what happened in the 8th and 9th year of each cycle – that
% |6 y( |. ?4 y# U( Qextreme high prices have always been reached. For example: y6 X: j9 _% N; Z# w. o1 O
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1929 FORECAST0 E& r9 q: ]- b0 b
According to my discovery of the 60-year cycle, I had figured that 1929 would repeat like
" R& t( A# I+ j# u! e1869, 1909, and 1919. Looking back 20 years, we find that top was reached in August, 1909,
; N; y" o' L; z" F5 o- Dand 60 years before, top was reached in July, 1869. If you will read my Annual Forecast for
6 N. z" d( y! D, I7 f, S2 k, t2 P1929, you will see that I had figured the top must come not later than the end of August and
, U2 J3 t+ W( {stated that a "Black Friday" would come in September. Following strictly the 1869 top, the 1 i) F6 U$ b* Y8 i! f* u9 Z
top would have come in July, 1929, and some stocks did make top at that time. Following the " b# J- W( w! T) Y6 x
1909 top, we could expect top in August, and the actual high of the averages and many
) Q% B' z9 _' N* Iindividual stocks was reached on September 3, 1929. Going back to 1919, we find that the
: x$ H9 V& L4 F5 G2 H" k" q1 lAverages made first top in July and a big decline followed, but extreme high was made in the 6 e% b& P" B* R/ Z8 R l
early part of November.
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From all of these tops – 1869, 1909, and 1919 – sharp declines followed in the fall of the year, $ N4 `/ F* A# f D6 @
just as they did in 1929. Therefore, you see how easy it was to follow this great advance and % L \" H9 F: s% v& J5 I$ H3 Y
determine when it would culminate. There is no other way, outside of using the 20 and 60-
' a& x* Q; O+ C' s% \6 eyear cycle that we could have forecast this great bull campaign and its culmination so closely 7 V2 `$ f" L9 k1 U% I7 c. }
in 1929.
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1869-73 VS. 1929-33
, R* {/ r/ t3 S) b, QAfter the 1869 top, stocks continued to decline and reached low in November, 1873. See how
0 |$ Q; F/ m- z2 r- kmany other bottoms were reached around this time in other cycles. After the big decline from 0 G! m8 W1 s7 u- ] g
1929, notice that in October, 1933, the last low was reached on the Dow-Jones averages; then
4 m2 p+ C/ P3 h3 w/ u& _8 Ufollowed an advance to new high levels, crossing the top of July, 1933.
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1935 FORECAST
: p8 |4 W% f6 h9 n- h1 x! A$ AFiguring out the Forecast for 1935, we see on this 20-year Chart that we are running against
) b/ {: [ Z; A$ w1855, 1875, 1895, 1915. Therefore, we look to see what happened in those years. We find) M7 F3 K# h8 R+ K
that in 1895, the high was reached in September, in 1915, the high of the year was reached in
$ B7 Y6 u$ b, ~7 S" R) LDecember.# R3 B$ ?6 @5 c$ D& `
$ c# `/ O5 }7 y, k( NThen, look back at 1865, 1885, 1905, and 1925, the years in the 5th zone or the 10-year
8 c+ P0 j" i6 t' G5 y5 B! V; x7 Bcycles. We find that in 1865 the high was reached in October; in 1905 the high was in : @) S0 S5 J0 i7 [+ {! C, A9 U
October: in 1925 the high was in November.
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6 b8 E$ ~9 T& t; \1 Q) bThen, we would have a good guide in making out the Forecast for 1935, and we would know
! H2 I2 G K4 \what months to watch for top and a change in trend. My Annual Forecast for 1935, which ! }# B: y) D+ b4 K" q8 O
was made up in October, 1934, indicated top for October 28 and a secondary top for 8 N; g d% Y7 `% U) D, _# O
November 15-16, 1935.# x5 V+ N% d$ A$ A$ Z9 J
3 J* r0 N1 F( N1 [3 }/ sThere are other ways of using this Chart to advantage. One method of determining the trend ( R9 f! H% Z6 K' Z n6 x! W/ X
is to compare the years of previous cycles in the same zone. For example: after the Dow-9 a, L6 L' \2 J. s3 y( H
Jones 30 Industrial Averages crossed 108 in May, 1935, they were above the average high
* X# q5 c" J7 ^1 V# D$ Y. G- p' b% q: Iprice of all the previous years in the 15th-year zone. Therefore, the market indicated higher . g6 k6 S, a6 l7 ?0 ?
prices and showed that there would be a bull campaign.
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1936 FORECAST
) X4 t0 u; M9 \, \% gIf we wish to make up a forecast for the year 1936, we compare the years in the 16th year
) M6 m& u+ K) l$ K% ezone, viz. 1856, 1876, 1896, and 1916. As 60 years back is a very important cycle, we look at
3 C& ^5 E% U1 B4 X- k1876 first, then 1896, and 1916.
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+ J K0 M0 y5 T" F' ^$ a- P/ w8 |# k' E1876 - We find that the averages run up and reach high in March; then decline to the end of 8 ~* p! K. T' J5 m4 P
the year. z, _3 a8 E7 y" d! Q
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1896 - Next, we look at 1896, which is 40 years back, or two 20-year cycles, a very
, L& _# C8 E6 R4 W3 T% p: i) s) timportant presidential election year, just as 1936 will be. We find that there was a / p! k& V5 }. K- {
moderate rally into February, a decline to March, then a small rally to May, from
: [ k5 [6 U/ wwhich a panicky decline followed, culminating on August 8, 1896, with the averages
5 Y q) O }! {7 G5 t# Lat the lowest levels in years. From that point, a bull campaign started, with prices % F6 B x" ^: ?+ P# o3 V e$ W+ D
working higher to December., F. b- {2 U& o" T# t, Z( e7 A' r
/ H6 q k$ `9 T6 m e5 O. m8 E1916 - The next important cycle is 20 years later, or 1916. We find that prices declined in
+ C0 |( }! ~9 R8 BJanuary, rallied moderately in February, then declined sharply to April, rallied to & b1 D+ l4 F) K" _2 p
June, then declined and made bottom in July, from which a big bull campaign + B, U" e$ \( s! E. H* X2 g
started, making top in November, 1916, in a war market. A panicky decline
( d0 W8 I) x# A- a' l$ w8 _followed from the latter part of November into December.
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" F& @- ]8 _5 bThis completes our comparison of the 60, 40, and 20-year cycles back from 1936. Next, we
- p" s4 g- g) e% Z- N" Elook at the cycles on the other side of the Chart, in the 6th year of the 20-year cycle, or the 6th
: d/ l* `8 z% @2 Ezone, of the 10-year cycles. These years are 1866, 1886, 1906, and 1926.
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1866 - We find that in 1866 there was a sharp decline, reaching bottom in February; then
6 S* h( S( u& h9 ~an advance, with top of the year in October.
, _8 y" e* J) T& J* f' a( H& g1886 - We find a sharp decline and bottom in January, a moderate rally into March, then a ' i8 V: @8 Y0 }- ~" `2 z
sharp decline to new lows in May; a sharp advance, reaching high in November, and
+ K O i6 i& y* s& `' _a sharp decline in December.
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9 @! h2 `+ y9 v( m) f4 e1 p+ \ j u1906 - The next important cycle to consider is 1906. In that year, the great McKinley * Y+ Z( d& b( V3 V
boom, which began in 1896, culminated. The railroad averages reached the highest
5 w6 `$ Y- [. L8 k. oprice in history up to that time. From the high of January, a sharp decline followed
* B7 p6 p! m0 ~, T4 Fto May. Much of this selling was caused by the San Francisco earthquake. Then, 4 Q# Y( U0 ^ g) G
there was a rally into June, followed by a sharp decline to low in July, with the . m* n# Y! a8 O( m( @ o4 ]
bottom just slightly higher than the low of May. From this low there was an . Y- C* e9 V1 Q/ p
advance to September, when another top was made, but lower than the top in
% T+ G. [; Z. \$ Y" B; n. e/ u! YJanuary; then followed a decline into December and a panic followed in 1907.
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1926 - The next important 10-year cycle to consider is 1926, when the great Coolidge bull 6 T) R$ }. F4 D# z) c0 ?- F
campaign was underway. From the low in December, 1925, stocks rallied to
9 y' Q p8 c! l( Q' h# H7 G& P7 |February, 1926; then had a sharp decline into March, some stocks breaking as much
5 q- K( D; t. K+ Q$ ~9 [# mas 100 points. From this bottom there was a sharp advance to new high levels, " u: {4 e" L ~. R: ?* m
reaching top in August; then another sharp decline to bottom in October, from 7 s/ k- ^# w$ |
which a rally followed to December, but stocks did not get back to the high reached ) E) R: a9 E% ]5 i' J
in August that year.6 Z) O# {: S H1 Y e
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Now, when I get ready to make up my Forecast for 1936, I will consider all of the cycles. I
j' E4 ^* v7 q5 G: r+ Wwill go back and also check the 7-year cycles, the 14-year and 15-year cycles, which is half of
: E! `, y' r) R8 tthe 30-year cycle. But, at this writing, with my knowledge and experience of the future 5 K4 X7 l. Q) F7 [6 h( r
cycles, I expect the 1896 cycle to repeat in 1936.% U% r K) K( h! Q6 R0 w6 X: q
: M: u5 c# w) M' v9 h! f) ?- Q6 @9 S1936 is likely to be a very uncertain election year just as it was in 1896, when the Bryan silver
, Q" K& p9 E/ {) yscare caused a panicky decline into August. There is a possibility of a three-cornered fight,
0 |" Y+ K: }3 G/ d3 fwith two Democratic presidential candidates and one Republican. There certainly is going to
; w$ {3 ]+ T& [$ I- a7 X, s3 K/ h: Ibe a time during 1936 when the investors are going to get scared and speculators are going to
# g# ^# k; Z- H( V# Bget scared and sell stocks, causing sharp declines.
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8 d) x' A$ I/ F i8 a) p* h/ gMy opinion, at this writing, is that the first decline will start in the month of January and wind
7 Q9 u i2 R2 M/ _up with a sharp decline. February – the market may drift along in a narrow, trading range . P6 }( ~+ D. ]5 S5 G3 E L
with some rallies, but there will be another decline in the month of March, just as there was in
3 G% a8 _0 L0 }9 B: d1926. I am confident that there will be another break in the months of May and June,
( v4 L+ M1 c( F! lespecially in the latter half of May, as this will be running out four years from the 1932 low 9 D, E& d0 M" V: L; x9 J+ @9 @- a
and 6 years from April, 1930 high, all of which are indications of important changes in trend.2 w$ {/ y B1 R4 }; x( s
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We know that presidential nominations will take place in July, therefore this is a month to * H. @+ F) Y# ]9 C0 a7 @
watch for uncertainties and declines, unless sharp declines have come before that time. The % G: u$ j `$ P4 \% v; }9 f Z# I6 p
ending of the cycle from 1896 in August is quite important and regardless of how high or how
* K% b4 o5 e2 p. Q* Y$ K: q! @, e) p: Qlow stocks are, there are likely to be some sharp declines before the end of August. Again, in 2 L1 G( w6 i, ]: q. R |% O, K
the last half of September, uncertain conditions and possibility of sharp declines are indicated. 6 B* U3 ~* q/ }
This may mark the last low and an election rally may start if there are indications of a change
/ q3 i+ `7 Q8 |. _( o' ~9 l6 z! N/ pin Administration by the election of a Republican president, which, I believe, at this writing,
) i! x! O& V9 w, R, }/ q1 rwill happen.3 b; D% h, p9 J; C
0 |* e! u, P8 M" YSeptember, October, and November are all important because these months are 7 years from
: W$ q2 K8 \$ Rthe top in September, 1929 and 7 years from the panicky decline in October and November, + y# Y+ P1 S" l5 O
1929. I would expect a rally to take place after the election in November, which would last
; O9 g" G7 [/ manyway until the early part of December. If conditions show signs of improvement and if the 7 C3 a0 {) Y$ X* s: }; I% a- `9 k, \
people are satisfied with the man elected, then the advance will probably continue into
7 A3 R9 N0 S) K) }December, with high prices around the end of the year.8 Z' p4 O- R4 H! d
! V7 v( s: E+ f# d+ f. p9 Y; ?. fThis is merely a general outline that I am giving without completing all of my calculations $ i: g5 {8 \- s
and making up the Annual Forecast in detail.
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