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江恩如是说(4)——年度预测

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发表于 2009-5-2 22:48:11 | 只看该作者 回帖奖励 |倒序浏览 |阅读模式
说明:
* S2 b2 ~* g4 M  M# [6 w1.首发。转载请注明出处——
阳光飞狐/江恩理论;当然还有译者。谢谢!
; V' O8 `/ I1 I5 _, B9 A2.译文乃
初稿,未校稿,仅供参考!0 b1 \; g! n8 o* `" U) U# q
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------! d# m" p* m# s& v% {5 Z3 a' M7 a
原文:
1 P; F2 e5 o4 K1 z2 RHOW TO MAKE UP ANNUAL FORECASTS
# o8 q8 w& W8 v* s9 a& _& Y# T4 E, ?% o. d
I  have  stated  before  that  the  future  is  but  a  repetition  of  the  past;  therefore,  to make  up  a 2 b' s, \1 x3 D5 L- {
forecast of the future, you must refer to the previous cycles.
  u( \0 j: m6 _: z7 T
& D" V7 E/ M( M, PThe  previous  10-year  cycle  and  20-year  cycle  have  the  most  effect  in  the  future,  but  in
' y$ z% e9 l1 Y, ^completing  a  forecast,  it  is  best  to  have  30-years  past  record  to  check  out,  as  important # Q) X* D9 ~! B( {
changes occur at  the end of 30-year cycles.    In making up my 1935 Forecast on the general
2 T" x# A+ @% D; Umarket, I checked the years 1905, 1915, and 1925.  For the 1929 forecast, I compared 1919 –# i* s+ P( l6 H/ G7 Y# U
10 years back, 1909 –  20 years back, 1899 –  30 years back, and 1869 –  60 years back,  the 5 _. b& S6 g( K  E4 ]
Great Cycle.
" F$ E5 r) ~3 W5 Q5 p/ q, w1 F1 Y% O1 t- J3 I/ P7 Y
You should also watch 5, 7, 15, and 50-year periods to see  if  the market  is repeating one of 8 o, Q% E1 x6 g/ W5 K/ R
them closely.' L. T  ?8 m. U$ @0 e( J0 b9 i# q

  B6 e7 G% ~/ q5 JMASTER 20-YEAR FORECASTING CHART# L# h* n- X- J" K0 P
1831 –  1935
7 I* @) k+ m/ O, sIn  order  to make  up  an  annual  forecast,  you must  refer  to my Master  20-year  Forecasting 0 z6 A* R( v: V; m  N
Chart and see how the cycles have worked out and repeated in the past.* x) Y& l2 i4 ]3 N9 Q6 G3 \: \
9 e1 J0 O9 @6 C) P
And stated before, the 20-year cycle is the most important cycle for forecasting future market 9 ~0 j  w( ]: a2 j; f
movements.    It  is  one-third  of  the  60  year  cycle  and  when  three  20-year  cycles  run  out, 8 X+ |- k* o5 d  p( p  m
important bull and bear campaigns terminate.
1 \( }# [+ z7 L1 Q
% f, M- N5 H5 @In order  for you  to  see  and  study how  the cycles  repeat,  I have made of  a chart of 20-year : D8 `+ i- t: y. c$ G
cycles, beginning with the year 1831.   To show all of the cycles from 1831 to date, we have # ~. |9 z, O. j  B* \+ O
carried through on this chart the monthly high and low on railroad and canal stocks from 1831  [- D$ J5 ]; J
to 1855.   Beginning with 1856 we have used  the W. D. Gann Averages on  railroad  stocks
' x" [2 y4 u7 kuntil  the beginning of  the Dow-Jones Averages  in 1896.   After  that we have used  the Dow-
- i0 q  F5 \9 KJones Industrial Stock Averages.
8 N9 G# m4 O  C9 s& M
2 z' f+ y' S9 o0 B, G9 yAfter the end of the 20-year cycle in 1860,
& ~7 f) D* ^- ^( Y0 y3 ythe next cycle begins at 1861 and runs to 1880,& Q2 ~9 V& V' a# o' Z& U
the next cycle begins at 1881 and runs to 1900,
% P+ n4 g2 a. Othe next cycle begins at 1901 and runs to 1920,* O& D, A6 w- x% H# t1 f
the next cycle begins at 1921 and runs to 1940.
5 f) q, G' `! i, b" M
) B3 u2 @9 w9 UBy  placing  the monthly  high  and  low  prices  for  each  of  these  20-year  periods  above  each
* X4 K* F' E5 E! t5 u, t3 j8 j- zother, it is easy to see how the cycles repeat.  The year of the cycles are marked from "1" to
, u2 I, u' m8 f, R# u4 l: y"20".   Study  the chart and note what happened  in  the 8th and 9th year of each cycle –   that
" Q" u" _4 l# |& E" Eextreme high prices have always been reached.  For example:' Y. W; T, F! k. |7 j  R. E

  ?4 O% u: Q/ D* S7 W+ z1929 FORECAST
2 @+ m6 R1 N& Y$ H) \6 s% MAccording  to my discovery of  the 60-year  cycle,  I had  figured  that 1929 would  repeat  like
9 H! J% U6 P! |" |/ q- N0 H4 U7 }- ]+ L1869, 1909, and 1919.  Looking back 20 years, we find that top was reached in August, 1909,
; r0 i5 p9 D7 N1 |, X% q' wand 60 years before, top was reached in July, 1869.  If you will read my Annual Forecast for ; E% E, X" |% @' l% h
1929, you will see that I had figured the top must come not later than the end of August and
. X5 R: L$ w# E9 y3 H" T) rstated that a "Black Friday" would come  in September.   Following strictly  the 1869  top, the
7 k0 X0 D, G: W. l: dtop would have come in July, 1929, and some stocks did make top at that time.  Following the
$ e! V3 O9 I2 n* p+ F+ E- b1909  top,  we  could  expect  top  in  August,  and  the  actual  high  of  the  averages  and many 4 C+ x% H' W: L' f7 \+ [, X
individual stocks was reached on September 3, 1929.   Going back  to 1919, we find  that  the
; h8 g9 ~6 v) r- MAverages made first top in July and a big decline followed, but extreme high was made in the
2 f& D  g) v( r& Bearly part of November.
8 M. T& y! n2 g5 H/ s  N8 c
" {2 M$ D$ x: \4 Y8 v/ H2 _/ j6 ~From all of these tops –  1869, 1909, and 1919 –  sharp declines followed in the fall of the year,
2 W- X- B" C9 {! j8 E3 {just as they did in 1929.  Therefore, you see how easy it was to follow this great advance and
* z1 d$ _4 I4 ?; K' P4 K+ H" z1 U1 hdetermine when it would culminate.   There is no other way, outside of using  the 20 and 60-
% U' k4 X. K2 x6 ]0 v7 M4 m# ~year cycle that we could have forecast this great bull campaign and its culmination so closely + V+ X# c0 R* R' C/ k6 ]
in 1929.
/ b0 M# o/ l, B) I$ j1 G0 W
1 ?% q" n- P- I9 E; H1869-73 VS. 1929-338 ]9 |) q9 F+ K# `) S' K
After the 1869 top, stocks continued to decline and reached low in November, 1873.  See how
; n7 ^% O% z/ T4 f2 dmany other bottoms were reached around this time in other cycles.  After the big decline from
9 H' X, ^: u0 ?$ y. B) t1929, notice that in October, 1933, the last low was reached on the Dow-Jones averages; then % {' Q7 Z: t6 ^7 N# k% }5 r
followed an advance to new high levels, crossing the top of July, 1933.
" ]) G( L5 W# G0 K$ _& t  A4 v% ^
* b+ ]* @0 k. o8 y' Z. c: \* n1935 FORECAST
4 t! G% H5 f( BFiguring out the Forecast for 1935, we see on this 20-year Chart that we are running against
/ s9 L6 L5 e2 \+ X, C1855, 1875, 1895, 1915.   Therefore, we  look  to see what happened  in those years.   We find. m% [3 }' K% l. ?" J* V
that in 1895, the high was reached in September, in 1915, the high of the year was reached in - }* k; s' G+ B9 S" k6 B
December.
+ b5 R, i5 }" |0 i4 ?" P) B: M' ~
Then,  look  back  at  1865,  1885,  1905,  and  1925,  the  years  in  the  5th  zone  or  the  10-year
/ T, {# L5 i$ [. O5 O. s9 t- Qcycles. We  find  that  in  1865  the  high  was  reached  in  October;  in  1905  the  high  was  in 8 N! ^. u9 a, Z! u6 ]5 N$ R/ a, Z
October: in 1925 the high was in November.
/ ]# ~, e# ~: g1 R! @8 r' x8 g1 r  F& a. z: I
Then, we would have a good guide in making out the Forecast for 1935, and we would know
! c' n' ^, Y7 F  X: l$ x( D# fwhat months  to watch  for  top and a change  in  trend.   My Annual Forecast  for 1935, which 1 A8 K0 [+ C; b5 D, n) r; I! K4 g
was  made  up  in  October,  1934,  indicated  top  for  October  28  and  a  secondary  top  for
; [' y7 K# v# `6 P; s* g! \November 15-16, 1935.0 q1 V7 g- Y% N) D' B. v3 ]) X
2 @0 r! J" t+ }  l/ l' F- O
There are other ways of using this Chart to advantage.  One method of determining the trend 2 p& r7 H* M/ v  j
is  to compare  the years of previous  cycles  in  the  same  zone.   For  example: after  the Dow-
" W; d# z: @/ J& A# e+ O% DJones 30  Industrial Averages  crossed 108  in May, 1935,  they were  above  the  average high   w# o9 c$ ^! j/ V5 C4 L! S
price of all  the previous years in the 15th-year zone.   Therefore, the market indicated higher
& g. R. @4 e: x/ w2 Iprices and showed that there would be a bull campaign.
- @; p3 A# S1 \3 i$ E: e
  V) @. C% B- k/ T1936 FORECAST) q, u1 d$ \; a0 E2 b( v
If we wish  to make up a  forecast  for  the year 1936, we compare  the years  in  the 16th year
6 @& U; f3 f, Ezone, viz. 1856, 1876, 1896, and 1916.  As 60 years back is a very important cycle, we look at
  y" ]  J  X: w2 I1876 first, then 1896, and 1916.( x% s' v$ w: C( m, @6 C

- f* i5 F% `/ @; R  T$ |% \: p1876 - We find that the averages run up and reach high in March; then decline to the end of
% f) d4 l" Y' \2 H# D8 q* ^the year.
9 c* V: s8 X4 O6 `7 @6 j0 I5 Z  K/ c8 |1 N8 L: i! i4 F
1896 - Next,  we  look  at  1896,  which  is  40  years  back,  or  two  20-year  cycles,  a  very
7 a: H! o3 f6 f, Oimportant presidential election year, just as 1936 will be.   We find that there was a 5 l4 ~3 [1 J5 R& ?! f
moderate  rally  into February, a decline  to March,  then a  small  rally  to May,  from
0 _$ A2 Q2 O7 _+ ]& W% N1 Mwhich a panicky decline followed, culminating on August 8, 1896, with the averages 8 r8 l% s! o4 `. e: b. _! W
at  the  lowest  levels  in years.   From  that point, a bull campaign started, with prices 2 i6 w8 z- Z1 D4 N/ a* @
working higher to December.4 ]1 D7 |% h! p; t% f2 {& ~
/ b* l7 j; g8 G% O" K; j1 S
1916 - The next important cycle is 20 years later, or 1916.  We find that prices declined in " m5 |$ ~) _: U* Q
January,  rallied moderately  in  February,  then  declined  sharply  to April,  rallied  to " X" |/ }( ~2 Q3 H
June,  then  declined  and  made  bottom  in  July,  from  which  a  big  bull  campaign ( O2 s+ T' w3 Q6 Q7 E! Z
started,  making  top  in  November,  1916,  in  a  war  market.    A  panicky  decline
5 u6 s3 R, w& ^' Nfollowed from the latter part of November into December.6 v! Y% ^; A3 u- M
* D/ \% ^/ j4 a0 O
This completes our comparison of  the 60, 40, and 20-year cycles back from 1936. Next, we ) n$ G9 L7 T# J: ?$ W& Y* ^
look at the cycles on the other side of the Chart, in the 6th year of the 20-year cycle, or the 6th
: z' d; L* J! L3 O! ^/ b5 y  Szone, of the 10-year cycles.  These years are 1866, 1886, 1906, and 1926.
% t9 x, O4 N6 x; A- w1 K& N
& G* y8 Z3 ^" T- x  j3 y: P1866 - We find  that  in 1866  there was a sharp decline,  reaching bottom  in February;  then : t& \  G4 e  `2 u5 X& L! A5 R: r
an advance, with top of the year in October.5 i+ s3 I$ E: b2 Q
1886 - We find a sharp decline and bottom in January, a moderate rally into March, then a
/ W; T. }+ L5 C; d7 Isharp decline to new lows in May; a sharp advance, reaching high in November, and 4 s1 M( P' N. B9 l, h) e1 |  k0 u+ V
a sharp decline in December.5 w: |4 T0 {& c, x

5 e! l& Y) s$ y: ?) [1906 - The  next  important  cycle  to  consider  is  1906.    In  that  year,  the  great McKinley
1 o$ D0 ~3 [1 `2 M) v- Fboom, which began in 1896, culminated.  The railroad averages reached the highest ! H4 ~3 T: b& D! m6 A: d6 Y( A
price in history up to that time.  From the high of January, a sharp decline followed # h* P/ C, `" L4 H; D- t6 ?9 i
to May.   Much of  this selling was caused by  the San Francisco earthquake.   Then, ; c) L5 C% l- U: B4 v: ~( G+ \. Y
there was  a  rally  into  June,  followed  by  a  sharp  decline  to  low  in  July, with  the " h% _$ ]7 b) _! R8 {7 P  ]
bottom  just  slightly  higher  than  the  low  of May.    From  this  low  there  was  an
& q+ A3 S' Q8 c9 a& X: j9 S$ ~4 @advance  to  September,  when  another  top  was  made,  but  lower  than  the  top  in - A1 l. K9 H( s
January; then followed a decline into December and a panic followed in 1907.
& ^& C3 d7 K% {/ K
( L* m# x' R3 F1 S* n: v2 h0 A1926 - The next important 10-year cycle to consider is 1926, when the great Coolidge bull 7 P4 f5 q8 k5 u4 P% ]) E3 U
campaign  was  underway.    From  the  low  in  December,  1925,  stocks  rallied  to   T0 S( Q# Z4 V8 s3 R
February, 1926; then had a sharp decline into March, some stocks breaking as much . v' X; R% c# E4 V( O3 a( K$ ^& G; y
as  100  points.    From  this  bottom  there was  a  sharp  advance  to  new  high  levels,
5 ]/ l2 j2 w5 Y$ yreaching  top  in  August;  then  another  sharp  decline  to  bottom  in  October,  from
9 H# C% Q. n' y, X: |3 d; J! zwhich a rally followed to December, but stocks did not get back to the high reached * o; f* d2 d5 n5 t$ D* R
in August that year.& V5 x1 s. w( m& O8 x
& m4 G6 s" j" `3 l: p" d. N
Now, when I get ready to make up my Forecast for 1936, I will consider all of the cycles.  I 4 g' i) d. l0 w/ n2 U
will go back and also check the 7-year cycles, the 14-year and 15-year cycles, which is half of $ k0 o9 o4 n5 E% ]- R' U
the  30-year  cycle.    But,  at  this  writing,  with my  knowledge  and  experience  of  the  future
/ K* R0 w1 W' w/ C/ Acycles, I expect the 1896 cycle to repeat in 1936.
7 [! \, g" X. X# B/ X9 [. k; F9 u( ^2 \$ b
1936 is likely to be a very uncertain election year just as it was in 1896, when the Bryan silver
" z3 b/ D& ?7 k, g( v+ [scare caused a panicky decline  into August.   There  is a possibility of a  three-cornered fight,
. n6 ~+ P' q0 }- G, I- U) I2 mwith two Democratic presidential candidates and one Republican.  There certainly is going to
! X# N7 v  ~$ A4 J  n' X" Abe a time during 1936 when the investors are going to get scared and speculators are going to
) N2 n5 R! j  I9 i; ^get scared and sell stocks, causing sharp declines.
2 ]+ T7 _, J: o  j$ r/ i& c! M; z3 c8 f' o* t5 o- I/ f
My opinion, at this writing, is that the first decline will start in the month of January and wind
* q2 P7 L5 G7 D# Z" D8 Jup with a  sharp decline.   February –   the market may drift along  in a narrow,  trading  range 0 B" g0 O) S: M9 Z. ]; Q& [/ [
with some rallies, but there will be another decline in the month of March, just as there was in 1 J' @7 p4 ~7 I& N& ^
1926.    I  am  confident  that  there  will  be  another  break  in  the  months  of May  and  June, 9 y- e, p7 g; [; H5 @
especially in the latter half of May, as this will be running out four years from the 1932 low : G! P7 P9 J. i* f, D5 j0 |0 F
and 6 years from April, 1930 high, all of which are indications of important changes in trend.
4 N% y5 p5 @6 ?' I4 [
. p0 I0 _  @) vWe know  that presidential nominations will  take place  in  July,  therefore  this  is  a month  to / N& ]! q5 t; }6 q0 V
watch for uncertainties and declines, unless sharp declines have come before that  time.   The
0 [* ]7 W/ r/ `! iending of the cycle from 1896 in August is quite important and regardless of how high or how ) k* G; j& p/ g; d6 O4 B
low stocks are, there are likely to be some sharp declines before the end of August.  Again, in
0 H4 @) ?0 m5 F. L7 v7 z6 |- Z2 Gthe last half of September, uncertain conditions and possibility of sharp declines are indicated.  ' {8 [) w. {, q
This may mark the last low and an election rally may start if there are indications of a change
' e- c) X4 s& Z4 Q- Rin Administration by the election of a Republican president, which, I believe, at this writing,
4 I& K' a7 I" m1 _9 v# y2 O; Vwill happen.0 N% q. I5 m) y- J! M( E

* J6 p: ^/ \% u+ h( lSeptember, October, and November are all important because these months are 7 years from # r- M7 Z, N# N" F3 X& m( ]+ k
the top in September, 1929 and 7 years from the panicky decline in October and November,
! U* G8 T; R. |8 r1929.   I would expect a rally to  take place after  the election in November, which would last
  j( @7 Z* W0 J: H' c7 `anyway until the early part of December.  If conditions show signs of improvement and if the
( t* v. m5 n7 L3 ^people  are  satisfied  with  the  man  elected,  then  the  advance  will  probably  continue  into # h! w& _* H* N& w% c
December, with high prices around the end of the year." [- N- }2 L, [& t0 s4 c. v/ K$ v
5 d: O) Y9 v6 T- E9 H( H$ m; O% X
This  is merely a general outline  that  I am giving without completing all of my calculations 8 [# n" O7 S( e# c" \% U& e
and making up the Annual Forecast in detail.
! u) E4 H6 ^, v- B0 n----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------8 h2 q$ q1 r$ B: M$ N8 P
译文:

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2#
 楼主| 发表于 2009-5-2 22:52:05 | 只看该作者
桃兄真是快枪手!7 [! c* _& v' r- ~& i5 O! T& P
---------------------------------
; c5 I: O5 {2 D8 T* B% q- {( D$ E! d5 x
5 V' V- h* c, o5 r& E) V) S[ 本帖最后由 甘恩 于 2009-5-2 22:53 编辑 ]

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3#
发表于 2009-5-2 22:55:13 | 只看该作者
你这是第几章第几节?请标上!
4#
 楼主| 发表于 2009-5-2 22:58:21 | 只看该作者
原帖由 天蓝蓝 于 2009-5-2 22:55 发表
3 W( N9 X' `$ ?1 d2 {- F. X* L你这是第几章第几节?请标上!
. O. Q* F3 [! [1 H8 q5 k
勤勤手吧——用一下PDF的搜索功能!!
5#
发表于 2009-5-2 22:59:15 | 只看该作者
     感谢

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发表于 2009-5-2 23:08:16 | 只看该作者
谢谢

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7#
发表于 2009-5-3 00:10:26 | 只看该作者
谢谢,

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8#
发表于 2009-5-3 08:43:14 | 只看该作者
谢谢!!支持甘恩兄的帖子!!

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发表于 2009-5-3 08:57:05 | 只看该作者
谢谢甘恩兄
: b1 G! b* g7 j, e0 g

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发表于 2009-5-3 09:53:30 | 只看该作者
支持楼主发贴。。

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发表于 2009-5-3 10:21:13 | 只看该作者
原帖由 甘恩 于 2009-5-2 14:48 发表 ' G6 Q6 M3 i3 C
说明:
/ N+ ?9 h7 ?9 ~7 l8 C0 @6 |1 F1.首发。转载请注明出处——阳光飞狐/江恩理论;当然还有译者。谢谢!
! }( e* R/ N# S$ d3 C/ }8 M5 s2.译文乃初稿,未校稿,仅供参考!$ w  P( @* P1 s/ L1 T
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...
多读几遍江恩描述的! 或许就是大家天天都在做的事!
) r: ]: L! ^, h3 s6 r1 D# z不要再搞的过于神秘!
! B) d* L) g5 q$ ]- ]$ O. V, M& h: e4 z
[ 本帖最后由 yay 于 2009-5-3 02:25 编辑 ]

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发表于 2009-5-3 10:34:18 | 只看该作者
谢谢. ! T. C; r; {9 s6 J0 r9 ?3 Q) c
谢谢.
& ?: V# g! R( |' I0 h谢谢.
13#
发表于 2009-5-3 11:18:50 | 只看该作者
支持楼主发贴。。

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14#
发表于 2009-5-3 12:57:47 | 只看该作者
中央红军1934年10月16日离开瑞金开始了长征之路; H  T  l- d3 F4 `4 ~$ S: J! k
历史上的
( P" u1 S1 r3 z' D, {0 [
. r. b) G  S! U& J9 i如果再结合星相,自然如虎添翼,不用这样麻烦~~~
15#
发表于 2009-5-3 14:29:54 | 只看该作者
谢谢
16#
发表于 2009-5-3 20:46:45 | 只看该作者
要学的东西太多,谢谢提供
17#
发表于 2009-5-3 21:43:39 | 只看该作者
谢谢提供
18#
发表于 2009-5-4 02:47:53 | 只看该作者
奇文共赏
19#
发表于 2009-5-4 07:21:58 | 只看该作者
谢谢甘恩兄
1 N  N4 ], y; G
20#
发表于 2009-5-4 08:17:47 | 只看该作者
支持楼主发帖,新手好好学习。
21#
发表于 2009-5-4 09:09:13 | 只看该作者
22#
发表于 2009-5-4 10:01:19 | 只看该作者
好好看看
23#
发表于 2009-5-4 10:05:39 | 只看该作者
谢谢甘恩兄
24#
发表于 2009-5-4 11:46:40 | 只看该作者
谢谢分享
25#
发表于 2009-5-4 11:55:35 | 只看该作者
以前没有读到过, 谢谢。) \9 T% V! I: s
老江真牛,这才是预测。
! Z# ~6 G3 s3 b0 s学习。
26#
发表于 2009-5-4 12:56:46 | 只看该作者

难道不应该配上这附图???

江恩百年预测图: B& z& Q8 J6 `# U) F2 b' v8 n

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27#
发表于 2009-5-4 13:11:42 | 只看该作者
带彩的。。。

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28#
发表于 2009-5-4 15:15:26 | 只看该作者
谢谢分享
29#
发表于 2009-5-16 07:52:26 | 只看该作者
谢谢分享
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