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1.首发。转载请注明出处——阳光飞狐/江恩理论；当然还有译者。谢谢！
1 c7 w9 q: `; ]8 z8 _2.译文乃初稿，未校稿，仅供参考！
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* g' P, i/ H8 f& w+ H/ k原文：
0 r( R. u* n2 r Y" NIMPORTANT POINTS TO REMEMBER IN FORECASTING
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& e$ V* |6 H5 \TIME is the most important factor of all, and not until sufficient time has expired does any ) Q6 @6 L) G8 f3 ]. p6 ]
big move up or down, start. The Time factor will overbalance both Space and Volume. 4 J, L6 H; E- z/ s" R8 S: \1 Q% M
When Time is up, space movement will start and big volume will begin, either up or down.
! m, [3 @; a4 q3 X4 a! B8 x* hAt the end of any big movement – with monthly, weekly, or daily – Time, must be allowed * _2 t7 g6 o! W9 u g- ~/ b
for accumulation or distribution.
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Consider each individual stock and determine its trend from its position, according to distance 5 w: @: P% t$ c X" |( |% b
in time from bottom or top. Each stock works out its 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 10, 15, 20, 30, 50 and 60-, d" V. j7 a4 E: _$ I. @) q
year cycles from its own base or bottoms and tops, regardless of the movements of other
$ N0 n) C$ h: M* t" V/ N; q6 Astocks, even those in the same group. Therefore, judge each stock individually and keep up , Z1 z( D" f' n8 ~1 v; S2 W7 b
weekly and monthly charts on them./ n: q' @8 m1 i v, O. r
- b# d2 U) E7 T/ E/ C- [Never decide that the main trend has changed one way or the other without consulting the % A0 n% M& L- W6 v5 R! L8 c7 V: E
angles from top or bottom and without considering the position of the market and cycle of
. i6 I6 W' ?% ^* x% r4 Z* zeach individual stock.
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Always consider the annual forecast and whether the big time limit has run out or not before + ?! G4 ?% z: b5 A; i+ f( _
judging a reverse move. Do not fail to consider the indications on Time, both from main tops * ]8 U0 l' j& D7 Q: H
and bottoms, also Volume of Sales and position on Geometrical Angles.
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, u1 Q J$ b( t# F }- b; wA daily chart gives the first short change, which may run for 7 to 10 days; the Weekly Chart
" f9 N! l8 e4 O( n1 Ngives the next important change in trend; and the Monthly the strongest. Remember, weekly
% S2 g6 |# V; f- N; @" e; xmoves run 3 to 7 weeks, monthly moves 2 to 3 months or more, according to the yearly cycle,
6 Y& N6 l; Y7 L: f. b" I! i6 s& mbefore reversing.
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% \5 n( y6 m6 B* e t, z$ pYearly bottoms and tops: it is important to know whether a stock is making higher or lower ' p. D6 I \1 p' P6 d- i
bottoms each year. For instance, if a stock has made a higher bottom each year for five years, # G) X& k' t+ y9 J
then makes a lower bottom than the previous year, it is a sign of reversal and may mark a long
8 t0 v" Z, Q* \1 ~2 H3 ~down cycle. The same rule applies when stocks are making lower tops for a number of years . _" r; |$ }6 B8 c5 S
in a bear market.+ x0 g7 v7 `0 W4 q1 j$ Z
4 V! g$ Q" Q; d F7 D c/ LWhen extreme advances or declines occur, the first time the market reverses over 1/4 to 1/2 of 4 O: x' P2 p( w/ Z
the distance covered in the previous movement, you consider that the trend has changed, at
+ L5 H5 [! Q/ u3 {least temporarily.
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It is important to watch space movements. When Time is running out one way or the other, ! B. W9 @, v* h! a+ ^: U. z
space movements will show a reversal by breaking back over 1/4, 1/3 or 1/2 of the distance of % _- G7 ]) Q) O0 m
the last move from extreme low to extreme high, which indicates that the main trend has - `9 C9 }5 ~9 U$ f3 V5 F
changed.
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Study all the instructions and rules that I have given you; read them over several times, as 2 g. Q; ~$ q! x+ s4 T
each time they will become clearer to you. Study the charts and work out the rules in actual ) Z' h+ v9 T3 V7 J: r1 z% b
practice as well as on past performance. In this way, you will make progress and will realize ! C* n, z% [+ L( _( e( k
and appreciate the value of my Method of Forecasting.
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发表于 2009-4-30 10:58:01
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楼主
发表于 2009-4-30 11:22:23
哦，原来是007兄！
发表于 2009-5-3 10:30:27
发表于 2009-5-4 12:51:27
