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1.首发。转载请注明出处——阳光飞狐/江恩理论；当然还有译者。谢谢！
$ a" z/ g6 }4 P7 d' @$ U2.译文乃初稿，未校稿，仅供参考！
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原文：: x& h& C/ k0 D. W P
IMPORTANT POINTS TO REMEMBER IN FORECASTING
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TIME is the most important factor of all, and not until sufficient time has expired does any ' n" C; D9 |0 K! V$ u; }# Y3 L
big move up or down, start. The Time factor will overbalance both Space and Volume.
, H& D" o6 B. C) B% V' z" XWhen Time is up, space movement will start and big volume will begin, either up or down. 2 k3 C. \1 f0 n- J/ n$ M
At the end of any big movement – with monthly, weekly, or daily – Time, must be allowed
8 S( H& O' h8 ~$ z( x d- n7 ?% qfor accumulation or distribution.2 a1 h) g- |% D& o" Y
% r+ Z( M0 ?0 S$ O( GConsider each individual stock and determine its trend from its position, according to distance
6 s6 K L9 ?# T+ }9 ]9 i3 Y0 {4 Pin time from bottom or top. Each stock works out its 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 10, 15, 20, 30, 50 and 60-# z. l' s, Q$ L7 A% K3 B. E2 @! |
year cycles from its own base or bottoms and tops, regardless of the movements of other 3 n4 O7 {1 b+ |
stocks, even those in the same group. Therefore, judge each stock individually and keep up * L) `$ D8 F' o; j
weekly and monthly charts on them.0 }& Q2 l5 |8 O W! ?, s* g# m
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Never decide that the main trend has changed one way or the other without consulting the
8 Z1 E$ r9 j) S# _# [7 pangles from top or bottom and without considering the position of the market and cycle of
1 y U0 S$ n$ I9 Keach individual stock.' d( h( a6 J& W) {9 c$ F- e7 I
6 y! t0 N/ p2 AAlways consider the annual forecast and whether the big time limit has run out or not before
/ U6 y& Q8 t! j5 Ajudging a reverse move. Do not fail to consider the indications on Time, both from main tops
" U; j; B+ f+ X6 N4 L) {and bottoms, also Volume of Sales and position on Geometrical Angles., M9 m$ N! @5 m- d' F t
2 C* S2 B+ M( ?* {% V( JA daily chart gives the first short change, which may run for 7 to 10 days; the Weekly Chart
8 N$ h( b+ v+ F7 }/ cgives the next important change in trend; and the Monthly the strongest. Remember, weekly$ \' w. y5 o5 s, E
moves run 3 to 7 weeks, monthly moves 2 to 3 months or more, according to the yearly cycle, 8 K; q+ }$ _) d) S
before reversing.
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/ N0 s! b% g- W* d& I) IYearly bottoms and tops: it is important to know whether a stock is making higher or lower
) l9 V8 M$ ?: U4 s! y0 w3 jbottoms each year. For instance, if a stock has made a higher bottom each year for five years,
8 k$ _6 g3 \- H+ g8 h0 athen makes a lower bottom than the previous year, it is a sign of reversal and may mark a long ' o& W Y- G) C0 a( j, F6 ?# r) r
down cycle. The same rule applies when stocks are making lower tops for a number of years ! x0 [3 g6 m" q- D
in a bear market.
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When extreme advances or declines occur, the first time the market reverses over 1/4 to 1/2 of
7 [0 N Z3 @& M& X4 M2 k# u* z) Uthe distance covered in the previous movement, you consider that the trend has changed, at n2 l* a# ]: o- d4 Y4 f+ W
least temporarily.( W3 n7 Q: }# v+ R
- Y6 H& Y6 [# l2 g! `1 CIt is important to watch space movements. When Time is running out one way or the other,
! t9 Q& {! k) }" D9 ~8 Ospace movements will show a reversal by breaking back over 1/4, 1/3 or 1/2 of the distance of
3 b, N% \6 C4 S. u" ?. p/ Ythe last move from extreme low to extreme high, which indicates that the main trend has 6 a8 F. f& m# Z
changed.2 K1 d& `; @! g# k) t2 |: P$ r
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Study all the instructions and rules that I have given you; read them over several times, as
% N7 N/ c3 {! H3 B5 G" h9 O1 keach time they will become clearer to you. Study the charts and work out the rules in actual
5 A' @. T5 G6 x& P4 t% T2 Gpractice as well as on past performance. In this way, you will make progress and will realize . _" s" l) P# \+ ?6 R
and appreciate the value of my Method of Forecasting.
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发表于 2009-4-30 10:58:01
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楼主
发表于 2009-4-30 11:22:23
哦，原来是007兄！
发表于 2009-5-3 10:30:27
发表于 2009-5-4 12:51:27
