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% `: e; |8 v U7 y2 [1.首发。转载请注明出处——阳光飞狐/江恩理论；当然还有译者。谢谢！2 ^' C( y* H% @: @( S0 G5 \$ }
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原文：5 ?, t- u+ C! h; E; t
IMPORTANT POINTS TO REMEMBER IN FORECASTING
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TIME is the most important factor of all, and not until sufficient time has expired does any , ?' w$ O) z' M2 P' k( s% W7 A# d
big move up or down, start. The Time factor will overbalance both Space and Volume.
" A2 s4 r2 N( S: Z. AWhen Time is up, space movement will start and big volume will begin, either up or down. 7 M7 l' M" ~0 ?9 ?- {% J& M
At the end of any big movement – with monthly, weekly, or daily – Time, must be allowed 1 [) `/ B# ~* t) W% x- \
for accumulation or distribution.8 l- W, D, L1 D9 l4 P: w% q
+ B( \/ m! \& L& X" ]% g% e: f V% LConsider each individual stock and determine its trend from its position, according to distance 1 @0 S! V: D$ ^
in time from bottom or top. Each stock works out its 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 10, 15, 20, 30, 50 and 60-- M. w Q% Y+ g# j
year cycles from its own base or bottoms and tops, regardless of the movements of other 1 P1 E/ I: {! g& H
stocks, even those in the same group. Therefore, judge each stock individually and keep up 1 f% y0 d5 j9 J. v' O5 N2 N
weekly and monthly charts on them.0 T8 \# b& m7 F; G* Y
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Never decide that the main trend has changed one way or the other without consulting the # O5 D$ L* x, [" z9 R
angles from top or bottom and without considering the position of the market and cycle of * T( G1 Q2 F! L: Z
each individual stock.2 a+ T" Z# q; q5 z Y0 t
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Always consider the annual forecast and whether the big time limit has run out or not before 0 P! J+ A$ W$ r" z
judging a reverse move. Do not fail to consider the indications on Time, both from main tops $ e& l8 f# m% F2 Y, \; R
and bottoms, also Volume of Sales and position on Geometrical Angles.5 y# b7 m( Y# s0 e: T
, l$ L7 _# a* H RA daily chart gives the first short change, which may run for 7 to 10 days; the Weekly Chart
8 W' T. }# U5 q; hgives the next important change in trend; and the Monthly the strongest. Remember, weekly
& C& c1 {2 S( a/ P# Emoves run 3 to 7 weeks, monthly moves 2 to 3 months or more, according to the yearly cycle, 0 W1 f" Y6 c U4 N% b
before reversing.
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Yearly bottoms and tops: it is important to know whether a stock is making higher or lower
1 s* P9 K7 U# `5 l: ubottoms each year. For instance, if a stock has made a higher bottom each year for five years, 2 z; R8 c& _/ F+ s
then makes a lower bottom than the previous year, it is a sign of reversal and may mark a long 0 T" r" r) y7 t( S/ @
down cycle. The same rule applies when stocks are making lower tops for a number of years : R7 @8 Y7 a7 F U g1 p
in a bear market.
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$ |/ O% o7 a$ f& {5 Q- t* T/ FWhen extreme advances or declines occur, the first time the market reverses over 1/4 to 1/2 of
6 h2 H8 @) J9 N& b# sthe distance covered in the previous movement, you consider that the trend has changed, at , ?" _1 S* ]6 d+ C
least temporarily.
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]7 J; ~* ~( j' I: m" }! `It is important to watch space movements. When Time is running out one way or the other,
0 v4 L0 v( W8 qspace movements will show a reversal by breaking back over 1/4, 1/3 or 1/2 of the distance of
. P' b" P; h3 m2 ]% b; |' Qthe last move from extreme low to extreme high, which indicates that the main trend has 1 e8 i# F9 f7 Y3 G" A9 f% ?: w" E
changed.8 |3 M2 c }; p7 @5 B
4 g! E$ _- a8 H9 y! m0 hStudy all the instructions and rules that I have given you; read them over several times, as 5 K* M% X: t/ D0 P T/ z- g
each time they will become clearer to you. Study the charts and work out the rules in actual
. b: A& M& M, Q4 D) _9 O6 A& ]practice as well as on past performance. In this way, you will make progress and will realize
$ L+ W, c* Q$ p) {& t8 Iand appreciate the value of my Method of Forecasting.
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发表于 2009-4-30 10:58:01
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楼主
发表于 2009-4-30 11:22:23
哦，原来是007兄！
发表于 2009-5-3 10:30:27
发表于 2009-5-4 12:51:27
