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+ j0 u" X" |. b& D5 @1.首发。转载请注明出处——阳光飞狐/江恩理论；当然还有译者。谢谢！3 N2 K% Z& G# x- M3 U4 v
2.译文乃初稿，未校稿，仅供参考！. z" a2 ?5 Q P2 v' N) v
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原文：" k/ g" T3 K* ^, U7 E- ?, {
IMPORTANT POINTS TO REMEMBER IN FORECASTING; w. Y# Y& R4 b& @2 M' N1 o
( G. I- Q. F* L9 STIME is the most important factor of all, and not until sufficient time has expired does any 2 i0 _ M! w! r$ f( }
big move up or down, start. The Time factor will overbalance both Space and Volume. 6 @5 b) G- \! q$ { x
When Time is up, space movement will start and big volume will begin, either up or down. % e+ |6 k) z% x5 h7 ^- f
At the end of any big movement – with monthly, weekly, or daily – Time, must be allowed
H/ l0 j3 Y1 I# q6 s! Q7 Vfor accumulation or distribution.0 e- A% a8 R9 Y) O2 e- h3 S
# V0 b! u5 o9 ?9 C. NConsider each individual stock and determine its trend from its position, according to distance
4 N- D9 H% E- F3 j Tin time from bottom or top. Each stock works out its 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 10, 15, 20, 30, 50 and 60-
4 E' D. S0 h! p* q8 ?year cycles from its own base or bottoms and tops, regardless of the movements of other ! U" V& G1 T1 S# {7 i
stocks, even those in the same group. Therefore, judge each stock individually and keep up 8 N# C, P- s: C) U. h5 a" ?
weekly and monthly charts on them.# ~9 ^# w" x, `1 W5 S
4 W0 G: B5 o- k4 @, F* \! INever decide that the main trend has changed one way or the other without consulting the
1 z* o* r" e# J6 Dangles from top or bottom and without considering the position of the market and cycle of / z3 s8 T% a! r) s
each individual stock.
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! z' R, A, Z7 Z, K5 HAlways consider the annual forecast and whether the big time limit has run out or not before 4 }* |; e# Z+ O9 G& y
judging a reverse move. Do not fail to consider the indications on Time, both from main tops " G% y$ u6 m" ]% |+ q( M% j$ T
and bottoms, also Volume of Sales and position on Geometrical Angles./ i' i+ u; i8 u4 O" M# t
, q+ L. e5 H3 P9 O+ b& D& {* U) ZA daily chart gives the first short change, which may run for 7 to 10 days; the Weekly Chart 9 ~" L* |$ L8 T g2 \
gives the next important change in trend; and the Monthly the strongest. Remember, weekly' N; n7 e/ P9 ]3 a3 u! C( W
moves run 3 to 7 weeks, monthly moves 2 to 3 months or more, according to the yearly cycle,
3 o* \. m, O; A8 {before reversing.
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4 f ]$ _* V( E( r6 ?4 d8 ]Yearly bottoms and tops: it is important to know whether a stock is making higher or lower + ]! e* u! O- f
bottoms each year. For instance, if a stock has made a higher bottom each year for five years, 4 B, ?6 r9 @. d& z& V
then makes a lower bottom than the previous year, it is a sign of reversal and may mark a long
/ c4 q+ G9 ~& R( r3 @down cycle. The same rule applies when stocks are making lower tops for a number of years " g5 z8 @% N" K6 N8 x; y7 f* L
in a bear market.; g; i, e" G) M o$ X8 G) L8 U8 Y( j
/ _$ l! N. n3 @3 H' X0 p8 PWhen extreme advances or declines occur, the first time the market reverses over 1/4 to 1/2 of & o9 ]& K* k8 w; l4 G# @& _
the distance covered in the previous movement, you consider that the trend has changed, at
; y' I$ _# t0 E/ g" eleast temporarily.
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It is important to watch space movements. When Time is running out one way or the other,
9 d; j8 l& A, s4 `3 ?3 H+ ^space movements will show a reversal by breaking back over 1/4, 1/3 or 1/2 of the distance of
) V9 ~! `( B6 g8 ]7 r' \# ~. ?the last move from extreme low to extreme high, which indicates that the main trend has
4 G" W" t/ c) L" uchanged.
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Study all the instructions and rules that I have given you; read them over several times, as 6 h, ^1 T2 z6 `3 ^
each time they will become clearer to you. Study the charts and work out the rules in actual
R! }! h& K# J/ S( [) p. tpractice as well as on past performance. In this way, you will make progress and will realize / s7 B% h8 T) O7 l. t2 C. K e: ~( U
and appreciate the value of my Method of Forecasting.
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发表于 2009-4-30 10:58:01
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楼主
发表于 2009-4-30 11:22:23
哦，原来是007兄！
发表于 2009-5-3 10:30:27
发表于 2009-5-4 12:51:27
