|
TIME AND PRICE BALANCE # ]7 F, V1 L n. R. ~4 S$ i" ^
By recording the greatest reaction in Price, when the market is advancing and the
! S; l% Q2 S( Z9 i% N$ B; S4 ]greatest Time Period of reaction occurs, you will be able to tell when the market is
4 }1 G4 l: O$ h* iover-balanced. + n/ q, z7 |9 v( F x+ x
Examples: November Beans, May 25, high 230. June 16, low 208, a Price decline 0 e1 w8 \3 X+ ~8 j6 M) T+ C- H
of 22¢ per bushel, time 22 calendar days and 18 market days. June 21 to 24th, the
' H# _9 F' m+ x6 i" b5 E% mmarket declined 3 days and the Price decline was 5-½¢. July 17, high 257½. July
4 l9 p+ x( F! L& y2 n9 {+ ]4 g n19, low 240, a decline of 17½¢ per bushel in 2 days. Price had overbalanced the
. k; k8 r5 `& \7 v% h) R) Iprevious reaction, but Time had not over balanced.
4 x9 y+ `6 `* J3 dJuly 26, extreme high 272. this was a SIGNAL DAY and a GAP DAY which was & b# c7 O& s9 B J" G- @) `* M
an EXHAUST GAP, and you would have gotten out of the market and been short . F1 f+ F3 R* z d+ f
on these rules. July 29, low 259½, a decline of 12½¢ in 3 days. This had
/ S1 s9 b8 d+ Vexceeded the Time Period of the reaction on June 19 and had over balanced the
# J& I3 z% v3 C. |7 {- zTime. The decline continued to August 2, low 256, down 16¢ time 7 days. A 1-
' z1 ~6 c+ h6 Z, s8 ~4 sday rally followed to August 3, high 261½ , up 5½¢, the same as the decline from 0 q: y. A: y- U$ @ [3 W0 ]) [
June 21 to 24th. After August 3, the decline continued and when prices were down
! C: o, n# c! J- _; W$ kmore than 17½¢, they over balanced the Price decline from July 17 to 19th. After
- Z# c1 |5 B" O4 B. `' ^this, the decline was faster to August 15, low 236¼, a decline of 35-3/4¢ from 272. * P' _+ V% R- r; \4 }6 O
August 15 was a SIGNAL DAY and was also 60 days from June 16, low. This ! p+ m+ U5 v, y
was a buying indication where you would cover shorts and buy. * \- f7 s/ R3 [
From July 26 to August 15, the greatest rally was 2 days, and when Prices ! h F, M+ M, i: D: o9 A
advanced for 3 days they had over balanced the Time Period, and indicated higher 2 ^4 W$ L, o* U3 L' Z
prices; and when Prices advanced more than 5½ ¢ per bushel they had over
3 y6 @' v0 `8 _" X6 Z; k [, V1 t$ \balanced the Price rally.
! h. b. C' W, A From August 15 to 30 there was only one 2-day reaction. On August 30 the high 8 Z4 H+ q" e* i" ]) R+ E
on November Beans was 254¼ , which was ½ point between 272 and 236¼. This
9 ~; Y1 j l% J½ point was the selling level where you would sell out long Beans and sell short. ?/ r: f0 e; K( B* o+ |
After Prices declined for 3 days they had over balanced the Time Period. The Price
u$ n( L8 ]& w, {7 M' sadvance from August 18 to 22nd was 5¢ per bushel; therefore, when Prices " `: D% o3 q/ m1 c$ {$ ]
declined more than 5¢ they had over balanced the Price move of the previous rally. 4 W( l2 A K/ y# |+ ~6 R2 H
October 7 to 16 Prices made lower tops and lower bottoms each day and were , ~/ `' ^& f! A( y; s3 A; u
down 7 days. You would apply the 7 to 10-DAY RULE and follow the market
. x9 h3 R3 `1 k- Z ^7 edown with stop loss order 1¢ above each day’s high. On October 16 the high was
1 N% b9 \& |* ]) P. a C229-3/4. This would make the stop loss order 230-3/4. However, after the
/ d% t6 x! v! j( a) G4 GSIGNAL DAY, on October 16, you should have covered shorts and bought % _$ H1 z$ x6 i* p3 x
November Beans because this SIGNAL DAY occurred on an exact Time Period 1 Z4 {% s2 k5 x; e; [
1/3 of a year from the low of June 16.
i9 v/ K N& _/ `: `3 VFrom October 16, low, a sharp advance followed and when Prices crossed 231½ , ( V- ^. u) W. `- [' r" b b0 j
on October 18, which was the ½ point of the life of the option, you had another 2 Z0 k' _5 D7 V4 _2 a
SIGNAL TO BUY, and could expect the advance to Balance the move between
% s0 F, B4 \( S# q, p8 l) q8 cAugust 15 to 30th which was 18¢ per bushel. October 23, November Beans 8 Z# x6 w+ l; P0 [' d1 p
advanced to 245-3/4 which was slightly more than 18¢ per bushel and then reacted $ \) X. w. {; X: R# X) I
slightly, indicating higher Prices. $ g( W3 x5 \* [4 { S- e
By watching the Balancing of Time and Price, together with the other rules, it will & ^( @& W2 \/ j: j
help you to determine when Prices are reaching Extreme Highs or Extreme Lows.
, e. J" i: d! w5 ]* ~! H: W% ZTHE W.D. GANN MASTER COMMODITIES COURSE
2 c" D0 H& r+ U# t" g5 Q$ M( s# r7 y! X% h6 a
[本帖最后由 yay 于 2008-11-19 00:07 编辑 ] | 
|小黑屋|手机版|Archiver|【阳光飞狐】
( 网站ICP编号：京ICP备06013475号-7 )
发表于 2008-11-19 08:06:24
收藏
分享
发表于 2013-8-25 22:29:08
发表于 2008-11-19 22:14:14
