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TIME AND PRICE BALANCE ! q% i ^. E4 M8 g( P
By recording the greatest reaction in Price, when the market is advancing and the
7 f& |+ X2 V/ Z" L0 o" ngreatest Time Period of reaction occurs, you will be able to tell when the market is
, i8 m3 _' j' v9 _% m" r6 a; vover-balanced.
3 i1 c. @/ S+ G8 Z' c9 _Examples: November Beans, May 25, high 230. June 16, low 208, a Price decline
2 B- Y( [! u( X" @9 w+ k; sof 22¢ per bushel, time 22 calendar days and 18 market days. June 21 to 24th, the
- q) o+ M( J5 @3 m! h$ Tmarket declined 3 days and the Price decline was 5-½¢. July 17, high 257½. July % L% T# |& J) ^5 p+ n7 l
19, low 240, a decline of 17½¢ per bushel in 2 days. Price had overbalanced the 4 @3 ]4 W3 E2 Y! N
previous reaction, but Time had not over balanced. ! L1 V4 q7 @0 A
July 26, extreme high 272. this was a SIGNAL DAY and a GAP DAY which was , Y. p! B2 a4 L; K4 u" z
an EXHAUST GAP, and you would have gotten out of the market and been short / G2 c7 E. {6 j# V+ n
on these rules. July 29, low 259½, a decline of 12½¢ in 3 days. This had ) e3 S4 G: s! H) W
exceeded the Time Period of the reaction on June 19 and had over balanced the
% _6 k$ z& g5 zTime. The decline continued to August 2, low 256, down 16¢ time 7 days. A 1-
; A3 y7 q# Y! ~0 I- kday rally followed to August 3, high 261½ , up 5½¢, the same as the decline from 2 b7 W4 T+ d+ Y6 C
June 21 to 24th. After August 3, the decline continued and when prices were down % l3 t* f8 q- y" \) {6 }" Q8 T
more than 17½¢, they over balanced the Price decline from July 17 to 19th. After
5 T; x- I2 h& I4 Othis, the decline was faster to August 15, low 236¼, a decline of 35-3/4¢ from 272.
r- l( ?4 s; p5 Y0 oAugust 15 was a SIGNAL DAY and was also 60 days from June 16, low. This
4 I3 x+ y% s& H- d" a dwas a buying indication where you would cover shorts and buy. " w# l; s" a c* m, K1 M# N
From July 26 to August 15, the greatest rally was 2 days, and when Prices
. e) x0 t8 {7 k* m1 c: sadvanced for 3 days they had over balanced the Time Period, and indicated higher
9 u E1 @0 O$ d+ g$ ]prices; and when Prices advanced more than 5½ ¢ per bushel they had over * j4 N2 y/ S0 n* ]) G a
balanced the Price rally.
! j; z `- `! n4 o From August 15 to 30 there was only one 2-day reaction. On August 30 the high
/ Q1 T' e% O3 L+ a* I. w+ ]on November Beans was 254¼ , which was ½ point between 272 and 236¼. This
4 ~+ _3 Y1 B$ F: F3 K½ point was the selling level where you would sell out long Beans and sell short. 1 ^' F3 `% R' [( e/ |, \* D2 k& K: y
After Prices declined for 3 days they had over balanced the Time Period. The Price
8 c6 H- _# R! b7 {4 {, g% jadvance from August 18 to 22nd was 5¢ per bushel; therefore, when Prices - q) U3 U7 @1 Y2 N& \ Y
declined more than 5¢ they had over balanced the Price move of the previous rally.
8 i* \0 j( O, p; Y. Z) B! a9 NOctober 7 to 16 Prices made lower tops and lower bottoms each day and were ! v" [( }& y B1 a6 F, _
down 7 days. You would apply the 7 to 10-DAY RULE and follow the market * G1 e1 e# h' f! L
down with stop loss order 1¢ above each day’s high. On October 16 the high was 3 p* x8 T- z2 d' C7 E7 i
229-3/4. This would make the stop loss order 230-3/4. However, after the
" f: h% f' I' z" M8 C ^SIGNAL DAY, on October 16, you should have covered shorts and bought
, @' g4 K+ i4 M. u% O) u) _4 oNovember Beans because this SIGNAL DAY occurred on an exact Time Period
( j) T$ @0 y5 a& u1/3 of a year from the low of June 16. ( Z+ L; b& @+ P/ ^# X6 p
From October 16, low, a sharp advance followed and when Prices crossed 231½ , ' ]9 E" K9 L" @3 @2 }
on October 18, which was the ½ point of the life of the option, you had another
' n, x: K) M* HSIGNAL TO BUY, and could expect the advance to Balance the move between
3 L6 O" \3 ^4 D0 dAugust 15 to 30th which was 18¢ per bushel. October 23, November Beans ! i/ U8 K6 [2 D' n$ g3 Y0 D
advanced to 245-3/4 which was slightly more than 18¢ per bushel and then reacted
! p+ z3 r( ]' Nslightly, indicating higher Prices.
3 ?& O/ F4 d2 D- J. y By watching the Balancing of Time and Price, together with the other rules, it will
5 k1 H8 S6 F) O7 ~help you to determine when Prices are reaching Extreme Highs or Extreme Lows.
w, u; O3 I. i jTHE W.D. GANN MASTER COMMODITIES COURSE ; O( C. [% v s1 d9 t
i: }- B/ F) B. U( M4 V+ k
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发表于 2008-11-19 08:06:24
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发表于 2008-11-19 08:17:18
发表于 2008-11-19 09:26:40
发表于 2008-11-19 11:08:13
楼主
。你千万别笑。。真的。
