Time Analysis
Gann was a master of confluence cycle analysis. Few students of Gann realize the first edition of his book How to Make Profits trading in Commodities (W.D. Gann & Son, Inc.,1941) describes different charts than does his revised 1951 edition (Lambert-Gann Publishing Company Inc.) in distribution today. There are so few copies of the 1941 edition that they are hand corrected. Gann's time analysis goes much further than mapping market turns. His method mapped the social, economic, and geopolitical cycles defining periods ofprosperity and contraction. In the 1941 edition, he wrote a segment titled "Why Hitler Will
Lose the War" about the coming war with Germany before the United States entered WWII.
Gann's 1951 release of How to Make Profits in Commodities not only removed the commentary with his opinions on the war but also changed some of the charts he used for his illustrations. Why? The charts he used in the second edition to replace those in the first proved that the same methods still applied in different examples a decade later.Furthermore, the advanced student will discover the two books together reveal hisapplication of sacred geometry to mark inflection dates and that there are measurable harmonic relationships between significant market turns. Because markets respect the mathematics of harmonic frequency ratios, it explains why a market can develop a perfect signal in momentum indicators that becomes a failure. The signals that develop in charts outside these key confluence points must be ignored as they are out of phase or should be considered disharmonic signals of low probability. Seeking confirmation of signals across different charting periods and finding inflection points with target confluences in the same chart all serve to find the harmonic key the market is respecting whether the trader is aware of this concept of harmonic relationships or not. Sadly, because of the obscure manner in which Gann released his methodology, many of the books in print today fail to recognize these essential concepts that enhance many of today's technical studies.
Gann's methods warn that the years 2008 to 2012 will be difficult ones. There will also be an economic contraction that will be felt globally between 2019 and 2021. The cycle ofbear markets is actually one of the easier time targets to uncover. But it takes discipline to master the methods to detect precise target dates at defined price levels. Gann was the master of the conceptual use of confluence zones. The use of multiple Fibonacci calculations provided an introduction to the formation of confluence targets. But Gann's use of confluence was far more sophisticated because his work viewed confluence as the intersection where horizontal, vertical, and diagonal projections converge. Horizontal is price, vertical is time, and diagonal is geometric space. In Figure 5.9, the 3-month Eurodollar displays one type of time cycle Gann used. It's called a retrograde cycle. The bullet over a price bar does not mean a projected swing high; it denotes a time target. To understand the cycle displayed in this chart, a description of retrograde is required.
[ 本帖最后由 yay 于 2009-4-14 01:03 编辑 ] |