The Time Factor of W.D. Gann By James Smithson
江恩的时间因素 作者：詹姆斯。史密森
W. D. Gann’s outstanding skill was his ability to produce accurate annual forecasts of the stock and commodity markets. Gann stated that his forecasts were based on his secret “ factor”. However, careful analysis of his novel entitled “The Tunnel Thru The Air” reveals Gann’s belief in the overwhelming importance of astrology. Therefore astrology is the real basis of Gann’s annual forecasts. Indeed, astrological analysis is implicit at key points in his books and courses. Consequently it is concluded that if we wish to emulate Gann’s outstanding forecasting skills we must follow in his footsteps by firstly learning astrology and then apply this knowledge to the stock and commodity markets.
江恩最突出的成绩就是他有能力在每年的期刊上正确的预测股票和期货。江恩的定期预测是建立在他自己的神秘的“时间因素”上的。但是，细心的研究者在他的名为“空中隧道”的小说中会发现，小说展示了江恩对占星术重要性的深刻信仰。因此占星术就是江恩定期性预测的真实基础。当然，占星分析在他的书籍和课程中只是一种暗示性的关键点。因此可以断言，假如你希望仿效江恩的突出的预测水平，就必须跟随他的脚步首先去学习占星术然后将这种知识应用于股票和期货市场。
THE “TIME FACTOR” IS THE KEY TO GANN’S FORECASTS
时间因素是江恩预测的核心
Gann’s forecasts of the stock and commodity markets were based on the “ factor” 。Gann provided the following comments on the time factor:
江恩关于股票和期货市场的预测是基于时间因素，江恩给出了下面这些时间因素的一些解释：
“The most important thing of all is the Time factor, which I use in making up my annual forecasts. It is not my object here to give away that secret, but I am showing you plain enough and giving you rules enough that, if you follow them, you will be able to make a success in the stock market” (“Truth Of The Stock Tape”, 1923, page 116).
在所有事物中最重要的是时间因素，我用它来建立我每年的预测。这里我没有义务来展示所有的秘密。但是我会给你足够的证明和足够的法则方法，假如你跟随这些方法，你将能够在股票市场取得成功
“Many people want to know what method I use to determine future indications on the market. I keep charts of the various active stocks and also a set of averages. My charts are different from the charts of the average statistician because they are based on a discovery of my own. I have discovered a ‘time’ factor that enables me to determine important tops and bottoms one year or more in advance. My annual forecasts on stocks, issued in December for ten years past, have proved remarkably correct. The cotton and grain markets can also be forecast by this ‘time’ factor, which enables me to tell when extreme highs and lows will be made, as well as the minor moves” (“Truth Of The Stock Tape”, 1923, page 41 of appendix).
很多人都想知道我用什么样的方法来确定未来市场的走向。我使用多种现行的股票图表并也根据它们进行买卖交易。我的图表和一般的统计性图表不同，它使用了我自己发现的一些东西作为基础。我发现了一种时间因素以使我能够确定一年内甚至更长时间的重要顶部和底部。我每年一期的出版物在12月份已经满10年了，显然证明是成功的。棉花和谷物市场也同样可以用这种时间因素来进行预测，这种时间因素能够告诉我最终的高点和低点在那里，对次级波动也同样有效。
“The time factor and time periods are most important in determining a change in trend because time can over balance price, and when the time is up the volume of sales will increase and force prices higher or lower” (“45 Years In Wall Street”, 1941, page 10).
时间因素和时间周期是确定趋势转变的最重要因素，因为时间可以超过价格的平衡，当时间到达成交量将增加并迫使价格走高或走低。
“Time is the most important factor of all and not until sufficient time has expired does any big move start up or down. The time factor will overbalance both space and volume. When time is up, space movement will start and large volume will begin, either up or down. At the end of any important movement - monthly, weekly or daily - Time must be allowed for accumulation or distribution or for buying and selling to be completed” (“How To Make Profits In Commodities”, 1951, page 56).
时间是最重要的因素，时间如果不到它的期限，比较大的上涨和下跌不会发生。时间因素将失去和空间以及成交量之间的平衡，当时间到达，空间的移动将开始，并开始产生巨大的成交量，不论上涨或下跌都一样。在重要的波动结束的时候，月，周，日，时间的力量将被聚集或散布使得买卖交易过程终结。
Therefore we learn from Gann that:
1) The time factor is the most important element in forecasting markets; and therefore he used this time factor in producing his highly-accurate annual forecasts of the stock and commodity markets.
2) The time factor is so fundamental that it precedes (and therefore causes) changes in prices and changes in volume in the stock and commodity markets.
3) The time factor is a valuable secret, details of which he is unwilling to reveal. He is however prepared to teach trading rules which, when properly applied, produce profits in the stock and commodity markets.
这里我们从江恩那里学到如下这些：
1）时间因素是最重要的市场预测元素，因此他用这种方法在期货和股票市场都取得了极高的成功率。
2）时间因素因为是基本因素所以它的改变超前于股票和期货市场中价格和成交量的改变。
3）时间因素是个昂贵的秘密，他不愿意展现全部的详细资料，但他仍然愿意传授一些适当应用的交易法则。
GANN’S NOVEL ENTITLED “THE TUNNEL THRU THE AIR”
江恩所创作的小说标题为“空中隧道”
Although Gann was unwilling to explicitly reveal his time factor in his books and courses on trading the stock and commodity markets, he was prepared to leave strong clues in his novel entitled “The Tunnel Thru The Air”, which he wrote in 1927.
尽管江恩不愿意在他有关股票和期货交易的书和课程里详细的解释他的时间因素，他还是在1927年写下的题为“空中隧道”的小说中留下了重要线索。
Gann’s “valuable secret, clothed in veiled language” is that, as the Bible clearly states, astrology really works. This theme runs throughout the book and is highlighted in the following quotations:
江恩的“隐藏在文字中的贵重的秘密”其实就是《圣经》和占星术。贯穿在这本书里比较突出的引用有：
“Robert was a great believer in Astrology because he had found this great science referred to so many times in the Holy Bible. He had made notes as he read the Bible at different times where it referred to Astrology or the signs in the heavens and was thoroughly convinced that the influence of the heavenly bodies govern our lives” (page 172).
罗博特深信占星术因为他在神圣的书《圣经》里找到了这种伟大的科学。他在和占星和天空的标记有关的《圣经》记述中学习和笔记，他确信天上的影响将足以支配我们的生活。
“I believe in the stars, I believe in astrology, and I have figured out my destiny. The Bible makes it plain that the stars do rule” (page 66).
我相信天体，我相信占星，我已经计算出我的命运。《圣经》对天体的控制影响这方面解释的非常清楚。
“Through my study of the Bible, I have determined the major and minor time factors which repeat in the history of nations, men and markets” (page 70).
通过我对《圣经》的学习，我已经确定了在国家，人类和市场的历史循环重现上的主要和次要的时间因素。
“I have studied the Bible very carefully because I believe it is the greatest scientific book ever written. The laws are plainly laid down how to make a success. There is a time and a season for everything and if a man does things according to the time, he will succeed” (page 204).
我非常仔细的学习《圣经》因为我相信它是译本伟大的科学之书。获得成功法则明显的放在那里。任何事情都有一个时间和季节因素，假如一个人依照一个时间去行动，他就会获得成功。
“Robert had gone deeply into the Bible study in order to learn more about the great science of Astrology” (page 213).
罗博特努力的深入学习《圣经》以便学习更多的伟大的占星科学。
“He read all the books he could get on astrology and began to understand why things had happened as they had” (page 215).
他阅读所有他能找到的占星书籍并开始领悟到为什么事情总是重复发生。 |
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发表于 2009-2-23 14:27:19
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