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既然有兄弟需要，我来附上英文原文，请仔细阅读。。。
William D. Gann
An Operator Whose Science and Ability Place Him in the Front Rank - His Remarkable Predictions and Trading Records
By Richard D. Wyckoff, Ticker and Investment Digest
Sometimeago the attention of this magazine was attracted by certain long pullStock Market predictions which were being made by William D. Gann. In alarge number of cases Mr. Gann gave us, in advance, the exact points atwhich certain stocks and commodities would sell, together with pricesclose to the then prevailing figures which would not be touched.
Forinstance, when the New York Central was 131 he predicted that it wouldsell at 145 before 129. So repeatedly did his figures prove to beaccurate, and so different did his work appear from that of any expertwhose methods we had examined, that we set about to investigate Mr.Gann and his way of figuring out these predictions, as well as theparticular use which he was making of them in the market.
The results of this investigation are remarkable in many ways.
Itappears to be a fact Mr. W.D. Gann has developed an entirely new ideaas to the principles governing stock market movements. He bases hisoperations upon certain natural laws which, though existing since theworld began, have only in recent years been subjected to the will ofman and added to the list of so-called modern discoveries. We haveasked Mr. Gann for an outline of his work, and have secured someremarkable evidence as to the results obtained therefrom.
Wesubmit this in full recognition of the fact that in Wall Street a manwith a new idea, an idea which violates the traditions and encourages ascientific view of the Proposition, is not usually welcomed by themajority, for the reason that he stimulates thought and research. Theseactivities the said majority abhors.
W. D. Gann's descriptionof his experience and methods is given herewith. It should be read withrecognition of the established fact that Mr. Gann's predictions haveproved correct in a large majority of instances.
"For the pastten years I have devoted my entire time and attention to thespeculative markets. Like many others, I lost thousands of dollars andexperienced the usual ups and downs incidental to the novice who entersthe market without preparatory knowledge of the subject."
"Isoon began to realize that all successful men, whether Lawyers, Doctorsor Scientists, devoted years of time to the study and investigation oftheir particular pursuit or profession before attempting to make anymoney out of it."
"Being in the Brokerage business myself andhandling large accounts, I had opportunities seldom afforded theordinary man for studying the cause of success and failure in thespeculations of others. I found that over ninety percent of the traderswho go into the market without knowledge or study usually lose in theend."
"I soon began to note the periodical recurrence of therise and fall in stocks and commodities. This led me to conclude thatnatural law was the basis of market movements. I then decided to devoteten years of my life to the study of natural law as applicable to thespeculative markets and to devote my best energies toward makingspeculation a profitable profession. After exhaustive researches andinvestigations of the known sciences, I discovered that the law ofvibration enabled me to accurately determine the exact points at whichstocks or commodities should rise and fall within a given time."
The working out of this law determines the cause and predicts theeffect long before the street is aware of either. Most speculators cantestify to the fact that it is looking at the effect and ignoring thecause that has produced their losses.
"It is impossible here togive an adequate idea of the law of vibrations as I apply it to themarkets. However, the layman may be able to grasp some of theprinciples when I state that the law of vibration is the fundamentallaw upon which wireless telegraphy, wireless telephone and phonographsare based. Without the existence of this law the above inventions wouldhave been impossible."
"In order to test the efficiency of myidea I have not only put in years of labour in the regular way, but Ispent nine months working night and day in the Astor Library in NewYork and in the British Museum of London, going over the records ofstock transactions as far back as 1820. I have incidentally examinedthe manipulations of Jay Gould, Daniel Drew, Commodore Vanderbilt &all other important manipulators from that time to the present day. Ihave examined every quotation of Union Pacific prior to & from thetime of E. H. Harriman, Mr. Harriman's was the most masterly. Thefigures show that, whether unconsciously or not, Mr. Harriman workedstrictly in accordance with natural law."
"In going over thehistory of markets and the great mass of related statistics, it soonbecomes apparent that certain laws govern the changes and variations inthe value of stocks, and that there exists a periodic or cyclic lawwhich is at the back of all these movements. Observation has shown thatthere are regular periods of intense activity on the Exchange followedby periods of inactivity."
Mr. Henry Hall in his recent bookdevoted much space to "Cycles of Prosperity and Depression," which hefound recurring at regular intervals of time. The law which I haveapplied will not only give these long cycles or swings, but the dailyand even hourly movements of stocks. By knowing the exact vibration ofeach individual stock I am able to determine at what point each willreceive support and at what point the greatest resistance is to be met.
"Those in close touch with the market have noticed thephenomena of ebb and flow, or rise and fall, in the value of stocks. Atcertain times a stock will become intensely active, large transactionsbeing made in it; at other times this same stock will becomepractically stationary or inactive with a very small volume of sales. Ihave found that the law of vibration governs and controls theseconditions. I have also found that certain phases of this law governthe rise in a stock and an entirely different rule operates on thedecline."
"While Union Pacific and other railroad stocks whichmade their high prices in August were declining, United States SteelCommon was steadily advancing. The law of vibration was at work,sending a particular stock on the upward trend whilst others weretrending downward."
"I have found that in the stock itselfexists its harmonic or inharmonious relationship to the driving poweror force behind it. The secret of all its activity is thereforeapparent. By my method I can determine the vibration of each stock andalso, by taking certain time values into consideration, I can, in themajority of cases, tell exactly what the stock will do under givenconditions."
"The power to determine the trend of the marketis due to my knowledge of the characteristics of each individual stockand a certain grouping of different stocks under their proper rates ofvibration. Stocks are like electrons, atoms and molecules, which holdpersistently to their own individuality in response to the fundamentallaw of vibration. Science teaches that 'an original impulse of any kindfinally resolves itself into a periodic or rhythmical motion; also,just as the pendulum returns again in its swing, just as the moonreturns in its orbit, just as the advancing year over brings the roseof spring, so do the properties of the elements periodically recur asthe weight of the atoms rises."
"From my extensiveinvestigations, studies and applied tests, I find that not only do thevarious stocks vibrate, but that the driving forces controlling thestocks are also in a state of vibration. These vibratory forces canonly be known by the movements they generate on the stocks and theirvalues in the market. Since all great swings or movements of the marketare cyclic, they act in accordance with periodic law."
"Science has laid down the principle that the properties of an element are a periodic function of its atomic weight.A famous scientist has stated that 'we are brought to the convictionthat diversity in phenomenal nature in its different kingdoms is mostintimately associated with numerical relationship. The numbers are notintermixed accidentally but are subject to regular periodicity. Thechanges and developments are seen to be in many cases as somewhat odd."
Thus, I affirm every class of phenomena, whether in nature oron the stock market, must be subject to the universal law of causationand harmony. Every effect must have an adequate cause.
"If wewish to avert failure in speculation we must deal with causes.Everything in existence is based on exact proportion and perfectrelationship. There is no chance in nature, because mathematicalprinciples of the highest order lie at the foundation of all things.Faraday said, "There is nothing in the universe but mathematical pointsof force."
"Vibration is fundamental: nothing is exempt fromthis law. It is universal, therefore applicable to every class ofphenomena on the globe."
Through the law of vibration everystock in the market moves in its own distinctive sphere of activities,as to intensity, volume and direction; all the essential qualities ofits evolution are characterized in its own rate of vibration. Stocks,like atoms, are really centres of energy; therefore, they arecontrolled mathematically. Stocks create their own field of action andpower: power to attract and repel, which principle explains why certainstocks at times lead the market and 'turn dead' at other times. Thus,to speculate scientifically it is absolutely necessary to follownatural law.
"After years of patient study I have proven to myentire satisfaction, as well as demonstrated to others, that vibrationexplains every possible phase and condition of the market."
Inorder to substantiate Mr. W. D. Gann's claims as to what he has beenable to do under his method, we called upon Mr. William E. Gilley, anInspector of Imports, 16 Beaver Street, New York. Mr. Gilley is wellknown in the downtown district. He himself has studied stock marketmovements for twenty-five years, during which time he has examinedevery piece of market literature that has been issued & procurablein Wall Street. It was he who encouraged Mr. Gann to study thescientific and mathematical possibilities of the subject. When askedwhat had been the most impressive of Mr. Gann's work and predictions,he replied as follows :
"It is very difficult for me toremember all the predictions and operations of W. D. Gann which may beclassed as phenomenal, but the following are a few. "In 1908 when theUnion Pacific was 168-1/8, he told me it would not touch 169 before ithad a good break. We sold it short all the way down to 152-5/8,covering on the weak spots and putting it out again on the rallies,securing twenty-three points profit out of an eighteen-point marketwave."
"He came to me when United States Steel was sellingaround 50, and said, "This steel will run up to 58 but it will not sellat 59. From there it should break 16 points." We sold it short around58 with a stop at 59. The highest it went was 58. From there itdeclined to 41-17 points."
"At another time, wheat was sellingat about 89¢. Gann predicted that the May option would sell at $1.35.We bought it and made large profits on the way up. It actually touched$1.35."
"When Union Pacific was 172, he said it would go to184-7/8 but not an eighth higher until it had a good break. It went to184-7/8 and came back from there eight or nine times. We sold it shortrepeatedly, with a stop at 185, and were never caught. It eventuallycame back to 17."
"Mr. Gann's calculations are based onnatural law. I have followed Gann and his work closely for years. Iknow that he has a firm grasp of the basic principles which governstock market movements, and I do not believe any other man canduplicate the idea or his method at the present time."
"Earlythis year, he figured that the top of the advance would fall on acertain day in August and calculated the prices at which the Dow JonesAverages would then stand. The market culminated on the exact day andwithin four-tenths of one percent of the figures predicted."
"You and W D Gann must have cleaned up considerable money on all these operations," was suggested.
"Yes,we have made a great deal of money. Gann has taken half-million dollarsout of the market in the past few years. I once saw him take $130, andin less than one month run it up to over $12,000. Gann can compoundmoney faster than any man I have ever met."
"One of the mostastonishing calculations made by Mr. Gann was during last summer [1909]when he predicted that September Wheat would sell at $1.20. This meantthat it must touch that figure before the end of the month ofSeptember. At twelve o'clock, Chicago time, on September 30th (the lastday) the option was selling below $1.08, and it looked as though hisprediction would not be fulfilled. Mr. Gann said, 'If it does not touch$1.20 by the close of the market it will prove that there is somethingwrong with my whole method of calculation. I do not care what the priceis now, it must go there.' It is common history that September Wheatsurprised the whole country by selling at $1.20 and no higher in thevery last hour of trading, closing at that figure."
So muchfor what W D Gann has said and done as evidenced by himself &others. Now as to what demonstrations have taken place before ourrepresentative :
During the month of October, 1909, intwenty-five market days, W D Gann made, in the presence of ourrepresentative, two hundred and eighty-six transactions in variousstocks, on both the long and short side of the market. Two hundred andsixty-four of these transactions resulted in profits ; twenty-two inlosses.
The capital with which he operated was doubled tentimes, so that at the end of the month he had one thousand percent ofhis original margin.
In our presence Mr. William D. Gann sold Steel common short at 94-7/8, saying that it would not go to 95. It did not.
Ona drive which occurred during the week ending October 29, Mr. Gannbought U.S. Steel common stock at 86-1/4, saying that it would not goto 86. The lowest it sold was 86-1/3.
We have seen Gann givein one day sixteen successive orders in the same stock, eight of whichturned out to be at either the top or the bottom eighth of thatparticular swing. The above we can positively verify.
Such performances as these, coupled with the foregoing, are probably unparalleled in the history of the Street.
JamesR. Koene has said, "The man who is right six times out of ten will makea fortune." Gann is a trader who, without any attempt to make ashowing, for he did not know the results were to be published,established a record of over ninety-two percent profitable trades.
Mr.W. D. Gann has refused to disclose his method at any price, but tothose scientifically inclined he has unquestionably added to the stockof Wall Street knowledge and pointed out infinite possibilities.
Wehave requested Mr. Gann to figure out for the readers of the Ticker afew of the most striking indications which appear in his calculations.In presenting these we wish it understood that no man, in or out ofWall Street, is infallible.
William D Gann's figures at presentindicate that the trend of the stock market should, barring the usualrallies, be toward the lower prices until March or April 1910.
He calculates that May Wheat, which is now selling at $1.02, should not sell below 99¢, and should sell at $1.45 next spring.
OnCotton, which is now at about 15¢ level, he estimates that after a goodreaction from these prices the commodity should reach 18¢ in the springof 1910. He looks for a corner in the March or May option.
Whether these figures prove correct or not will in no way detract from the record which W. D. Gann has already established.
WilliamDelbert Gann was born in Lufkin, Texas, and is thirty-one years of age.He is a gifted mathematician, has an extraordinary memory for figures,and is an expert Tape Reader. Take away his science and he would beatthe market on his intuitive tape reading alone.
Endowed as heis with such qualities, we have no hesitation in predicting that,within a comparatively few years, William D. Gann will receiverecognition as one of Wall Street's leading operators.
Note:Since the above forecast was made, Cotton has suffered the expecteddecline, the extreme break having been 120 points. The lowest on Maywheat thus far has been $1.01 5/8. It is now selling at $1.06 1/4.
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