COMMODITY TRADING
WHEAT
The Gann method can be used for identifying price reversals in commodities to the extent that one understands the proper floating of the decimal for that particular commodity. The grains present no problems in comprehending the moving of the decimal on the Square of Nine.
The terminology is not meant to be explained and the method is not going to be handed to the reader. The examples are here to simply give one an idea of how the method works. The technique has nothing to do with any way I have ever seen the Square of Nine used, and I think I've seen all the books on the subject.
The chart below is December Wheat 2002. I selected it at random to see if the reversal on October 14, 2002 at 360 is indicated as a reversal with the Gann method. What I found were multiple indications of a reversal at 360 and the October 14th reversal date.
To begin with, there are several indications of the 14th being a Potential End Time (PET). I can use two time algorithms that link the Start Time and the Potential End Time. These Time algorithms are useful on the SP 500 and show up in this Wheat movement. The Start Time is September 9.
To find the Possible End Price, the first thing one does is go through the various Start Prices (SP) to see if a Class 1 or Class 2 algorithm is evident. The floating of the decimal of Start Price 440 means that the following numbers need to be examined as Start Prices: 40, 440, 1440, 140, 1140, 1040, 400, and 1400.
There are two Class 1 relationships using the Start Price to arrive at 360 exactly. There is one Class 4 that acts as a confirming indicator.
In addition, the Start Time of September 9, also indicates 360 exactly. There are two Class 1 relationships.
The next thing to do is look for an affirmation when price hits the support point of 360. The On Date algorithm also indicates 360 as a Class1 set-up. A Class 4 confirms the price.
In the above discussion, I have talked about how the Start Price (SP) and Start Time (ST) indicate a Potential End Price (PEP). The third algorithm, the On Date (OD), confirms the price target. Two Time algorithms point to the 14th as a Potential End Time.
There is another algorithm at work here that incorporates all of the above algorithms. It is called a MOD4. This one algorithm includes the SP, ST, PEP in a Class 1 set-up, and PET.
Viewing all the models together offers a strong case for a decent reversal at the 360 price level.
[ 本帖最后由 yefc88 于 2009-6-21 03:22 编辑 ] |
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发表于 2009-6-19 20:17:44
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发表于 2009-6-21 02:01:09
好贴，时间和价格藏有答案，简单好用，只是不知道是那种算法
