【阳光飞狐__与财富同行】

标题: stu:江恩波动法则的新发现 [打印本页]
作者: zcf    时间: 2009-12-26 15:56
标题: stu:江恩波动法则的新发现
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$ ~$ Q, R4 _$ D+ y; L7 P谁有James Smithson的书？在这篇文章里，他提到了角度线的关键用法，但不具体。
作者: koniqiwa    时间: 2009-12-26 17:13
下载来看看 谢谢长发兄" />  谢谢stu兄的翻译 6 e' }2 {7 W$ r) k4 t7 w
我没有这个人的书
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, h- u9 E- @& t0 X6 @; d( d[ 本帖最后由 koniqiwa 于 2009-12-26 17:15 编辑 ]
作者: virgen    时间: 2009-12-26 18:43
James Smithson的这本书给出了研究GANN思路和结构，像灯塔一样！
作者: axcqy    时间: 2009-12-26 19:06
作者: tts073    时间: 2009-12-26 19:36
作者: yay    时间: 2009-12-26 20:07
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作者: hecha    时间: 2009-12-26 20:43
thanks
作者: neilyoung    时间: 2009-12-26 20:47
标题: The Time Factor of W.D. Gann
其他文章：9 ]9 H& a+ k0 V9 e
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The Time Factor of W.D. Gann    By James Smithson     , q$ b* h6 H5 s3 s% X" u0 a2 I* z
江恩的时间因素    作者：詹姆斯。史密森! Q" z8 [3 ^/ V. N; U/ ]0 u

  R* i" t% D. F* B: Y+ nW. D. Gann’s outstanding skill was his ability to produce accurate annual forecasts of the stock and commodity markets. Gann stated that his forecasts were based on his secret “time factor”. However, careful analysis of his novel entitled “The Tunnel Thru The Air” reveals Gann’s belief in the overwhelming importance of astrology. Therefore astrology is the real basis of Gann’s annual forecasts. Indeed, astrological analysis is implicit at key points in his books and courses. Consequently it is concluded that if we wish to emulate Gann’s outstanding forecasting skills we must follow in his footsteps by firstly learning astrology and then apply this knowledge to the stock and commodity markets.( ], a5 E& }; i" Y% U
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江恩最突出的成绩就是他有能力在每年的期刊上正确的预测股票和期货。江恩的定期预测是建立在他自己的神秘的“时间因素”上的。但是，细心的研究者在他的名为“空中隧道”的小说中会发现，小说展示了江恩对占星术重要性的深刻信仰。因此占星术就是江恩定期性预测的真实基础。当然，占星分析在他的书籍和课程中只是一种暗示性的关键点。因此可以断言，假如你希望仿效江恩的突出的预测水平，就必须跟随他的脚步首先去学习占星术然后将这种知识应用于股票和期货市场。  x% l9 ^  a; t* Q3 C

. r5 k1 I% A) N/ u4 z$ ^2 OTHE “TIME FACTOR” IS THE KEY TO GANN’S FORECASTS
4 Y% X5 I+ E* X8 ~时间因素是江恩预测的核心  G. T& g" b. b3 T: [

( F6 J0 Q6 F- }8 c5 l0 w0 n. C6 {Gann’s forecasts of the stock and commodity markets were based on the “time factor” 。Gann provided the following comments on the time factor:
. U. s' [9 h/ c江恩关于股票和期货市场的预测是基于时间因素，江恩给出了下面这些时间因素的一些解释：& V) {" l% X% Y9 `; {

% ~0 x5 F9 w  D) t% j“The most important thing of all is the Time factor, which I use in making up my annual forecasts. It is not my object here to give away that secret, but I am showing you plain enough and giving you rules enough that, if you follow them, you will be able to make a success in the stock market” (“Truth Of The Stock Tape”, 1923, page 116).
# M# I* [4 S/ J; Z在所有事物中最重要的是时间因素，我用它来建立我每年的预测。这里我没有义务来展示所有的秘密。但是我会给你足够的证明和足够的法则方法，假如你跟随这些方法，你将能够在股票市场取得成功
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“Many people want to know what method I use to determine future indications on the market. I keep charts of the various active stocks and also a set of averages. My charts are different from the charts of the average statistician because they are based on a discovery of my own. I have discovered a ‘time’ factor that enables me to determine important tops and bottoms one year or more in advance. My annual forecasts on stocks, issued in December for ten years past, have proved remarkably correct. The cotton and grain markets can also be forecast by this ‘time’ factor, which enables me to tell when extreme highs and lows will be made, as well as the minor moves” (“Truth Of The Stock Tape”, 1923, page 41 of appendix).
' `! c% ^  j; Q9 G很多人都想知道我用什么样的方法来确定未来市场的走向。我使用多种现行的股票图表并也根据它们进行买卖交易。我的图表和一般的统计性图表不同，它使用了我自己发现的一些东西作为基础。我发现了一种时间因素以使我能够确定一年内甚至更长时间的重要顶部和底部。我每年一期的出版物在12月份已经满10年了，显然证明是成功的。棉花和谷物市场也同样可以用这种时间因素来进行预测，这种时间因素能够告诉我最终的高点和低点在那里，对次级波动也同样有效。
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“The time factor and time periods are most important in determining a change in trend because time can over balance price, and when the time is up the volume of sales will increase and force prices higher or lower” (“45 Years In Wall Street”, 1941, page 10).' V/ s( n/ _% s  u5 {1 a
时间因素和时间周期是确定趋势转变的最重要因素，因为时间可以超过价格的平衡，当时间到达成交量将增加并迫使价格走高或走低。1 J4 A1 T5 z& x5 _4 l$ m* `
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“Time is the most important factor of all and not until sufficient time has expired does any big move start up or down. The time factor will overbalance both space and volume. When time is up, space movement will start and large volume will begin, either up or down. At the end of any important movement - monthly, weekly or daily - Time must be allowed for accumulation or distribution or for buying and selling to be completed” (“How To Make Profits In Commodities”, 1951, page 56).
! z2 m1 O$ W7 O; {时间是最重要的因素，时间如果不到它的期限，比较大的上涨和下跌不会发生。时间因素将失去和空间以及成交量之间的平衡，当时间到达，空间的移动将开始，并开始产生巨大的成交量，不论上涨或下跌都一样。在重要的波动结束的时候，月，周，日，时间的力量将被聚集或散布使得买卖交易过程终结。
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  F0 v4 d7 i; d1 \3 h3 [( l# Q) A, vTherefore we learn from Gann that:
- S" f8 f% Y9 ~9 M- y1) The time factor is the most important element in forecasting markets; and therefore he used this time factor in producing his highly-accurate annual forecasts of the stock and commodity markets.
4 ?! x7 ^1 P  p/ V+ e+ D2) The time factor is so fundamental that it precedes (and therefore causes) changes in prices and changes in volume in the stock and commodity markets.
. X3 D- X) t5 T$ u, U3 q5 ?3) The time factor is a valuable secret, details of which he is unwilling to reveal. He is however prepared to teach trading rules which, when properly applied, produce profits in the stock and commodity markets.* h* l" u3 |9 h% ~" b7 ^# h9 L2 X$ @
这里我们从江恩那里学到如下这些：0 Q) z. T0 e& S3 A3 s; [9 T
1）时间因素是最重要的市场预测元素，因此他用这种方法在期货和股票市场都取得了极高的成功率。
; ^, ?# g  p* b1 e( L2）时间因素因为是基本因素所以它的改变超前于股票和期货市场中价格和成交量的改变。" P. t8 j) ]1 p% F" g" j. L
3）时间因素是个昂贵的秘密，他不愿意展现全部的详细资料，但他仍然愿意传授一些适当应用的交易法则。, |( i4 D& W$ H- t% ]. Y2 d. E
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GANN’S NOVEL ENTITLED “THE TUNNEL THRU THE AIR”
, F2 I4 k* k, m0 Q$ l) [$ e! y江恩所创作的小说标题为“空中隧道”2 p/ J2 ]+ f+ f% t2 ~  ?! b4 k( `
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Although Gann was unwilling to explicitly reveal his time factor in his books and courses on trading the stock and commodity markets, he was prepared to leave strong clues in his novel entitled “The Tunnel Thru The Air”, which he wrote in 1927.
$ B) i! g9 j3 `8 ]8 f; \尽管江恩不愿意在他有关股票和期货交易的书和课程里详细的解释他的时间因素，他还是在1927年写下的题为“空中隧道”的小说中留下了重要线索。
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* \5 p% v2 R$ f3 ~) NGann’s “valuable secret, clothed in veiled language” is that, as the Bible clearly states, astrology really works. This theme runs throughout the book and is highlighted in the following quotations:
1 U! c9 A5 ~! D6 L江恩的“隐藏在文字中的贵重的秘密”其实就是《圣经》和占星术。贯穿在这本书里比较突出的引用有：% b+ `3 n2 e6 p' f4 r! r1 ~

# m4 U) }0 ]# v) v“Robert was a great believer in Astrology because he had found this great science referred to so many times in the Holy Bible. He had made notes as he read the Bible at different times where it referred to Astrology or the signs in the heavens and was thoroughly convinced that the influence of the heavenly bodies govern our lives” (page 172).
4 K6 e& Y, @) C! V' ~. M罗博特深信占星术因为他在神圣的书《圣经》里找到了这种伟大的科学。他在和占星和天空的标记有关的《圣经》记述中学习和笔记，他确信天上的影响将足以支配我们的生活。
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“I believe in the stars, I believe in astrology, and I have figured out my destiny. The Bible makes it plain that the stars do rule” (page 66)., T! Z1 s9 d! J6 _5 ?: D' P/ @
我相信天体，我相信占星，我已经计算出我的命运。《圣经》对天体的控制影响这方面解释的非常清楚。# _! ^" h) D2 @! i2 u* m

/ \5 ]2 ^9 x* O* j; a" X“Through my study of the Bible, I have determined the major and minor time factors which repeat in the history of nations, men and markets” (page 70).1 ~% D& E( q' y* J" J2 ^1 a9 E0 O
通过我对《圣经》的学习，我已经确定了在国家，人类和市场的历史循环重现上的主要和次要的时间因素。
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: E" a5 F9 b8 U" n* K“I have studied the Bible very carefully because I believe it is the greatest scientific book ever written. The laws are plainly laid down how to make a success. There is a time and a season for everything and if a man does things according to the time, he will succeed” (page 204).8 s/ M" m& t6 M/ G
我非常仔细的学习《圣经》因为我相信它是译本伟大的科学之书。获得成功法则明显的放在那里。任何事情都有一个时间和季节因素，假如一个人依照一个时间去行动，他就会获得成功。  n" B* I6 r5 \6 m/ H  i
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“Robert had gone deeply into the Bible study in order to learn more about the great science of Astrology” (page 213).2 F: d( V8 p& D4 ?% K
罗博特努力的深入学习《圣经》以便学习更多的伟大的占星科学。
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“He read all the books he could get on astrology and began to understand why things had happened as they had” (page 215).
% d0 e9 Q- d, z8 |* J9 g; E他阅读所有他能找到的占星书籍并开始领悟到为什么事情总是重复发生。
作者: neilyoung    时间: 2009-12-26 20:53
原帖由 zcf 于 2009-12-26 15:56 发表 3 C, A+ o2 ]' h# W
87843* ^" ]3 @' p! ]9 x& g, Z
谁有James Smithson的书？在这篇文章里，他提到了角度线的关键用法，但不具体。
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" i3 q( U# z/ k4 ]江恩波动法则的新发现 英文版
作者: river.    时间: 2009-12-26 21:37
谢谢
作者: koniqiwa    时间: 2009-12-26 22:05
美国钢铁那段是不是有点问题 作者说角度线刻度用的0.095每分/天 而以前看过的资料里美国钢铁价格是以美元来记的。- a' o5 \, ~+ h9 {5 F3 m( G
“他（江恩先生）见我时，美国钢铁在50附近，然后说‘这只钢铁股将涨到58，但是不会达到59。从这里，它将下跌16-3/4点。’我们在58-3/8附近做空，止损设在59。它最高达到58-3/4。从这一点它跌至41-1/4，即17-1/2点”（《交易访谈》）。5 ?: L3 d" w* r' d* c2 I! m
上面那段话里价格的单位难道是美分？不应该啊。
1 V/ g1 m# A  L; P% L( A9 ^) i3 \还有美国钢铁这段里的另一个波动率：
; h- J: r/ W! S/ k因此，江恩预测，短期回调将持续到1909年2月23日，美国钢铁的波动率将在当天从长期波动率0.095美分/天跌至0.0396美分/天（（1/1.5）×（1.25/2）×0.095=0.0396）。   这个计算有点匪夷所思，基于什么原理呢？
( `) `1 ~: [4 v还有就是 文章中提到的各个波动率真的是江恩本人使用的吗 还是作者根据那个采访的文章而自己计算的“粉丝版波动率”？$ ]/ J( c; J% S- z; R. A7 q
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[ 本帖最后由 koniqiwa 于 2009-12-26 22:14 编辑 ]
作者: zcf    时间: 2009-12-27 07:11
应该是$。
3 B. Y4 x, m, q( [- J+ }还有一个问题：什么星象造成了涨跌？  y+ J  R& o) J. y
“从长期波动率0.095美分/天跌至0.0396美分/天（（1/1.5）×（1.25/2）×0.095=0.0396）”如何算？1907/10/23低点21-7/8到1908/11/14高点58-3/4，涨幅36.875，388天，时价比为0.095。1/1.5=2/3，1.25/2=5/8，这是二个角度线的比率。为何要用这二个比率？可能与某二个星有关。0.095x2/3x5/8=0.0396。0.0396x489天=41-1/4。1907/11/23到1909/2/23是489天。5 [- r5 ~* L; u( H: d
这些关键问题，作者没有讲，可能作者在其所写的书中或内部课程中阐述吧。谁知道，请讲讲。
作者: koniqiwa    时间: 2009-12-27 11:25
开始以为文章中的波动率是交易日上面的，就没有去计算。通过长发兄指点，才发现原来这个波动率是用在了自然日上面，小麦的也是一样。这样的话，在股票期货教程里的1美分/天、1美元/天，和此文章中的“波动率”似乎不是同一件事，波动率可能和某个行星的运动相关，或者和某个相位相关，把价格联系到行星或相位上，需要用自然日而不是交易日。
+ V3 h* \+ Q+ A$ P- t9 H# p仔细思考后 觉得教程里的角度线是种辅助工具 江恩真正的东西是占星 占星应用自然日。江恩年度预测更是对天文学应用的结果。要对股票的波动作出精确预测 肯定要从占星角度上去研究其历史 找出历史某些点之间的天文学联系 去精确预测未来。3 v6 r6 Y; f5 M. p
占星术 哎～费解
作者: 桃竹    时间: 2009-12-27 11:30
我觉得这些方法比较复杂，有更简单的．．．．．．
作者: zcf    时间: 2009-12-27 11:50
下面的黑体字很重要。! N9 t1 l0 s5 \5 N3 x0 s
THE TIME FACTOR OF W. D. GANN 6 j8 E5 J7 g6 K0 W
By James Smithson
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THE BACK COVER OF GANN’S NOVEL ENTITLED THE TUNNEL THRU THE AIR?6 D. X% |. a' j3 r) I
Gann’s valuable secret that astrology really works is not confined to the content and front cover of his book the Tunnel Thru The Air. Indeed, this valuable secret is also subtly revealed in the illustration on the back cover. 9 Q  A9 |2 _7 {; P3 l
The illustration on the back cover of the Tunnel Thru The Air shows two sets of interlocking squares stretching to the horizon. One set is shown in the sky and one set is shown on the earth. Also shown on the earth is a pyramid inscribed with the name of W. D. Gann. 2 f  {9 y$ L/ |# ^
In this illustration, the squares in the sky symbolise astrological squares (i.e. when the planets form an angle of 90 degrees with respect to each other). The squares on the earth symbolise the unfolding of price action in the stock and commodity markets, in the form of interlocking price squares. Here Gann is illustrating the age-old astrological saying is above, so below. However, Gann’s more specific symbolism is that the astrological squares in the heavens cause the price squares in the stock and commodity markets on earth. Gann made this point elsewhere when he stated, we use the square of odd and even numbers to get not only the proof of market movements, but the cause,(Stockmarket Course And Commodities Course). [90度相位或平方数经度？]
5 _- ~5 l+ ]1 ?* R: W2 RThe final point to note about this illustration is the position of the pyramid which bears Gann’s name. This is located between heaven and earth, and reflects Gann’s view that he was a seer destined to observe astrological squares in the heavens and to forecast their influence on price squares in the stock and commodity markets on earth.   T& J3 ~6 m. ^! ^  a1 q7 @+ N: [1 [
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作者: zcf    时间: 2009-12-28 10:29
标题: 空中隧道的封面
[attach]87912[/attach]
作者: 跳跳雨    时间: 2009-12-28 16:24
值得提倡的研学精神!
作者: 路天辛    时间: 2009-12-28 21:17
感谢提供和分享！！！！！！！！！！！！！
作者: 莲之心    时间: 2009-12-28 21:51
非常感谢
作者: ggxiao    时间: 2009-12-29 17:17
感谢提供
作者: skywater    时间: 2009-12-29 17:59
作者: 489km    时间: 2010-1-11 22:27
感谢提供和分享！！！！！！！！！！！！！
作者: pacollii    时间: 2010-1-23 09:15
xiexie!!!!!!
作者: zhouhonglei1203    时间: 2010-1-23 09:21
怎么下不了？
作者: xiaojing    时间: 2010-1-23 18:19
谢谢，俺是无书不下，
作者: 中华财王    时间: 2010-1-23 23:13
太复杂，太深奥，一般人理解不了
作者: kincash    时间: 2010-1-24 23:44
谢谢分享
作者: 东四十条    时间: 2010-1-25 10:39
谢谢zcf，stu又是一部经典的文章！！
作者: s970701    时间: 2010-1-25 11:22
作者: ghw6501    时间: 2010-1-25 15:12
谢谢长发兄,感谢stu
作者: baresi1977    时间: 2010-1-25 16:02
哪位可以提供英文版，想对照着看看。
作者: j91191    时间: 2010-1-29 17:15
snicker snicker snicker
作者: tttzzz    时间: 2010-1-29 17:28
支持...
作者: 股海浪儿    时间: 2010-1-30 12:19
谢谢楼主，又有新的东西看了，呵呵
作者: 小墨子    时间: 2010-3-22 12:25
谢谢zcf，stu又是一部经典的文章！！
作者: cnshlyh    时间: 2010-3-24 22:17
得到了个启发
作者: 跳跳雨    时间: 2010-3-24 22:50
Gann’s more specific symbolism is that the astrological squares in the heavens cause the price squares in the stock and commodity markets on earth. Gann made this point elsewhere when he stated, we use the square of odd and even numbers to get not only the proof of market movements, but the cause,(Stockmarket Course And Commodities Course).
作者: jaeyoung    时间: 2010-4-25 10:51
谢！一字足以！
作者: happy19683    时间: 2010-4-25 13:23
或许当江恩的秘密被完全破解并公之于众就是这种理论见光死的时候了I
作者: ycng    时间: 2010-4-25 14:06
封面告诉"原始激励","时间","价格"及"基本环境"等事
; H& ]1 k- q6 e3 T6 K! G% w& z封底也非告诉星象,因为这句"股票是活生生的电子、原子和分子"否决基本环境与星象的关系
作者: jqbudd    时间: 2010-10-18 15:58
谢谢分享   
作者: szzhuang001    时间: 2010-10-18 16:15
啥都有



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