【阳光飞狐__与财富同行】

标题: 江恩如是说（4）——年度预测 [打印本页]
作者: 甘恩    时间: 2009-5-2 22:48
标题: 江恩如是说（4）——年度预测
说明：! k) F& n9 }% z
1.首发。转载请注明出处——阳光飞狐/江恩理论；当然还有译者。谢谢！
4 ?8 Q& q6 `. k2 |7 X7 `2.译文乃初稿，未校稿，仅供参考！
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/ a2 h( a8 Q3 v2 J) L原文：: N6 A: A3 j) v6 K( W3 @  v% W
HOW TO MAKE UP ANNUAL FORECASTS
% B3 h5 H1 M; N  M& s
9 y2 w3 Q9 B. l9 GI  have  stated  before  that  the  future  is  but  a  repetition  of  the  past;  therefore,  to make  up  a ( t, i- D& L  R/ M& M4 C7 [
forecast of the future, you must refer to the previous cycles.
. c( T9 x7 P  V3 H; t$ \7 P
! S3 k1 Q) |4 y# gThe  previous  10-year  cycle  and  20-year  cycle  have  the  most  effect  in  the  future,  but  in
; T. o4 O$ w8 |8 L' e3 A" Ocompleting  a  forecast,  it  is  best  to  have  30-years  past  record  to  check  out,  as  important
% _8 z- Z" h6 r& e0 Rchanges occur at  the end of 30-year cycles.    In making up my 1935 Forecast on the general   i* [. g0 b2 ^2 y! Q) e
market, I checked the years 1905, 1915, and 1925.  For the 1929 forecast, I compared 1919 –+ y4 Y0 ~7 T: k1 K& V( J% i
10 years back, 1909 –  20 years back, 1899 –  30 years back, and 1869 –  60 years back,  the
' s5 v1 d! a/ b# _Great Cycle.
2 ~9 J  M9 U1 G4 K& z- i: _! Q( ~4 ~" @. s: ?
You should also watch 5, 7, 15, and 50-year periods to see  if  the market  is repeating one of
$ H& t7 s: W4 n! B5 Bthem closely.
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1 [9 j, y- a8 W0 B4 `4 nMASTER 20-YEAR FORECASTING CHART
  J) s6 k! A, P1 C4 K1831 –  1935+ a  h- g* V, R# j% O
In  order  to make  up  an  annual  forecast,  you must  refer  to my Master  20-year  Forecasting
6 [% S% o0 V( j. Z5 U; w( qChart and see how the cycles have worked out and repeated in the past.
! Z. W6 J5 v6 w" u( d' j- G0 q/ D9 c/ y* ~8 m8 E
And stated before, the 20-year cycle is the most important cycle for forecasting future market
6 [0 y$ \3 \6 [4 o$ amovements.    It  is  one-third  of  the  60  year  cycle  and  when  three  20-year  cycles  run  out,
+ D, W( S) @2 [; kimportant bull and bear campaigns terminate." G: w# y3 g% c8 n

; N2 b" H4 i6 g: \9 V$ q6 M2 vIn order  for you  to  see  and  study how  the cycles  repeat,  I have made of  a chart of 20-year
- D" ?1 [7 J7 ucycles, beginning with the year 1831.   To show all of the cycles from 1831 to date, we have + `  c% G& {: n- g/ u' J0 l9 B
carried through on this chart the monthly high and low on railroad and canal stocks from 1831
- J8 T' v- p; yto 1855.   Beginning with 1856 we have used  the W. D. Gann Averages on  railroad  stocks   S2 o# i% D$ E3 X7 N
until  the beginning of  the Dow-Jones Averages  in 1896.   After  that we have used  the Dow-
0 H# Q. l3 \$ Q/ ^+ P+ RJones Industrial Stock Averages.- i4 L6 f! n. Z, s

4 }1 A& |2 }6 H: X  mAfter the end of the 20-year cycle in 1860,
% G" ~; g7 c: a+ U9 Lthe next cycle begins at 1861 and runs to 1880,
6 m$ y6 p0 [1 h1 ]: J# e; Gthe next cycle begins at 1881 and runs to 1900,1 t0 r8 A. N, J  S5 u# f& N
the next cycle begins at 1901 and runs to 1920,
- B8 D3 x5 T7 x) \1 v5 B8 ]9 |* }the next cycle begins at 1921 and runs to 1940.
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By  placing  the monthly  high  and  low  prices  for  each  of  these  20-year  periods  above  each # h; }" M+ y1 O4 [4 m& p+ f
other, it is easy to see how the cycles repeat.  The year of the cycles are marked from "1" to
3 E2 g5 s2 |3 h- A5 I"20".   Study  the chart and note what happened  in  the 8th and 9th year of each cycle –   that
- [$ d* w3 z7 ?! |. s3 P: Y0 e. Cextreme high prices have always been reached.  For example:% h5 |" y1 I  K+ F5 F# p4 t

! A) P5 K2 }$ m0 ?" Y1929 FORECAST) w6 ?$ J: W/ o" E, P
According  to my discovery of  the 60-year  cycle,  I had  figured  that 1929 would  repeat  like   v9 d* g- F4 ^0 r: g: g# P: ~8 J
1869, 1909, and 1919.  Looking back 20 years, we find that top was reached in August, 1909,
5 X1 G) F2 r8 D! Q; _2 Fand 60 years before, top was reached in July, 1869.  If you will read my Annual Forecast for
( ~$ ^0 Y, |5 ^& L2 Z1929, you will see that I had figured the top must come not later than the end of August and ( X2 O% g+ O! }! U/ c2 c
stated that a "Black Friday" would come  in September.   Following strictly  the 1869  top, the & ?( N" T: I/ i2 M- x  K% R+ g
top would have come in July, 1929, and some stocks did make top at that time.  Following the ) {) q( }( ?. y
1909  top,  we  could  expect  top  in  August,  and  the  actual  high  of  the  averages  and many 3 M; I0 z& b3 G# O8 t
individual stocks was reached on September 3, 1929.   Going back  to 1919, we find  that  the
5 b8 u* j5 c5 T7 ]$ W% rAverages made first top in July and a big decline followed, but extreme high was made in the * x5 U7 K) h& g; W/ E/ o& `
early part of November.
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From all of these tops –  1869, 1909, and 1919 –  sharp declines followed in the fall of the year, 5 ~( R" l* K2 q4 j
just as they did in 1929.  Therefore, you see how easy it was to follow this great advance and
+ D4 g$ O- P* F% x+ ddetermine when it would culminate.   There is no other way, outside of using  the 20 and 60-
, @) s+ l1 E7 n, O7 byear cycle that we could have forecast this great bull campaign and its culmination so closely 3 Z3 z7 t( O% P: N! @* J- \2 H7 O
in 1929./ B" U. v# D- T5 f" t) C$ ?' X

: j2 c' Q1 U: M% v1869-73 VS. 1929-33& h) s, y8 W0 T( v' i0 \5 Z) h
After the 1869 top, stocks continued to decline and reached low in November, 1873.  See how & ^, }' H* _0 `" O) b) B$ ^
many other bottoms were reached around this time in other cycles.  After the big decline from ' t/ }& z8 T+ g' O  w  a+ X
1929, notice that in October, 1933, the last low was reached on the Dow-Jones averages; then , }- p% X+ `8 \6 w3 L, G
followed an advance to new high levels, crossing the top of July, 1933.6 B8 C8 H) o) [
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1935 FORECAST2 W# G) ~6 R- M
Figuring out the Forecast for 1935, we see on this 20-year Chart that we are running against
* d* d- ]1 \6 x. N) w1855, 1875, 1895, 1915.   Therefore, we  look  to see what happened  in those years.   We find' D6 [9 j$ R! R; [" V
that in 1895, the high was reached in September, in 1915, the high of the year was reached in 9 \& R: u5 S, w8 Z1 i0 J
December.
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! i" W% C% c( A3 J5 iThen,  look  back  at  1865,  1885,  1905,  and  1925,  the  years  in  the  5th  zone  or  the  10-year
3 L1 D+ o0 [4 Fcycles. We  find  that  in  1865  the  high  was  reached  in  October;  in  1905  the  high  was  in
+ T! @$ ]9 f0 [/ ], Q  T+ BOctober: in 1925 the high was in November.$ t! \0 |' u# G, n) }8 {. w

1 ^2 Z! e5 b! r8 OThen, we would have a good guide in making out the Forecast for 1935, and we would know
" ^% h$ \8 m$ l& G. ]) cwhat months  to watch  for  top and a change  in  trend.   My Annual Forecast  for 1935, which
- {6 {/ c- D) w% g( H. ?" D# b7 Nwas  made  up  in  October,  1934,  indicated  top  for  October  28  and  a  secondary  top  for
: l0 h9 `+ k9 u4 @November 15-16, 1935.; N6 H+ J9 Z' C3 i2 a

  F: M" H3 i( {" t9 c3 x4 ]There are other ways of using this Chart to advantage.  One method of determining the trend . r" s3 H* s3 D* m! w
is  to compare  the years of previous  cycles  in  the  same  zone.   For  example: after  the Dow-# o1 ]8 m- Q4 O: H" B: \0 y# [; s
Jones 30  Industrial Averages  crossed 108  in May, 1935,  they were  above  the  average high
! x$ `6 B4 M; W. Hprice of all  the previous years in the 15th-year zone.   Therefore, the market indicated higher
' i$ o3 a! H6 I  |( r8 A% o; cprices and showed that there would be a bull campaign.0 B! d, r. b6 S7 L0 O' ~; d

% X3 G4 R% n0 B: T  Q% K) [% J; o1936 FORECAST+ o& {1 k2 ^+ W4 W' F" N6 W
If we wish  to make up a  forecast  for  the year 1936, we compare  the years  in  the 16th year
, p0 k( J3 ?$ L6 [3 u' ]* Hzone, viz. 1856, 1876, 1896, and 1916.  As 60 years back is a very important cycle, we look at
& y$ n/ w- z" ?( Q* Y8 s1876 first, then 1896, and 1916.
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, }7 t' e! o) B6 @( C2 N, |8 W1876 - We find that the averages run up and reach high in March; then decline to the end of
1 _# M  V; M' ~4 R6 ?' O0 W# R. Vthe year.
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2 v$ p& b$ R% C% p  y  C( P1896 - Next,  we  look  at  1896,  which  is  40  years  back,  or  two  20-year  cycles,  a  very - V5 b+ c* d* K
important presidential election year, just as 1936 will be.   We find that there was a
8 z% J. E) S8 A' N! Wmoderate  rally  into February, a decline  to March,  then a  small  rally  to May,  from
- M2 |& F# V! `; G, b& v: H% l% Vwhich a panicky decline followed, culminating on August 8, 1896, with the averages / B2 _$ ~3 ?! _0 O
at  the  lowest  levels  in years.   From  that point, a bull campaign started, with prices
/ T9 f6 V- E2 ~; I( |3 v3 R  r6 ^working higher to December.- |- i) h& N' C5 Y

( |9 F- e. y: c( I5 I1916 - The next important cycle is 20 years later, or 1916.  We find that prices declined in . O! S2 ~5 p$ r+ a4 z# n& H
January,  rallied moderately  in  February,  then  declined  sharply  to April,  rallied  to 7 u$ L  z& X- L) i$ P, K
June,  then  declined  and  made  bottom  in  July,  from  which  a  big  bull  campaign 4 a0 p' k) e5 h! _& o4 @
started,  making  top  in  November,  1916,  in  a  war  market.    A  panicky  decline
6 t: J( P9 p5 q" n& B9 }( Nfollowed from the latter part of November into December.
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This completes our comparison of  the 60, 40, and 20-year cycles back from 1936. Next, we
5 R% {& k6 l" U- e# i: K* olook at the cycles on the other side of the Chart, in the 6th year of the 20-year cycle, or the 6th
! Q- \. m/ J( M. F5 t& V5 szone, of the 10-year cycles.  These years are 1866, 1886, 1906, and 1926., F/ F  R5 ]* ~$ v8 ^& Q' U3 c9 ?

/ U! a9 {; N# s, d/ e5 m1866 - We find  that  in 1866  there was a sharp decline,  reaching bottom  in February;  then # a1 v4 @- y8 k8 B. H( x, Z
an advance, with top of the year in October.
7 T5 v* c9 y4 b0 B2 C: j) d& e1886 - We find a sharp decline and bottom in January, a moderate rally into March, then a 2 b  d# g* Z! R
sharp decline to new lows in May; a sharp advance, reaching high in November, and ( Y" Y. A9 L' ?
a sharp decline in December.2 s, c3 [7 p* x' }$ R
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1906 - The  next  important  cycle  to  consider  is  1906.    In  that  year,  the  great McKinley ( f2 i0 _' ~1 R$ e
boom, which began in 1896, culminated.  The railroad averages reached the highest 2 a# s1 O9 O* z1 m. g8 K2 I' |
price in history up to that time.  From the high of January, a sharp decline followed
0 y3 |: S. o6 |  X/ tto May.   Much of  this selling was caused by  the San Francisco earthquake.   Then,
! P7 ^5 Z/ Y+ A- Xthere was  a  rally  into  June,  followed  by  a  sharp  decline  to  low  in  July, with  the
( G0 p& O) v' N7 ~bottom  just  slightly  higher  than  the  low  of May.    From  this  low  there  was  an $ U4 g* J& u4 Z+ q8 J2 w" ~
advance  to  September,  when  another  top  was  made,  but  lower  than  the  top  in ! ]3 Q) R! v4 P, x( p" Y
January; then followed a decline into December and a panic followed in 1907.: x/ i7 A, M% o7 A' Y
4 |' L2 y4 W- M, D
1926 - The next important 10-year cycle to consider is 1926, when the great Coolidge bull $ U. }4 K( p( b/ O
campaign  was  underway.    From  the  low  in  December,  1925,  stocks  rallied  to
+ }  t' R# A7 X" _: bFebruary, 1926; then had a sharp decline into March, some stocks breaking as much 0 t5 [6 C/ R& L, n7 A6 z, n
as  100  points.    From  this  bottom  there was  a  sharp  advance  to  new  high  levels, 8 R$ j( K8 [" M' `: N, @
reaching  top  in  August;  then  another  sharp  decline  to  bottom  in  October,  from 9 F% Z* o- U6 t0 g# |1 k2 o- @
which a rally followed to December, but stocks did not get back to the high reached
8 T5 }6 S& s1 z& Z$ ?/ q3 |in August that year.3 P# ~: Q; X" a! N& ^/ _3 a+ `
: E" I0 ]1 z# c) g
Now, when I get ready to make up my Forecast for 1936, I will consider all of the cycles.  I
9 W" f6 T4 c! r/ w6 V! [& Q) X7 V0 Uwill go back and also check the 7-year cycles, the 14-year and 15-year cycles, which is half of
/ c2 p8 o$ Z( @3 ]- z+ X* Rthe  30-year  cycle.    But,  at  this  writing,  with my  knowledge  and  experience  of  the  future 9 p' Y7 t# M6 [0 x  L
cycles, I expect the 1896 cycle to repeat in 1936.3 |8 R5 N  y3 d; d) K
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1936 is likely to be a very uncertain election year just as it was in 1896, when the Bryan silver
: g7 k+ Q( K" K/ `) W9 |4 Y$ sscare caused a panicky decline  into August.   There  is a possibility of a  three-cornered fight, # N9 |* E% ^* q1 X- r
with two Democratic presidential candidates and one Republican.  There certainly is going to 5 f  v1 S6 C- P
be a time during 1936 when the investors are going to get scared and speculators are going to
( j) k% p% C: E2 H8 j0 wget scared and sell stocks, causing sharp declines.$ P7 |% [: E) U2 S

* t4 o5 b- I7 a" |& N# O; E, v! `My opinion, at this writing, is that the first decline will start in the month of January and wind ( ^' X; Q+ Q/ c. ?1 Y# |( X
up with a  sharp decline.   February –   the market may drift along  in a narrow,  trading  range 7 _& q" e$ [2 Z6 M
with some rallies, but there will be another decline in the month of March, just as there was in
3 W- V+ k5 l8 |) y1926.    I  am  confident  that  there  will  be  another  break  in  the  months  of May  and  June, " P- P! \1 l7 m0 t6 b
especially in the latter half of May, as this will be running out four years from the 1932 low 3 o& A, L0 }1 n) Z$ k2 _
and 6 years from April, 1930 high, all of which are indications of important changes in trend.
9 X" H8 G% A9 N/ o1 J9 L7 i% @$ f; A' j5 x
We know  that presidential nominations will  take place  in  July,  therefore  this  is  a month  to & ]6 i+ ~6 R+ }) Y3 [/ q
watch for uncertainties and declines, unless sharp declines have come before that  time.   The ' I2 t, M" Q9 U+ Z& S
ending of the cycle from 1896 in August is quite important and regardless of how high or how
- B( K- T' ?/ a- Clow stocks are, there are likely to be some sharp declines before the end of August.  Again, in
- J$ \7 v( k' y' j8 N  lthe last half of September, uncertain conditions and possibility of sharp declines are indicated.  & w' ^& E2 q* N$ w5 X
This may mark the last low and an election rally may start if there are indications of a change
* D- `9 B, I1 o- f6 w! g; Din Administration by the election of a Republican president, which, I believe, at this writing,
& }/ e) H" m' W5 V* K$ ewill happen.
3 w  J; [$ z0 D9 ^7 z9 E) _1 R1 D# w2 f( ?8 t
September, October, and November are all important because these months are 7 years from 3 N% I4 t9 y) }/ }5 N7 X
the top in September, 1929 and 7 years from the panicky decline in October and November, / X* u; m) z/ I
1929.   I would expect a rally to  take place after  the election in November, which would last
9 a" y' l9 f3 R& J( l* d0 Zanyway until the early part of December.  If conditions show signs of improvement and if the 1 @! P. y7 t& D
people  are  satisfied  with  the  man  elected,  then  the  advance  will  probably  continue  into 1 F$ l  y0 e& F
December, with high prices around the end of the year.9 r( A" H6 B6 n0 G: v3 f
/ K6 ^% H& {: k% x
This  is merely a general outline  that  I am giving without completing all of my calculations 7 s* ?$ L. h0 Q* T" q) i
and making up the Annual Forecast in detail.- C! r9 |/ j9 G& @* |; y
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, V3 W( M% X" c! R译文：
作者: 甘恩    时间: 2009-5-2 22:52
桃兄真是快枪手！
: T6 s: T# k* q0 q---------------------------------
) F) p0 |% i+ p- ]2 \) ?# |5 ~1 L% B( ]
[ 本帖最后由 甘恩 于 2009-5-2 22:53 编辑 ]
作者: 天蓝蓝    时间: 2009-5-2 22:55
你这是第几章第几节？请标上！
作者: 甘恩    时间: 2009-5-2 22:58
原帖由 天蓝蓝 于 2009-5-2 22:55 发表
9 d% D3 d: s% _% \; x你这是第几章第几节？请标上！
: y( ?. {& n0 b* ?
勤勤手吧——用一下PDF的搜索功能！！
作者: anyway    时间: 2009-5-2 22:59
     感谢
作者: mcwhmm    时间: 2009-5-2 23:08
谢谢
作者: jqbudd    时间: 2009-5-3 00:10
谢谢，
作者: 东四十条    时间: 2009-5-3 08:43
谢谢！！支持甘恩兄的帖子！！
作者: jsyly    时间: 2009-5-3 08:57
谢谢甘恩兄# F( |2 d) U* J- w& j' C
作者: new79man    时间: 2009-5-3 09:53
支持楼主发贴。。
作者: yay    时间: 2009-5-3 10:21
原帖由 甘恩 于 2009-5-2 14:48 发表
, I9 H' C+ E$ ]5 b7 c说明：
/ b4 W4 T6 `5 f  Y, J8 h: ~9 i1.首发。转载请注明出处——阳光飞狐/江恩理论；当然还有译者。谢谢！, W# J4 K" H/ J
2.译文乃初稿，未校稿，仅供参考！
" _: P7 `* C9 w" a  p------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...
多读几遍江恩描述的! 或许就是大家天天都在做的事!
% X1 x9 E, y% `不要再搞的过于神秘!; q% L7 A, _9 u: `
* W& h+ V) }- P% p7 C! A# h% A
[ 本帖最后由 yay 于 2009-5-3 02:25 编辑 ]
作者: wushilu    时间: 2009-5-3 10:34
谢谢.
! x7 l8 p% B4 `; d* d) ^9 [5 F谢谢. $ ^( [7 t' E2 v: n% a' c+ y+ Y; h3 b
谢谢.
作者: sijiawei2008    时间: 2009-5-3 11:18
支持楼主发贴。。
作者: xinju    时间: 2009-5-3 12:57
中央红军1934年10月16日离开瑞金开始了长征之路
* _$ F' y2 M5 }5 I6 m- }, h8 x历史上的 * \2 X1 H& ~: p1 f8 x
* ~5 X% |# [- P9 W
如果再结合星相，自然如虎添翼，不用这样麻烦~~~
作者: 非常理由    时间: 2009-5-3 14:29
谢谢
作者: 小笨牛    时间: 2009-5-3 20:46
要学的东西太多，谢谢提供
作者: axcqy    时间: 2009-5-3 21:43
谢谢提供
作者: 上下    时间: 2009-5-4 02:47
奇文共赏
作者: shdw    时间: 2009-5-4 07:21
谢谢甘恩兄' H& c1 K% a' y1 a
作者: 股为金用    时间: 2009-5-4 08:17
支持楼主发帖，新手好好学习。
作者: zb0510    时间: 2009-5-4 09:09
作者: 84308    时间: 2009-5-4 10:01
好好看看
作者: 老树    时间: 2009-5-4 10:05
谢谢甘恩兄
作者: jqbudd    时间: 2009-5-4 11:46
谢谢分享
作者: Panther    时间: 2009-5-4 11:55
以前没有读到过， 谢谢。6 P  ]6 O9 M. \* I6 a9 p
老江真牛，这才是预测。" Y2 I' x8 z  K* m4 N% }9 y
学习。
作者: 姜恩棠    时间: 2009-5-4 12:56
标题: 难道不应该配上这附图？？？
江恩百年预测图
  o( p8 z+ @% y
作者: neilyoung    时间: 2009-5-4 13:11
带彩的。。。
作者: 时价量形    时间: 2009-5-4 15:15
谢谢分享
作者: stevenluo1688    时间: 2009-5-16 07:52
谢谢分享



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