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标题: 江恩如是说（4）——年度预测 [打印本页]

作者: 甘恩 时间: 2009-5-2 22:48
标题: 江恩如是说（4）——年度预测
说明：
1.首发。转载请注明出处——阳光飞狐/江恩理论；当然还有译者。谢谢！
2.译文乃初稿，未校稿，仅供参考！
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原文：
HOW TO MAKE UP ANNUAL FORECASTS

I  have  stated  before  that  the  future  is  but  a  repetition  of  the  past;  therefore,  to make  up  a
forecast of the future, you must refer to the previous cycles.

The  previous  10-year  cycle  and  20-year  cycle  have  the  most  effect  in  the  future,  but  in
completing  a  forecast,  it  is  best  to  have  30-years  past  record  to  check  out,  as  important
changes occur at  the end of 30-year cycles. In making up my 1935 Forecast on the general
market, I checked the years 1905, 1915, and 1925.  For the 1929 forecast, I compared 1919 –
10 years back, 1909 –  20 years back, 1899 –  30 years back, and 1869 –  60 years back,  the
Great Cycle.

You should also watch 5, 7, 15, and 50-year periods to see  if  the market  is repeating one of
them closely.

MASTER 20-YEAR FORECASTING CHART
1831 –  1935
In  order  to make  up  an  annual  forecast,  you must  refer  to my Master  20-year  Forecasting
Chart and see how the cycles have worked out and repeated in the past.

And stated before, the 20-year cycle is the most important cycle for forecasting future market
movements. It  is  one-third  of  the  60  year  cycle  and  when  three  20-year  cycles  run  out,
important bull and bear campaigns terminate.

In order  for you  to  see  and  study how  the cycles  repeat,  I have made of  a chart of 20-year
cycles, beginning with the year 1831. To show all of the cycles from 1831 to date, we have
carried through on this chart the monthly high and low on railroad and canal stocks from 1831
to 1855. Beginning with 1856 we have used  the W. D. Gann Averages on  railroad  stocks
until  the beginning of  the Dow-Jones Averages  in 1896. After  that we have used  the Dow-
Jones Industrial Stock Averages.

After the end of the 20-year cycle in 1860,
the next cycle begins at 1861 and runs to 1880,
the next cycle begins at 1881 and runs to 1900,
the next cycle begins at 1901 and runs to 1920,
the next cycle begins at 1921 and runs to 1940.

By  placing  the monthly  high  and  low  prices  for  each  of  these  20-year  periods  above  each
other, it is easy to see how the cycles repeat.  The year of the cycles are marked from "1" to
"20". Study  the chart and note what happened  in  the 8th and 9th year of each cycle – that
extreme high prices have always been reached.  For example:

1929 FORECAST
According  to my discovery of  the 60-year  cycle,  I had  figured  that 1929 would  repeat  like
1869, 1909, and 1919.  Looking back 20 years, we find that top was reached in August, 1909,
and 60 years before, top was reached in July, 1869.  If you will read my Annual Forecast for
1929, you will see that I had figured the top must come not later than the end of August and
stated that a "Black Friday" would come  in September. Following strictly  the 1869  top, the
top would have come in July, 1929, and some stocks did make top at that time.  Following the
1909  top,  we  could  expect  top  in  August,  and  the  actual  high  of  the  averages  and many
individual stocks was reached on September 3, 1929. Going back  to 1919, we find  that  the
Averages made first top in July and a big decline followed, but extreme high was made in the
early part of November.

From all of these tops –  1869, 1909, and 1919 –  sharp declines followed in the fall of the year,
just as they did in 1929.  Therefore, you see how easy it was to follow this great advance and
determine when it would culminate. There is no other way, outside of using  the 20 and 60-
year cycle that we could have forecast this great bull campaign and its culmination so closely
in 1929.

1869-73 VS. 1929-33
After the 1869 top, stocks continued to decline and reached low in November, 1873.  See how
many other bottoms were reached around this time in other cycles.  After the big decline from
1929, notice that in October, 1933, the last low was reached on the Dow-Jones averages; then
followed an advance to new high levels, crossing the top of July, 1933.

1935 FORECAST
Figuring out the Forecast for 1935, we see on this 20-year Chart that we are running against
1855, 1875, 1895, 1915. Therefore, we  look  to see what happened  in those years. We find
that in 1895, the high was reached in September, in 1915, the high of the year was reached in
December.

Then,  look  back  at  1865,  1885,  1905,  and  1925,  the  years  in  the  5th  zone  or  the  10-year
cycles. We  find  that  in  1865  the  high  was  reached  in  October;  in  1905  the  high  was  in
October: in 1925 the high was in November.

Then, we would have a good guide in making out the Forecast for 1935, and we would know
what months  to watch  for  top and a change  in  trend. My Annual Forecast  for 1935, which
was  made  up  in  October,  1934,  indicated  top  for  October  28  and  a  secondary  top  for
November 15-16, 1935.

There are other ways of using this Chart to advantage.  One method of determining the trend
is  to compare  the years of previous  cycles  in  the  same  zone. For  example: after  the Dow-
Jones 30  Industrial Averages  crossed 108  in May, 1935,  they were  above  the  average high
price of all  the previous years in the 15th-year zone. Therefore, the market indicated higher
prices and showed that there would be a bull campaign.

1936 FORECAST
If we wish  to make up a  forecast  for  the year 1936, we compare  the years  in  the 16th year
zone, viz. 1856, 1876, 1896, and 1916.  As 60 years back is a very important cycle, we look at
1876 first, then 1896, and 1916.

1876 - We find that the averages run up and reach high in March; then decline to the end of
the year.

1896 - Next,  we  look  at  1896,  which  is  40  years  back,  or  two  20-year  cycles,  a  very
important presidential election year, just as 1936 will be. We find that there was a
moderate  rally  into February, a decline  to March,  then a  small  rally  to May,  from
which a panicky decline followed, culminating on August 8, 1896, with the averages
at  the  lowest  levels  in years. From  that point, a bull campaign started, with prices
working higher to December.

1916 - The next important cycle is 20 years later, or 1916.  We find that prices declined in
January,  rallied moderately  in  February,  then  declined  sharply  to April,  rallied  to
June,  then  declined  and  made  bottom  in  July,  from  which  a  big  bull  campaign
started,  making  top  in  November,  1916,  in  a  war  market. A  panicky  decline
followed from the latter part of November into December.

This completes our comparison of  the 60, 40, and 20-year cycles back from 1936. Next, we
look at the cycles on the other side of the Chart, in the 6th year of the 20-year cycle, or the 6th
zone, of the 10-year cycles.  These years are 1866, 1886, 1906, and 1926.

1866 - We find  that  in 1866  there was a sharp decline,  reaching bottom  in February;  then
an advance, with top of the year in October.
1886 - We find a sharp decline and bottom in January, a moderate rally into March, then a
sharp decline to new lows in May; a sharp advance, reaching high in November, and
a sharp decline in December.

1906 - The  next  important  cycle  to  consider  is  1906. In  that  year,  the  great McKinley
boom, which began in 1896, culminated.  The railroad averages reached the highest
price in history up to that time.  From the high of January, a sharp decline followed
to May. Much of  this selling was caused by  the San Francisco earthquake. Then,
there was  a  rally  into  June,  followed  by  a  sharp  decline  to  low  in  July, with  the
bottom  just  slightly  higher  than  the  low  of May. From  this  low  there  was  an
advance  to  September,  when  another  top  was  made,  but  lower  than  the  top  in
January; then followed a decline into December and a panic followed in 1907.

1926 - The next important 10-year cycle to consider is 1926, when the great Coolidge bull
campaign  was  underway. From  the  low  in  December,  1925,  stocks  rallied  to
February, 1926; then had a sharp decline into March, some stocks breaking as much
as  100  points. From  this  bottom  there was  a  sharp  advance  to  new  high  levels,
reaching  top  in  August;  then  another  sharp  decline  to  bottom  in  October,  from
which a rally followed to December, but stocks did not get back to the high reached
in August that year.

Now, when I get ready to make up my Forecast for 1936, I will consider all of the cycles.  I
will go back and also check the 7-year cycles, the 14-year and 15-year cycles, which is half of
the  30-year  cycle. But,  at  this  writing,  with my  knowledge  and  experience  of  the  future
cycles, I expect the 1896 cycle to repeat in 1936.

1936 is likely to be a very uncertain election year just as it was in 1896, when the Bryan silver
scare caused a panicky decline  into August. There  is a possibility of a  three-cornered fight,
with two Democratic presidential candidates and one Republican.  There certainly is going to
be a time during 1936 when the investors are going to get scared and speculators are going to
get scared and sell stocks, causing sharp declines.

My opinion, at this writing, is that the first decline will start in the month of January and wind
up with a  sharp decline. February – the market may drift along  in a narrow,  trading  range
with some rallies, but there will be another decline in the month of March, just as there was in
1926. I  am  confident  that  there  will  be  another  break  in  the  months  of May  and  June,
especially in the latter half of May, as this will be running out four years from the 1932 low
and 6 years from April, 1930 high, all of which are indications of important changes in trend.

We know  that presidential nominations will  take place  in  July,  therefore  this  is  a month  to
watch for uncertainties and declines, unless sharp declines have come before that  time. The
ending of the cycle from 1896 in August is quite important and regardless of how high or how
low stocks are, there are likely to be some sharp declines before the end of August.  Again, in
the last half of September, uncertain conditions and possibility of sharp declines are indicated.
This may mark the last low and an election rally may start if there are indications of a change
in Administration by the election of a Republican president, which, I believe, at this writing,
will happen.

September, October, and November are all important because these months are 7 years from
the top in September, 1929 and 7 years from the panicky decline in October and November,
1929. I would expect a rally to  take place after  the election in November, which would last
anyway until the early part of December.  If conditions show signs of improvement and if the
people  are  satisfied  with  the  man  elected,  then  the  advance  will  probably  continue  into
December, with high prices around the end of the year.

This  is merely a general outline  that  I am giving without completing all of my calculations
and making up the Annual Forecast in detail.
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译文：

作者: 甘恩 时间: 2009-5-2 22:52
桃兄真是快枪手！

---------------------------------

[ 本帖最后由甘恩于 2009-5-2 22:53 编辑 ]

作者: 天蓝蓝 时间: 2009-5-2 22:55
你这是第几章第几节？请标上！

作者: 甘恩 时间: 2009-5-2 22:58

原帖由 天蓝蓝 于 2009-5-2 22:55 发表
你这是第几章第几节？请标上！

勤勤手吧——用一下PDF的搜索功能！！

作者: anyway 时间: 2009-5-2 22:59

感谢

作者: mcwhmm 时间: 2009-5-2 23:08
谢谢

作者: jqbudd 时间: 2009-5-3 00:10
谢谢，

作者: 东四十条 时间: 2009-5-3 08:43
谢谢！！支持甘恩兄的帖子！！

作者: jsyly 时间: 2009-5-3 08:57
谢谢甘恩兄

作者: new79man 时间: 2009-5-3 09:53
支持楼主发贴。。

作者: yay 时间: 2009-5-3 10:21

原帖由甘恩于 2009-5-2 14:48 发表
说明：
1.首发。转载请注明出处——阳光飞狐/江恩理论；当然还有译者。谢谢！
2.译文乃初稿，未校稿，仅供参考！
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

多读几遍江恩描述的! 或许就是大家天天都在做的事!
不要再搞的过于神秘!

[ 本帖最后由 yay 于 2009-5-3 02:25 编辑 ]

作者: wushilu 时间: 2009-5-3 10:34
谢谢.

谢谢.

作者: sijiawei2008 时间: 2009-5-3 11:18
支持楼主发贴。。

作者: xinju 时间: 2009-5-3 12:57
中央红军1934年10月16日离开瑞金开始了长征之路
历史上的

如果再结合星相，自然如虎添翼，不用这样麻烦~~~

作者: 非常理由 时间: 2009-5-3 14:29

谢谢

作者: 小笨牛 时间: 2009-5-3 20:46
要学的东西太多，谢谢提供

作者: axcqy 时间: 2009-5-3 21:43
谢谢提供

作者: 上下 时间: 2009-5-4 02:47
奇文共赏

作者: shdw 时间: 2009-5-4 07:21
谢谢甘恩兄

作者: 股为金用 时间: 2009-5-4 08:17
支持楼主发帖，新手好好学习。

作者: zb0510 时间: 2009-5-4 09:09

作者: 84308 时间: 2009-5-4 10:01

好好看看

作者: 老树 时间: 2009-5-4 10:05
谢谢甘恩兄

作者: jqbudd 时间: 2009-5-4 11:46
谢谢分享

作者: Panther 时间: 2009-5-4 11:55
以前没有读到过，谢谢。
老江真牛，这才是预测。
学习。

作者: 姜恩棠 时间: 2009-5-4 12:56
标题: 难道不应该配上这附图？？？
江恩百年预测图

作者: neilyoung 时间: 2009-5-4 13:11
带彩的。。。

作者: 时价量形 时间: 2009-5-4 15:15
谢谢分享

作者: stevenluo1688 时间: 2009-5-16 07:52

谢谢分享

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