【阳光飞狐__与财富同行】

标题: 江恩如是说（4）——年度预测 [打印本页]
作者: 甘恩    时间: 2009-5-2 22:48
标题: 江恩如是说（4）——年度预测
说明：
& q  r( b; P( [/ w8 U1.首发。转载请注明出处——阳光飞狐/江恩理论；当然还有译者。谢谢！* O5 s2 v/ J5 ]
2.译文乃初稿，未校稿，仅供参考！
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2 Y+ j& l( a' c; }原文：
2 j6 @5 s: n! U/ `2 QHOW TO MAKE UP ANNUAL FORECASTS
9 t' \& `' Q8 n: S# z* U4 H
) f2 V, ?8 C+ M" n2 ~, eI  have  stated  before  that  the  future  is  but  a  repetition  of  the  past;  therefore,  to make  up  a
, Z/ w  u' P. @  J% Tforecast of the future, you must refer to the previous cycles.9 L: G; g  n. E; J& r/ D" U

& A7 u+ z# Z/ J0 W$ [6 KThe  previous  10-year  cycle  and  20-year  cycle  have  the  most  effect  in  the  future,  but  in
" Z( G4 `2 R2 |9 A" j+ Lcompleting  a  forecast,  it  is  best  to  have  30-years  past  record  to  check  out,  as  important
6 U( J1 ~5 J$ {! p* u+ ?8 {changes occur at  the end of 30-year cycles.    In making up my 1935 Forecast on the general
! X+ t' P& I- G# r4 g  xmarket, I checked the years 1905, 1915, and 1925.  For the 1929 forecast, I compared 1919 –3 ~0 T: Y& J  h7 O# _
10 years back, 1909 –  20 years back, 1899 –  30 years back, and 1869 –  60 years back,  the
  J$ Z- g1 ?" `0 wGreat Cycle.
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You should also watch 5, 7, 15, and 50-year periods to see  if  the market  is repeating one of 5 N. R4 g! Y1 {* o" n) v& n' j
them closely.
; ~* ~, E0 b7 C( b* O& g* d! j/ a6 n# J/ S: z- ?# D+ c
MASTER 20-YEAR FORECASTING CHART& C! D3 z5 _) S  x2 m( t
1831 –  1935
" R. b" M- O2 d+ T' @. S7 vIn  order  to make  up  an  annual  forecast,  you must  refer  to my Master  20-year  Forecasting 7 v, o) ~; r# L2 P5 d
Chart and see how the cycles have worked out and repeated in the past.6 G" x/ j$ S3 a% Y* W& ?: ^) y

3 O% u& r; ]8 ?9 O. b9 a9 WAnd stated before, the 20-year cycle is the most important cycle for forecasting future market
. V' S* v  c* J7 fmovements.    It  is  one-third  of  the  60  year  cycle  and  when  three  20-year  cycles  run  out,
5 W5 T# L9 E+ C6 x; q. D6 ~. b- dimportant bull and bear campaigns terminate.
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2 a5 [# E6 M2 W3 j3 tIn order  for you  to  see  and  study how  the cycles  repeat,  I have made of  a chart of 20-year
: y3 I9 e* K  O1 p8 w& lcycles, beginning with the year 1831.   To show all of the cycles from 1831 to date, we have 9 [8 a5 F9 s. J1 a
carried through on this chart the monthly high and low on railroad and canal stocks from 1831
+ @  l8 Y7 _+ {, {% |" L& yto 1855.   Beginning with 1856 we have used  the W. D. Gann Averages on  railroad  stocks
0 m0 g6 m7 X( G$ G& euntil  the beginning of  the Dow-Jones Averages  in 1896.   After  that we have used  the Dow-4 N$ I( q  }! J
Jones Industrial Stock Averages.
# r9 x* C/ |4 p0 _4 u/ v+ w( _+ B. @1 w* ]3 P- z6 S
After the end of the 20-year cycle in 1860,# C- x1 L. d% l5 u6 V& j8 h) I
the next cycle begins at 1861 and runs to 1880," w% j5 n* c) E* S- X$ k. M
the next cycle begins at 1881 and runs to 1900,
' R3 C3 d  j/ i' V5 i+ y5 Gthe next cycle begins at 1901 and runs to 1920,6 H( O  t& E7 k! @1 G6 S
the next cycle begins at 1921 and runs to 1940.
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By  placing  the monthly  high  and  low  prices  for  each  of  these  20-year  periods  above  each # _, a5 t$ R9 W, T3 F- g
other, it is easy to see how the cycles repeat.  The year of the cycles are marked from "1" to % d) p7 t# L8 n
"20".   Study  the chart and note what happened  in  the 8th and 9th year of each cycle –   that
8 W% Z5 E0 h/ r$ E* D9 fextreme high prices have always been reached.  For example:
+ m* R( l- q! e) O7 y8 y$ m0 k# O; R: }5 S9 @- ^
1929 FORECAST
) o1 b( g  I! C- K+ {, R1 RAccording  to my discovery of  the 60-year  cycle,  I had  figured  that 1929 would  repeat  like
9 j  p: N- b8 m) _5 f  [1869, 1909, and 1919.  Looking back 20 years, we find that top was reached in August, 1909,
- P' B! L6 N  d+ G0 m# i1 }and 60 years before, top was reached in July, 1869.  If you will read my Annual Forecast for 4 q) c+ V8 \; B/ J
1929, you will see that I had figured the top must come not later than the end of August and 3 V6 H& b- Q! r$ G+ ?$ R0 ]( M
stated that a "Black Friday" would come  in September.   Following strictly  the 1869  top, the
, W8 Y4 z4 A: ^& C; v1 y( R. f' Otop would have come in July, 1929, and some stocks did make top at that time.  Following the
: [' M- ?! p# l* G7 K% |4 x1909  top,  we  could  expect  top  in  August,  and  the  actual  high  of  the  averages  and many   y4 R% D* x: i- W" P" s8 v6 \
individual stocks was reached on September 3, 1929.   Going back  to 1919, we find  that  the
7 b/ \$ R4 A$ N3 D4 k4 v/ B2 [Averages made first top in July and a big decline followed, but extreme high was made in the 1 ?0 v( [  ?0 S5 d' r
early part of November.
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From all of these tops –  1869, 1909, and 1919 –  sharp declines followed in the fall of the year,
( ?9 r* U/ x( h  ]just as they did in 1929.  Therefore, you see how easy it was to follow this great advance and
1 C. u) o/ u) D& Ndetermine when it would culminate.   There is no other way, outside of using  the 20 and 60-
" |% t7 `2 F5 o0 ]year cycle that we could have forecast this great bull campaign and its culmination so closely 0 k0 w' l/ E! i! h8 t: B" A
in 1929.
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1869-73 VS. 1929-33
* _4 Q$ ^5 e0 ^8 f' a' [6 G% vAfter the 1869 top, stocks continued to decline and reached low in November, 1873.  See how 6 d- x% t- L$ x8 o. R
many other bottoms were reached around this time in other cycles.  After the big decline from ; z4 l1 D! v1 I' O+ I+ v. K
1929, notice that in October, 1933, the last low was reached on the Dow-Jones averages; then # _/ j$ a5 Z9 k0 o8 J3 z% t( N
followed an advance to new high levels, crossing the top of July, 1933.8 k+ e; [+ o, @5 l' w
1 J6 s# d' r8 a$ s$ R. m: K$ K
1935 FORECAST' q4 f; k* i- S1 B& N
Figuring out the Forecast for 1935, we see on this 20-year Chart that we are running against
3 X8 t0 |  Z! U" v4 [; |1855, 1875, 1895, 1915.   Therefore, we  look  to see what happened  in those years.   We find
  H- r, ]: f% q; Y, @% _that in 1895, the high was reached in September, in 1915, the high of the year was reached in 9 q: S) O/ M! l: @1 t/ S0 h
December.
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2 i4 G9 X3 x) ^- V) jThen,  look  back  at  1865,  1885,  1905,  and  1925,  the  years  in  the  5th  zone  or  the  10-year . w1 w& w( U6 i
cycles. We  find  that  in  1865  the  high  was  reached  in  October;  in  1905  the  high  was  in 3 s" u& L, n6 Y- Q' z
October: in 1925 the high was in November., `% h' F! Z* H  o# l( H- P, t
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Then, we would have a good guide in making out the Forecast for 1935, and we would know
* e! n5 H) l0 S  Owhat months  to watch  for  top and a change  in  trend.   My Annual Forecast  for 1935, which
$ ^7 c' b; `3 Z/ B0 C$ iwas  made  up  in  October,  1934,  indicated  top  for  October  28  and  a  secondary  top  for
' v! O' D% }3 a4 @1 DNovember 15-16, 1935.) Y; ^7 [1 f; F# K
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There are other ways of using this Chart to advantage.  One method of determining the trend   _, n; e" j5 }# c' D2 f  S
is  to compare  the years of previous  cycles  in  the  same  zone.   For  example: after  the Dow-* E( z4 _. r; S7 u9 q
Jones 30  Industrial Averages  crossed 108  in May, 1935,  they were  above  the  average high ! ]: q# I( d# }* n) J
price of all  the previous years in the 15th-year zone.   Therefore, the market indicated higher
4 s+ V$ I! v+ J) Bprices and showed that there would be a bull campaign.
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1936 FORECAST
( n8 Y0 u4 q) S( {! ZIf we wish  to make up a  forecast  for  the year 1936, we compare  the years  in  the 16th year ' J/ S1 T; I' G0 \! C) R: ^
zone, viz. 1856, 1876, 1896, and 1916.  As 60 years back is a very important cycle, we look at 3 [- |! N% D$ N0 V  a. H3 b& o
1876 first, then 1896, and 1916.
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1876 - We find that the averages run up and reach high in March; then decline to the end of
6 v8 T0 u1 l4 R5 C+ rthe year., H0 [* y0 z5 ^1 ]6 a4 r
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1896 - Next,  we  look  at  1896,  which  is  40  years  back,  or  two  20-year  cycles,  a  very # I2 c1 C/ P3 Y5 R+ J8 Z
important presidential election year, just as 1936 will be.   We find that there was a
# h1 A3 n9 ^7 U9 f9 a6 @* v6 J0 H% Umoderate  rally  into February, a decline  to March,  then a  small  rally  to May,  from
$ k$ m5 ?) B4 g  e. x! \& gwhich a panicky decline followed, culminating on August 8, 1896, with the averages * t0 M% J4 _, ~1 B) C6 e" J: W
at  the  lowest  levels  in years.   From  that point, a bull campaign started, with prices
& H" n6 D% g3 M* w6 ^  dworking higher to December.4 I/ y6 k/ H& V% t" Y2 ?" D/ J5 z
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1916 - The next important cycle is 20 years later, or 1916.  We find that prices declined in
1 `% b% J- G" H1 kJanuary,  rallied moderately  in  February,  then  declined  sharply  to April,  rallied  to
& C0 H9 ~% T2 r5 [3 D8 a1 C3 P; CJune,  then  declined  and  made  bottom  in  July,  from  which  a  big  bull  campaign * i& F1 i3 y) @' M2 A  L* P  D
started,  making  top  in  November,  1916,  in  a  war  market.    A  panicky  decline ( l& M: H, y" W6 v) z$ ^
followed from the latter part of November into December.' t4 `# \* i, Q, c- j

: A, y4 f2 ~% sThis completes our comparison of  the 60, 40, and 20-year cycles back from 1936. Next, we
: O, V. ?, I5 Z% y8 a8 _4 wlook at the cycles on the other side of the Chart, in the 6th year of the 20-year cycle, or the 6th 7 U( F& u. ]3 O1 E  n+ b
zone, of the 10-year cycles.  These years are 1866, 1886, 1906, and 1926.
# {8 T( K! z/ T) a& y! N# L! E& u4 K5 d% I5 R
1866 - We find  that  in 1866  there was a sharp decline,  reaching bottom  in February;  then
: |; [9 i) w: X2 Kan advance, with top of the year in October.
8 L9 t  p4 q( s( Q. v9 C4 o6 @, \1886 - We find a sharp decline and bottom in January, a moderate rally into March, then a ( |) O; s! P- d+ B6 h
sharp decline to new lows in May; a sharp advance, reaching high in November, and
& L5 e1 W5 }" ea sharp decline in December.- `0 B, L8 z1 a! r/ V/ c0 Z" ~  @+ f
* [9 w( G: o0 ]+ E% @) |
1906 - The  next  important  cycle  to  consider  is  1906.    In  that  year,  the  great McKinley
/ q4 a, B/ K1 ?8 @( R, @boom, which began in 1896, culminated.  The railroad averages reached the highest
- l9 D1 R8 V+ Rprice in history up to that time.  From the high of January, a sharp decline followed 4 h; \! ?# H3 e! ^3 y. f
to May.   Much of  this selling was caused by  the San Francisco earthquake.   Then,
. Z& w: l. I4 Sthere was  a  rally  into  June,  followed  by  a  sharp  decline  to  low  in  July, with  the 9 h4 g4 x3 y* c4 |1 F, y
bottom  just  slightly  higher  than  the  low  of May.    From  this  low  there  was  an ; d0 ^8 `* D" K' L: r9 g. n
advance  to  September,  when  another  top  was  made,  but  lower  than  the  top  in
# w" ^- R" [& O5 B- d6 B  MJanuary; then followed a decline into December and a panic followed in 1907.
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1926 - The next important 10-year cycle to consider is 1926, when the great Coolidge bull 3 k& y2 |) c# Z
campaign  was  underway.    From  the  low  in  December,  1925,  stocks  rallied  to ! |6 q! n% ?0 _6 I- f3 _% }; t
February, 1926; then had a sharp decline into March, some stocks breaking as much
1 F  \9 }0 o$ Zas  100  points.    From  this  bottom  there was  a  sharp  advance  to  new  high  levels, % _  K6 G4 k7 T' Z
reaching  top  in  August;  then  another  sharp  decline  to  bottom  in  October,  from
- w" q8 ]3 R% J. ewhich a rally followed to December, but stocks did not get back to the high reached
) h6 Y' U7 O2 V+ H6 rin August that year.9 ~0 Z# j9 |, O: s$ {% y

1 Y6 T; c. m  w* W) D) qNow, when I get ready to make up my Forecast for 1936, I will consider all of the cycles.  I 7 r$ A9 w) Z6 v. w+ x( V( B
will go back and also check the 7-year cycles, the 14-year and 15-year cycles, which is half of - M$ X, t' t: _( D% b
the  30-year  cycle.    But,  at  this  writing,  with my  knowledge  and  experience  of  the  future . X) e& {" M* P
cycles, I expect the 1896 cycle to repeat in 1936.
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. ~9 w1 h9 Z7 W1936 is likely to be a very uncertain election year just as it was in 1896, when the Bryan silver
% U" v+ }) N8 H$ D: o+ U5 n6 Q* Tscare caused a panicky decline  into August.   There  is a possibility of a  three-cornered fight, 7 ~& N, y9 q5 ?, Q) z+ ?8 U
with two Democratic presidential candidates and one Republican.  There certainly is going to * w7 u2 k5 q- g# P1 _+ ~8 C. v
be a time during 1936 when the investors are going to get scared and speculators are going to   L' @6 Q1 X/ h9 a; P, I0 a( l
get scared and sell stocks, causing sharp declines.% E" H+ K6 S+ ~+ y

) D+ B# u  q; \" F3 k9 z+ pMy opinion, at this writing, is that the first decline will start in the month of January and wind
5 ~" M5 F8 R; x$ rup with a  sharp decline.   February –   the market may drift along  in a narrow,  trading  range
, w9 O, L$ a  iwith some rallies, but there will be another decline in the month of March, just as there was in
* D4 r* w7 h6 J1 Y1 P. ]% [) w1926.    I  am  confident  that  there  will  be  another  break  in  the  months  of May  and  June, 9 ~) v* |9 |4 f( G# K
especially in the latter half of May, as this will be running out four years from the 1932 low   Q$ p, {+ _$ e+ `
and 6 years from April, 1930 high, all of which are indications of important changes in trend.
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7 q9 G: C5 f1 ?We know  that presidential nominations will  take place  in  July,  therefore  this  is  a month  to
5 }2 ]. M5 @0 z7 Wwatch for uncertainties and declines, unless sharp declines have come before that  time.   The
, u; E% u/ i. T0 C0 oending of the cycle from 1896 in August is quite important and regardless of how high or how
/ n4 t$ i; _. M: j8 T3 olow stocks are, there are likely to be some sharp declines before the end of August.  Again, in , }( E+ a: `( ]4 D
the last half of September, uncertain conditions and possibility of sharp declines are indicated.  * C2 h4 R' P# F+ U: v. n# \
This may mark the last low and an election rally may start if there are indications of a change
% \. e1 t. a: B# R* p- b+ b6 k. m1 cin Administration by the election of a Republican president, which, I believe, at this writing, % _; A% W, l+ @; p$ v1 f. }
will happen.4 k" b  K7 t: o! z4 b. a

$ h1 D0 V3 j# @9 u% F4 ~September, October, and November are all important because these months are 7 years from
7 n2 ~5 n. R# n* D  x$ C( athe top in September, 1929 and 7 years from the panicky decline in October and November, # ^2 U7 ?2 d6 u- l( Y; M
1929.   I would expect a rally to  take place after  the election in November, which would last ( U  `' D0 P( K; M" w) y
anyway until the early part of December.  If conditions show signs of improvement and if the   P; U7 e' t6 q3 i: {  |# D  Y' r- T
people  are  satisfied  with  the  man  elected,  then  the  advance  will  probably  continue  into
  P: E- P6 c$ @  Y4 sDecember, with high prices around the end of the year.
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This  is merely a general outline  that  I am giving without completing all of my calculations + t& u3 y9 n( `) t! J
and making up the Annual Forecast in detail.& w1 _. `. K0 |  F1 p
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$ a' w" D+ x9 J& Y/ k译文：
作者: 甘恩    时间: 2009-5-2 22:52
桃兄真是快枪手！$ Z; h) X5 ^+ R+ E
---------------------------------
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( i( J9 s' D- \9 b6 b( Y6 _4 V6 O[ 本帖最后由 甘恩 于 2009-5-2 22:53 编辑 ]
作者: 天蓝蓝    时间: 2009-5-2 22:55
你这是第几章第几节？请标上！
作者: 甘恩    时间: 2009-5-2 22:58
原帖由 天蓝蓝 于 2009-5-2 22:55 发表 ; A% v' N0 U+ q5 `' {: K, G% j
你这是第几章第几节？请标上！

6 Y5 i4 H. j9 f) ~& m( A8 E勤勤手吧——用一下PDF的搜索功能！！
作者: anyway    时间: 2009-5-2 22:59
     感谢
作者: mcwhmm    时间: 2009-5-2 23:08
谢谢
作者: jqbudd    时间: 2009-5-3 00:10
谢谢，
作者: 东四十条    时间: 2009-5-3 08:43
谢谢！！支持甘恩兄的帖子！！
作者: jsyly    时间: 2009-5-3 08:57
谢谢甘恩兄! I/ B9 {2 [+ X% G% r
作者: new79man    时间: 2009-5-3 09:53
支持楼主发贴。。
作者: yay    时间: 2009-5-3 10:21
原帖由 甘恩 于 2009-5-2 14:48 发表 9 B7 D: @5 [0 G- {
说明：
! M. `1 H( k( y, ^0 t6 {9 b' y1.首发。转载请注明出处——阳光飞狐/江恩理论；当然还有译者。谢谢！
" S! b. ]  h  M* q; ]( e2.译文乃初稿，未校稿，仅供参考！" s, A5 i/ r" U. a
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...
多读几遍江恩描述的! 或许就是大家天天都在做的事!! k& _% f2 |6 u% w
不要再搞的过于神秘!
6 ]' L$ @7 }' L/ E0 e
! x/ a4 F9 Q0 G2 M5 f7 a[ 本帖最后由 yay 于 2009-5-3 02:25 编辑 ]
作者: wushilu    时间: 2009-5-3 10:34
谢谢.
. ]3 N2 M; X8 z8 b5 \' O! W! o' N谢谢. $ p2 o9 Q3 o  P: t5 D$ Q
谢谢.
作者: sijiawei2008    时间: 2009-5-3 11:18
支持楼主发贴。。
作者: xinju    时间: 2009-5-3 12:57
中央红军1934年10月16日离开瑞金开始了长征之路
- Z: H* W* Q- g/ u; W9 n历史上的
+ a/ V8 I9 s. F5 I9 [" }; q1 p$ ^' L: }( j4 R/ A+ h5 Z2 p* C0 D! V
如果再结合星相，自然如虎添翼，不用这样麻烦~~~
作者: 非常理由    时间: 2009-5-3 14:29
谢谢
作者: 小笨牛    时间: 2009-5-3 20:46
要学的东西太多，谢谢提供
作者: axcqy    时间: 2009-5-3 21:43
谢谢提供
作者: 上下    时间: 2009-5-4 02:47
奇文共赏
作者: shdw    时间: 2009-5-4 07:21
谢谢甘恩兄
* T3 ]$ d, }9 I0 ]3 X& k0 L
作者: 股为金用    时间: 2009-5-4 08:17
支持楼主发帖，新手好好学习。
作者: zb0510    时间: 2009-5-4 09:09
作者: 84308    时间: 2009-5-4 10:01
好好看看
作者: 老树    时间: 2009-5-4 10:05
谢谢甘恩兄
作者: jqbudd    时间: 2009-5-4 11:46
谢谢分享
作者: Panther    时间: 2009-5-4 11:55
以前没有读到过， 谢谢。
0 X' o6 i7 S5 H( Y+ G老江真牛，这才是预测。
+ O+ O$ W7 v9 A2 `6 \4 `; O学习。
作者: 姜恩棠    时间: 2009-5-4 12:56
标题: 难道不应该配上这附图？？？
江恩百年预测图
! R& M* L# _' }3 B
作者: neilyoung    时间: 2009-5-4 13:11
带彩的。。。
作者: 时价量形    时间: 2009-5-4 15:15
谢谢分享
作者: stevenluo1688    时间: 2009-5-16 07:52
谢谢分享



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