【阳光飞狐__与财富同行】

标题: 江恩如是说（4）——年度预测 [打印本页]
作者: 甘恩    时间: 2009-5-2 22:48
标题: 江恩如是说（4）——年度预测
说明：
9 ~3 D/ c6 o0 Q8 j1.首发。转载请注明出处——阳光飞狐/江恩理论；当然还有译者。谢谢！
6 R0 n) Y, z/ @+ S2.译文乃初稿，未校稿，仅供参考！, ?6 E. o: w+ M" ^( U7 R7 n
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原文：: U5 N" Y9 k+ k# d* A9 [
HOW TO MAKE UP ANNUAL FORECASTS: s, a% M6 X, l. |4 ~; d; ^

) s4 z- M9 I! G6 E$ p* Q5 nI  have  stated  before  that  the  future  is  but  a  repetition  of  the  past;  therefore,  to make  up  a
4 {7 f3 G7 H, w5 J3 D0 U  f# Cforecast of the future, you must refer to the previous cycles.
! T5 H+ Y. [  p% v: W' e) P6 v6 g8 {0 q
The  previous  10-year  cycle  and  20-year  cycle  have  the  most  effect  in  the  future,  but  in
$ B. T& h. }" u6 }" Y0 A% Hcompleting  a  forecast,  it  is  best  to  have  30-years  past  record  to  check  out,  as  important " B4 s0 V# c  N' a, L
changes occur at  the end of 30-year cycles.    In making up my 1935 Forecast on the general
! y8 {$ X+ r. n( @  {4 pmarket, I checked the years 1905, 1915, and 1925.  For the 1929 forecast, I compared 1919 –0 m% c4 x6 F4 E* T% t2 u
10 years back, 1909 –  20 years back, 1899 –  30 years back, and 1869 –  60 years back,  the
: r- u# U: c: k- OGreat Cycle.' e, a7 \/ Q9 T2 \% s$ H

5 R2 u$ E2 j& q( I9 z7 j: f0 sYou should also watch 5, 7, 15, and 50-year periods to see  if  the market  is repeating one of
' ~6 ~8 ]* G0 k% Bthem closely.+ F4 ?7 c7 N0 x- D
  P0 C- B2 ?  X! I$ g" y
MASTER 20-YEAR FORECASTING CHART
* S8 U/ A+ M" E1831 –  1935; N3 y% W0 S8 P6 C. W% U9 Q
In  order  to make  up  an  annual  forecast,  you must  refer  to my Master  20-year  Forecasting
0 R' G- X: s5 s$ ~0 n, ?Chart and see how the cycles have worked out and repeated in the past.
* O* Z; W6 f! S, X, r$ t+ w& s# M0 Q0 c1 t( P, ]# R) e
And stated before, the 20-year cycle is the most important cycle for forecasting future market * j# k# O$ x* _7 N8 _% R7 J
movements.    It  is  one-third  of  the  60  year  cycle  and  when  three  20-year  cycles  run  out,   g3 R6 ~3 B- c% E0 n
important bull and bear campaigns terminate.; j5 U2 s# N+ d$ W; `

0 v9 d6 y0 }! F* oIn order  for you  to  see  and  study how  the cycles  repeat,  I have made of  a chart of 20-year
9 J, X# R+ ]9 C" }- y: Bcycles, beginning with the year 1831.   To show all of the cycles from 1831 to date, we have
- N2 K* x8 Y/ b2 w, N, n' Dcarried through on this chart the monthly high and low on railroad and canal stocks from 1831( W% O# g& h; G; \
to 1855.   Beginning with 1856 we have used  the W. D. Gann Averages on  railroad  stocks
0 V, w' {# ?6 s! C$ s# T. q0 H1 Tuntil  the beginning of  the Dow-Jones Averages  in 1896.   After  that we have used  the Dow-$ L% }2 h: ]; c! d' \3 k
Jones Industrial Stock Averages.
! n  f4 Z! F8 t$ Y# m, `  n, }1 D
& h3 s" S( x2 m# C1 XAfter the end of the 20-year cycle in 1860,. E+ r& b/ W$ j/ `
the next cycle begins at 1861 and runs to 1880,
  t# k6 ?; V9 Z( V7 t$ E5 vthe next cycle begins at 1881 and runs to 1900,
$ E* T' c7 K4 @' _1 _' |4 xthe next cycle begins at 1901 and runs to 1920,/ j* g2 B! @* |! t3 ?; g1 @
the next cycle begins at 1921 and runs to 1940.
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9 ~  b1 e. |; K. h$ \5 G; VBy  placing  the monthly  high  and  low  prices  for  each  of  these  20-year  periods  above  each
- O7 C( I/ B$ @9 @1 E% W5 mother, it is easy to see how the cycles repeat.  The year of the cycles are marked from "1" to , u$ Y. A( p" Z
"20".   Study  the chart and note what happened  in  the 8th and 9th year of each cycle –   that % u, q/ D" l" N
extreme high prices have always been reached.  For example:
1 g7 r" y+ u; v# H5 A4 }, C  k' O
9 x6 Q; t* G  [, L3 `1929 FORECAST
4 I( u- E0 `  l( B: `$ \% _2 a( HAccording  to my discovery of  the 60-year  cycle,  I had  figured  that 1929 would  repeat  like
6 V& }! v. X' f* W9 `1869, 1909, and 1919.  Looking back 20 years, we find that top was reached in August, 1909,
. _' \' J8 A) d: Pand 60 years before, top was reached in July, 1869.  If you will read my Annual Forecast for
4 J& M, f; g! Q( F- ^4 [6 q1929, you will see that I had figured the top must come not later than the end of August and
) M# T% b( s& y# Y, G, D2 dstated that a "Black Friday" would come  in September.   Following strictly  the 1869  top, the
5 [2 e; i% Z3 j0 M8 O9 ktop would have come in July, 1929, and some stocks did make top at that time.  Following the $ X9 v2 E4 m4 e+ q. o
1909  top,  we  could  expect  top  in  August,  and  the  actual  high  of  the  averages  and many 8 L9 I" U8 F: E. h4 b- ^
individual stocks was reached on September 3, 1929.   Going back  to 1919, we find  that  the
! ]) U5 s& t, w. g7 W7 e! cAverages made first top in July and a big decline followed, but extreme high was made in the
( e9 l0 \. x* Qearly part of November.
( S; L6 R/ F0 S- y/ f
: @. }3 d0 s9 TFrom all of these tops –  1869, 1909, and 1919 –  sharp declines followed in the fall of the year,
. }8 P% a2 j6 T; D7 }9 Jjust as they did in 1929.  Therefore, you see how easy it was to follow this great advance and ' ?* Q( R4 S* ~8 n
determine when it would culminate.   There is no other way, outside of using  the 20 and 60-& z7 T9 J  I3 L
year cycle that we could have forecast this great bull campaign and its culmination so closely
+ R; j" W$ ?( m2 d( kin 1929.
, V  X. O. e8 o
4 [6 q! n9 V' M4 r1869-73 VS. 1929-33
, y4 Z5 r3 ^; WAfter the 1869 top, stocks continued to decline and reached low in November, 1873.  See how
1 {' `4 ?7 g+ u( F" G  b, h4 y& |many other bottoms were reached around this time in other cycles.  After the big decline from
4 X3 z7 ^1 E9 k: R+ F+ G4 S1929, notice that in October, 1933, the last low was reached on the Dow-Jones averages; then
2 r% B- S( g9 {. |/ r) }followed an advance to new high levels, crossing the top of July, 1933.
! N$ f7 a$ G) r; h* P
3 _" J& x0 G3 z8 u( p% w$ N! L; Z1935 FORECAST
+ `# {2 }( M8 V- ~+ t) f) pFiguring out the Forecast for 1935, we see on this 20-year Chart that we are running against , u2 G/ m6 n, `% ?9 O6 h
1855, 1875, 1895, 1915.   Therefore, we  look  to see what happened  in those years.   We find
. b# Y: n& w* C3 L' `that in 1895, the high was reached in September, in 1915, the high of the year was reached in
) D) B0 e" v2 I0 d: gDecember.
2 d" r- R, C6 K6 j  R; D* |$ d' g% L) @! T- P! B. {% ~- B3 Q
Then,  look  back  at  1865,  1885,  1905,  and  1925,  the  years  in  the  5th  zone  or  the  10-year
$ r. E. {0 [* s" h: Pcycles. We  find  that  in  1865  the  high  was  reached  in  October;  in  1905  the  high  was  in
5 L: q% ?2 \; L" g1 v1 N8 `October: in 1925 the high was in November.
" q9 d  \; g# x8 K9 J2 x) B
! L- X/ P0 }* l7 c2 u) j; Z6 V8 hThen, we would have a good guide in making out the Forecast for 1935, and we would know 7 H- t) p/ R4 Z' p+ H
what months  to watch  for  top and a change  in  trend.   My Annual Forecast  for 1935, which
- x! `) o  s" L+ e3 [  ?2 B9 q: Bwas  made  up  in  October,  1934,  indicated  top  for  October  28  and  a  secondary  top  for
- v7 }$ Z9 n( {- i6 u! H- c+ }November 15-16, 1935.
0 c& L+ n; r# z! P! ~
0 `& R& }+ l# `4 W# `8 P' X0 CThere are other ways of using this Chart to advantage.  One method of determining the trend 1 r3 B- ]1 s3 ~* c/ M9 S9 _+ P
is  to compare  the years of previous  cycles  in  the  same  zone.   For  example: after  the Dow-
& I+ z8 e) K! L* W' _" A( D4 J$ AJones 30  Industrial Averages  crossed 108  in May, 1935,  they were  above  the  average high - }: ]4 d. A; t7 z7 l7 o/ E8 U
price of all  the previous years in the 15th-year zone.   Therefore, the market indicated higher , q, v  k" Z' i) X+ M9 [
prices and showed that there would be a bull campaign.1 h# `9 v: }. f
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1936 FORECAST* h5 E% `# k0 X- f- E) V4 {! {
If we wish  to make up a  forecast  for  the year 1936, we compare  the years  in  the 16th year
  v3 I5 G1 q6 T9 v  t! W* ~zone, viz. 1856, 1876, 1896, and 1916.  As 60 years back is a very important cycle, we look at
, O/ a7 X  b& B3 ]5 u; k2 k. u4 M1876 first, then 1896, and 1916.+ R; U0 }) E$ C9 |- P

4 K$ L6 T/ l; H  q# K9 F% D9 C; O1876 - We find that the averages run up and reach high in March; then decline to the end of
; A' @4 j- F! R" s  W. B: ethe year.# J% T- }4 R0 A* m$ y6 J, i0 ]

' H/ t6 a( ^) _1 ?6 k1896 - Next,  we  look  at  1896,  which  is  40  years  back,  or  two  20-year  cycles,  a  very
4 Z6 s7 b0 {  m4 G6 W' V! eimportant presidential election year, just as 1936 will be.   We find that there was a 3 n3 A0 Q, ?: B
moderate  rally  into February, a decline  to March,  then a  small  rally  to May,  from
' e- L( N+ y% y) awhich a panicky decline followed, culminating on August 8, 1896, with the averages " P* D& Z) g, M. |
at  the  lowest  levels  in years.   From  that point, a bull campaign started, with prices
* p: T  x# ?2 M* n3 P+ R  \( U+ q* \8 j5 Sworking higher to December.
: f* W; b( G2 Q& F" J* r8 c* X0 ^* b' K* f. S$ O
1916 - The next important cycle is 20 years later, or 1916.  We find that prices declined in $ a+ ?1 q7 _3 i' q; \$ W& W
January,  rallied moderately  in  February,  then  declined  sharply  to April,  rallied  to
3 D8 u" y4 a! d5 Y7 o  n3 H% `- ]June,  then  declined  and  made  bottom  in  July,  from  which  a  big  bull  campaign 6 q4 R5 p6 ~" f- b
started,  making  top  in  November,  1916,  in  a  war  market.    A  panicky  decline 7 k1 v8 o) B/ Z% y" }( ~0 K
followed from the latter part of November into December." m- t( `( B) @1 X9 k5 N

* i- h0 G4 Q( c! l2 \+ KThis completes our comparison of  the 60, 40, and 20-year cycles back from 1936. Next, we 8 B2 P0 z, k) g- \7 s1 x& _
look at the cycles on the other side of the Chart, in the 6th year of the 20-year cycle, or the 6th
2 j; }: A7 y- U/ X+ w* Uzone, of the 10-year cycles.  These years are 1866, 1886, 1906, and 1926.
+ H) F% _$ R. [# Z. S3 @% o5 B$ K4 ~' j9 J' y  S6 e3 z# \' H
1866 - We find  that  in 1866  there was a sharp decline,  reaching bottom  in February;  then
5 A# I* L2 ~' o7 Uan advance, with top of the year in October.
& w& w+ w' [5 y4 ]1886 - We find a sharp decline and bottom in January, a moderate rally into March, then a
9 M( s1 o5 Y  f& ?1 ]sharp decline to new lows in May; a sharp advance, reaching high in November, and
0 K/ X4 n/ c3 ]2 T5 H, |& Ra sharp decline in December.
# u" ^/ K6 c3 L' g& m' W2 o/ Z( N2 `0 g3 Q, l$ p9 \3 D
1906 - The  next  important  cycle  to  consider  is  1906.    In  that  year,  the  great McKinley 6 `$ V% d& w  A
boom, which began in 1896, culminated.  The railroad averages reached the highest
6 b3 @: e2 S, V% i6 _price in history up to that time.  From the high of January, a sharp decline followed
+ |4 v7 H4 Z% {8 K, k& b. Rto May.   Much of  this selling was caused by  the San Francisco earthquake.   Then,
; t# e2 o+ N( q( W8 B& z. F5 s. lthere was  a  rally  into  June,  followed  by  a  sharp  decline  to  low  in  July, with  the # K: s4 E% E3 k- t! ^
bottom  just  slightly  higher  than  the  low  of May.    From  this  low  there  was  an * G! ~* D6 \: x, [) b- O! g
advance  to  September,  when  another  top  was  made,  but  lower  than  the  top  in
) U' w1 H* r' P7 G2 \4 iJanuary; then followed a decline into December and a panic followed in 1907.$ q3 N7 M3 K7 [  m" P
. z/ M1 v  E0 \/ ^5 x
1926 - The next important 10-year cycle to consider is 1926, when the great Coolidge bull
' G% D, `5 c+ A, d2 Y- {0 Tcampaign  was  underway.    From  the  low  in  December,  1925,  stocks  rallied  to + N# T# v. E& j, W( ~
February, 1926; then had a sharp decline into March, some stocks breaking as much
" }% n1 M( y0 u8 f. l0 y( }as  100  points.    From  this  bottom  there was  a  sharp  advance  to  new  high  levels, + ]& F6 s4 U& H9 W
reaching  top  in  August;  then  another  sharp  decline  to  bottom  in  October,  from   o  x9 o8 U. n, j
which a rally followed to December, but stocks did not get back to the high reached
; J# b$ Q3 r$ O# b, |7 C5 uin August that year.9 f1 K: `/ b* c
9 U% i' j" }0 ]/ Y2 X
Now, when I get ready to make up my Forecast for 1936, I will consider all of the cycles.  I
+ D( J- P6 i1 Kwill go back and also check the 7-year cycles, the 14-year and 15-year cycles, which is half of
3 I3 f! |; j, b; Q: N( e" c2 V* Bthe  30-year  cycle.    But,  at  this  writing,  with my  knowledge  and  experience  of  the  future
. G) u1 V, u& A  G4 q) ?5 i$ K- j$ mcycles, I expect the 1896 cycle to repeat in 1936.# ]3 Z% |' E3 k( B1 b. S
; Q# }6 Y: M8 d3 v; T
1936 is likely to be a very uncertain election year just as it was in 1896, when the Bryan silver " [% v8 x# @5 g/ K  Q' [. w' k
scare caused a panicky decline  into August.   There  is a possibility of a  three-cornered fight,
4 ], i! t; t1 L3 Xwith two Democratic presidential candidates and one Republican.  There certainly is going to " D% t% k& Y' l9 Y) |) G
be a time during 1936 when the investors are going to get scared and speculators are going to
: F7 i, j2 Z9 N5 Q$ k3 [& |9 ?get scared and sell stocks, causing sharp declines.
6 J. F- k1 u2 Y8 v; P8 S  M, L% F( T
0 ?& F$ y$ @7 y- O; e! i0 ]My opinion, at this writing, is that the first decline will start in the month of January and wind
  Y7 ]3 {- f4 q. [$ b( v) G5 Eup with a  sharp decline.   February –   the market may drift along  in a narrow,  trading  range ' F9 R- O4 h1 G6 l! z
with some rallies, but there will be another decline in the month of March, just as there was in 0 s0 @/ u1 g) V& z
1926.    I  am  confident  that  there  will  be  another  break  in  the  months  of May  and  June, 8 P. M  c4 r6 i" {9 x' o1 s
especially in the latter half of May, as this will be running out four years from the 1932 low % w6 {& A' [# R' U' o  t* w
and 6 years from April, 1930 high, all of which are indications of important changes in trend.4 z) ^8 e3 H3 a; u' z# q! _
; W! S, y) n0 |3 t1 M. \: Y7 d1 G
We know  that presidential nominations will  take place  in  July,  therefore  this  is  a month  to ! H' m5 S' [2 B) I
watch for uncertainties and declines, unless sharp declines have come before that  time.   The   s4 w9 K* u, h7 G2 V+ M! M
ending of the cycle from 1896 in August is quite important and regardless of how high or how ) N' A1 S" `* I0 \
low stocks are, there are likely to be some sharp declines before the end of August.  Again, in 4 n" e% g3 n; ^% s2 V
the last half of September, uncertain conditions and possibility of sharp declines are indicated.  
( x/ t$ `1 W* F7 ^! UThis may mark the last low and an election rally may start if there are indications of a change
. M, J0 o2 \  n  iin Administration by the election of a Republican president, which, I believe, at this writing,
- E! l3 c" p: j' {' d6 V& {: rwill happen.
5 v; b; b! j) j3 W+ Z2 q- T2 _8 m0 O
September, October, and November are all important because these months are 7 years from 9 \4 z! o' |. H" Q0 j) c# l
the top in September, 1929 and 7 years from the panicky decline in October and November,
% Q7 q& U1 D( a6 \) S; j1929.   I would expect a rally to  take place after  the election in November, which would last 0 A' t/ I* L3 \5 s% x
anyway until the early part of December.  If conditions show signs of improvement and if the
& `/ L; m5 b" f$ v, T, _& H6 d/ {people  are  satisfied  with  the  man  elected,  then  the  advance  will  probably  continue  into , V" a, {" T, L: Q
December, with high prices around the end of the year.
+ y( \+ N$ J) s
. ^( u( m% O' Y/ x; x0 K3 ^This  is merely a general outline  that  I am giving without completing all of my calculations
  M# R' P+ R1 T& G. F6 U, U: band making up the Annual Forecast in detail.( Q9 H( C, @8 }5 i
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译文：
作者: 甘恩    时间: 2009-5-2 22:52
桃兄真是快枪手！
: i$ ~0 }7 @9 S---------------------------------
0 P, ^  M: |& ]$ O4 X$ }! L" Q3 F; t, d0 P
[ 本帖最后由 甘恩 于 2009-5-2 22:53 编辑 ]
作者: 天蓝蓝    时间: 2009-5-2 22:55
你这是第几章第几节？请标上！
作者: 甘恩    时间: 2009-5-2 22:58
原帖由 天蓝蓝 于 2009-5-2 22:55 发表 + a! x" d; _& A' o/ Q+ Q
你这是第几章第几节？请标上！
8 V& D! f$ q7 a
勤勤手吧——用一下PDF的搜索功能！！
作者: anyway    时间: 2009-5-2 22:59
     感谢
作者: mcwhmm    时间: 2009-5-2 23:08
谢谢
作者: jqbudd    时间: 2009-5-3 00:10
谢谢，
作者: 东四十条    时间: 2009-5-3 08:43
谢谢！！支持甘恩兄的帖子！！
作者: jsyly    时间: 2009-5-3 08:57
谢谢甘恩兄- ]7 y5 P, l+ F8 }% l
作者: new79man    时间: 2009-5-3 09:53
支持楼主发贴。。
作者: yay    时间: 2009-5-3 10:21
原帖由 甘恩 于 2009-5-2 14:48 发表 " @8 a3 o8 K% Z6 n& R
说明：
5 ?+ _& |2 \* A1 Q$ V+ f1.首发。转载请注明出处——阳光飞狐/江恩理论；当然还有译者。谢谢！
4 G, L- h7 ^, ^8 f2.译文乃初稿，未校稿，仅供参考！, ^2 s" T# m& N3 ?0 d
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...
多读几遍江恩描述的! 或许就是大家天天都在做的事!3 f0 M- i( B+ i! d
不要再搞的过于神秘!
1 N6 Y( d" \! T) h. v3 y' J
+ \- k: P% }1 R[ 本帖最后由 yay 于 2009-5-3 02:25 编辑 ]
作者: wushilu    时间: 2009-5-3 10:34
谢谢.
. D  T4 o( o9 [, \, R  Q1 j谢谢. " k$ Y/ N% }+ J' `5 \& K
谢谢.
作者: sijiawei2008    时间: 2009-5-3 11:18
支持楼主发贴。。
作者: xinju    时间: 2009-5-3 12:57
中央红军1934年10月16日离开瑞金开始了长征之路3 z$ B* j9 _- L
历史上的
: {* h+ W0 [, R5 b
5 w$ Z: j# |7 f2 o/ B3 G- N4 D$ Q如果再结合星相，自然如虎添翼，不用这样麻烦~~~
作者: 非常理由    时间: 2009-5-3 14:29
谢谢
作者: 小笨牛    时间: 2009-5-3 20:46
要学的东西太多，谢谢提供
作者: axcqy    时间: 2009-5-3 21:43
谢谢提供
作者: 上下    时间: 2009-5-4 02:47
奇文共赏
作者: shdw    时间: 2009-5-4 07:21
谢谢甘恩兄$ [2 Y5 c- F6 |- w# P
作者: 股为金用    时间: 2009-5-4 08:17
支持楼主发帖，新手好好学习。
作者: zb0510    时间: 2009-5-4 09:09
作者: 84308    时间: 2009-5-4 10:01
好好看看
作者: 老树    时间: 2009-5-4 10:05
谢谢甘恩兄
作者: jqbudd    时间: 2009-5-4 11:46
谢谢分享
作者: Panther    时间: 2009-5-4 11:55
以前没有读到过， 谢谢。
3 u% _2 q) }7 J0 X1 i老江真牛，这才是预测。8 k. ?# `/ H; g+ _: Y" n# L  T- ^% w' O
学习。
作者: 姜恩棠    时间: 2009-5-4 12:56
标题: 难道不应该配上这附图？？？
江恩百年预测图
- l/ Y# J$ z8 y) f. O2 a
作者: neilyoung    时间: 2009-5-4 13:11
带彩的。。。
作者: 时价量形    时间: 2009-5-4 15:15
谢谢分享
作者: stevenluo1688    时间: 2009-5-16 07:52
谢谢分享



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