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标题: 江恩如是说（3）——预测要记住的重点 [打印本页]

作者: 甘恩 时间: 2009-4-30 10:58
标题: 江恩如是说（3）——预测要记住的重点
说明：
1.首发。转载请注明出处——阳光飞狐/江恩理论；当然还有译者。谢谢！
2.译文乃初稿，未校稿，仅供参考！
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原文：
IMPORTANT POINTS TO REMEMBER IN FORECASTING

TIME  is  the most  important  factor of all, and not until sufficient  time has expired does any
big move  up  or  down,  start. The  Time  factor  will  overbalance  both  Space  and  Volume.
When Time  is up, space movement will start and big volume will begin, either up or down.
At  the end of any big movement –  with monthly, weekly, or daily –  Time, must be allowed
for accumulation or distribution.

Consider each individual stock and determine its trend from its position, according to distance
in time from bottom or top.  Each stock works out its 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 10, 15, 20, 30, 50 and 60-
year  cycles  from  its  own  base  or  bottoms  and  tops,  regardless  of  the movements  of  other
stocks, even those  in  the same group. Therefore, judge each stock  individually and keep up
weekly and monthly charts on them.

Never decide  that  the main  trend has  changed one way or  the other without  consulting  the
angles  from  top or bottom  and without  considering  the position of  the market and  cycle of
each individual stock.

Always consider the annual forecast and whether the big time limit has run out or not before
judging a reverse move.  Do not fail to consider the indications on Time, both from main tops
and bottoms, also Volume of Sales and position on Geometrical Angles.

A daily chart gives the first short change, which may run for 7 to 10 days; the Weekly Chart
gives the next important change in trend; and the Monthly the strongest.  Remember, weekly
moves run 3 to 7 weeks, monthly moves 2 to 3 months or more, according to the yearly cycle,
before reversing.

Yearly bottoms and  tops:  it  is important to know whether a stock  is making higher or  lower
bottoms each year.  For instance, if a stock has made a higher bottom each year for five years,
then makes a lower bottom than the previous year, it is a sign of reversal and may mark a long
down cycle.  The same rule applies when stocks are making lower tops for a number of years
in a bear market.

When extreme advances or declines occur, the first time the market reverses over 1/4 to 1/2 of
the distance covered  in  the previous movement, you consider  that  the  trend has changed, at
least temporarily.

It  is important to watch space movements. When Time is running out one way or the other,
space movements will show a reversal by breaking back over 1/4, 1/3 or 1/2 of the distance of
the  last move  from  extreme  low  to  extreme  high, which  indicates  that  the main  trend  has
changed.

Study  all  the  instructions  and  rules  that  I have given  you;  read  them over  several  times,  as
each time they will become clearer to you.  Study the charts and work out the rules in actual
practice as well as on past performance.  In this way, you will make progress and will realize
and appreciate the value of my Method of Forecasting.
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作者: 甘恩 时间: 2009-4-30 11:03
老问题——贴不上图！