【阳光飞狐__与财富同行】

标题: 1909年，美国报纸采访江恩的访谈录 [打印本页]

作者: glymh 时间: 2008-12-24 14:00
标题: 1909年，美国报纸采访江恩的访谈录
報價與投資文摘》1909年十二月號專題訪問文章 -
威廉?;江恩 - 科學知識及能力令他著著領先:他的市場預測及其非凡的交易記錄

較早前，本雜誌被威廉?;D?;江恩(William Dilbert Gann)對股市的幾個長期預測吸引住。在不少例子，江恩預先給我們某些股票和商品將要到達的沽售價位，及當時不能到達的價位。
例如，當紐約中央公司(New York Central)造每股131美元時，他預測其股價要在129美元以前升到145美元。他的預測多次證明準確，而他使用的買賣方法與我們所知的任何一位專家的買賣方法均有所不同，令我們對江恩和他的預測方法以及它們在市場中的運用展開了調查。
調查結果在許多方面都非常引人側目。
明顯地，江恩發展了一套了解支配股票市場規律的全新理念。他將他的操作建立在某種自然法則上，盡管這些法則從開天闢地時已存在，但僅在近幾年纔受到人類意志及成為現代發現之一。我們要求江恩概述他的工作，而且就我們得到的結果看來，已獲得了一些非凡的證據。
在全面展示華爾街上有一位具新觀念的人這事實之前，這個新觀念將不為大多數人歡迎，因為它反傳統，並且鼓勵科學與研究。這些行為使大多數人憎惡。
江恩在這裡談到了他的經歷和交易方法。必須承認，江恩的預測在大多數例子中被證明正確。" 在過去的十年中，我將全部的時間和精力都投入到市場投機中。像其他人一樣，我曾損失過以千計的美元，並經歷了一個在沒有預備知識而入市的新手所必然遭遇到的起起落落。"
" 我很快便意識到，所有成功人士–無論是律師、醫生還是科學家，他們在開始賺錢以前，都對自己特定的追求或職業進行過多年的學習和研究。在我自己的經紀業務以及為大量的客戶服務過程中，我有常人難得的機會去研究他人失敗和成功的原因。我發現，在對市場沒有任何知識和研究的投資者中，在百分之九十以上最終虧本。"
" 我很快注意到股票和商品期貨的周期升跌。這使我得出結論：自然法則是市場運動的基礎。因此，我決定花十年的時間研究影響市場的自然法則，並將我的精力投入於使投機成為一種有利可圖的職業中去。在對已知的科學經過徹底的研究和調查後，我發現波動法則可以讓我準確預測在特定時間內股票或商品期貨價格升跌可到達的準確價位。這個法則可以在華爾街還未意識到之前，確定成因並預見結果。大多數投機者可以引證，祗知表象而不知成因是導致虧損的根本原因。"
" 在此，我不可能講出我在市場中應用波動法則的具體概念，但是，當我說波動法則時，是指無線電報，地線電話和留聲機的基本法則，門外漢還是可以得到某些要領。沒有這種法則的存在，上述發明將是不可能的。"
" 為了檢驗我的想法，幾年裡我不僅正常生活，而且還花了九個月的時間在紐約的阿斯特（Astor）圖書館和倫敦的大英博物館（British Museum of London）裡不分晝夜地工作，並研究早至1820年的股票交易記錄。我還研究了傑?;古爾德（Jay Gould）、丹尼爾?;朱爾（Daniel Drew）、康文多爾?;宏德比蒂（Commodore Vanderbilt），以及從那時起至今華爾街所有其他大炒家的操作方法。我已經研究了E?;H?;哈利曼(E?;H?;Harriman)的風險控制法以前及以後的聯合太平洋公司（Union Pacific）的行情，我可以說在華爾街歷史上的所有操作方法中，哈利曼先生的最具代表性。數據表明，無論是否是無意識的，哈裡曼先生是按自然法則進行買賣。"
重溫市場的歷史相關統計資料，我們會很明顯地看出有某種法則控制著股票價格的變化和波動，以及在所有這些波動背後確實存在著一種周期法則或循環法則。觀察證明，在股票買賣中存在固定周期性的活躍期及其後的沉寂期。
亨利?;荷爾(Henry Hall)在他的新作中以大量的篇幅論述了他發現的固定時間出現的繁榮與蕭條的循環。我運用的規律有適用於長期循環變化，或適用於每日甚至每小時的股票波動。了解每隻股票的波動，我就可以判斷何處是支撐位，何處是阻力位。
密切留意市場的人會發現股票價值上上落落的現象。在某些時候一隻股票會變得異常活躍，成交量巨大，而在另一些時候，同樣的股票會變得幾乎靜止或凝滯。我發現波動法則支配和控制著這些條件。我還發現，這個法則的某些方面支配著一隻股票的上漲，而一種完全不同的法則卻控制著下跌。當8月份創出最高價的聯合太平洋公司以及其他鐵路股在下跌的時候，美國鋼鐵公司（US Steel）的股價卻穩步上揚。這是波動法則在起作用，它使一隻特定的股票處於上升趨勢，而此時其他股票正處於下跌趨勢。
我發現股票本身與它背後的驅動力之間存在著某種和諧不和諧的關繫。因此它全部活動的秘密是顯而易見的。用我的方法，我可以判斷每隻股票的波動，而且通過考慮某種時間因素，我可以在大多數情況下確切說出在特定條件下股票的表現。研判市場趨勢的能力歸因於我對每隻股票特點的認識，以及在其特有波動率下的不同股票的知識。股票如電子，原子和分子，它們與基本的波動法則有相應的個性。科學告訴我們任何原始的沖激會變成一種周期或有節奏的運動。就像來年總會帶來玫瑰和春天，隨著原子量的增加，元素性質會周期性出現。
我從廣泛的調查、研究和應用測試發現，不僅各種股票在波動，控制股票的驅動力也處於波動狀態。這些波動力必須通過它們在股票上所產生的波動和它們在市場上產生的價值來了解。由於所有大波動或市場運動都是周期性的，它們也是遵循周期法則的。
科學已定下原理，元素的性質是原子重量的周期函數。一位著名的科學家曾說過，我們將會相信，自然現象在不同領域上的多樣性是以數學關係緊密相聯。這些數字不是混雜隨機的，而是受固定周期影響。在許多情況下，變化與發展有時相當奇怪。
因此我相信，每種現象，無論是自然還是市場的，必定受制於因果關係和協調關係的普遍法則。每個結果必有一種適當的原因。如果我們希望避免買賣中失敗，我們必須研究其原因。每一種存在的事物都基於確切的比率和適當的關係。自然界中不存在巧合，最高層次的數學原理是萬物的基礎。法拉第(Faraday)曾說過，宇宙中祗存在數學的力量，別無其他。
波動是萬物的基本。它是最普遍的，適用於地球上的每一種現象。
按波動法則市場中每隻股票都在其活動範圍內運動，至於強度，成交量和運動方向，所有演化而出的特征都在於其本身的波動率(Rate of Vibration)。股票就像原子，是能量的真正中心，因此它們受控於數學法則。股票產生本身的活動場(Field of Action)和能量––相吸或相斥，這原理說明為什麼某些股票有時是領先股，而有時交投卻變得死寂。因此，想進行科學的投機，就必須遵循自然法則。
在多年的耐心研究，我已經向我自己及他人證明，波動法則可以解釋市場的每個可能的階段和狀況。
要證明江恩的方法所能達到的成果，我們拜訪了住在紐約市比弗街（Beaver Street）16號的威廉?;E?;基利 (William E. Gilley) 先生，他是一位進口貨物檢驗員。基利是市區的知名人物。他本人研究股市波動已有廿五年，在此期間，他檢查過每一篇發表過的或可以在華爾街買得到的市場文獻。正是他鼓勵江恩研究科學和數學在市場運動的潛在影響。當我們問及江恩給他留下了最深刻印象的工作和預測時，他做了以下回答:
我很難記得江恩所有驚人的預測和買賣，下面祗是一些例子：1908年，當聯合太平洋公司賣168- 1/8美元時，他告訴我這隻股票在漲到169美元前會先有頗大的跌幅。我們一直拋空，直至它跌到152- 5/8美元，然後回補空倉並反手買入，結果在18點的波幅中賺到了23點的利潤。
當美國鋼鐵公司(US Steel)的股票在約50美元時，他告訴我，這隻股會升至58美元，但不會過59美元。之後，它會下跌16點。我們在58美元沽空，並設止蝕於59美元。結果，它的最高價是58美元。之後，它一直下跌至41 1/4美元，下跌了17 1/2美元。
另一次，小麥處於約89美仙，他預測五月份期權合約可以升至1.35美元。我們買入期權，並一路賺大錢。它最後上升至1 .35 1/2美元。
當聯合太平洋公司(Union Pacific)在172美元時，他說這股票會升至184- 7/8美元，但在沒有下跌前，不會升至185美元。結果，它真的升至184 - 7/8美元，並反覆上試八、九次。我們在這個價位沽空多次，並在185美元處設止蝕，從未止蝕過。聯合太平洋最後下跌至172- 1/2美元。
江恩的計算方法以自然法則為本。我密切研究他的工作幾年，我知道他已經緊緊掌握控制股票市場波動的基本原理，而且我相信目前世上還沒有人可以掌握他的觀念或方法。
今年初，他曾預測升市的頂部可能會在八月份的某天出現，並計算屆時道瓊斯平均指數可能到達的水平。結果，市場真的在那一天到達，而與預測的指數水平僅相差0.4%。
"你和江恩必定從這些買賣中賺得不少錢"，我們估計。
"是的，我們賺到很多錢，在過去幾年，他從市場中賺了50萬美元。有一次我見他帶來130美元，結果在不到一個月的時間把它增加至一萬二千多美元。他比我認識的其他人能更快地賺錢。"
江恩其中一次最驚人的計算發生在去夏（1909），那時他預測九月份小麥期權合約將到達1.20美元。這意味著小麥合約必須在九月結束前到達上述水平。在九月三十日（九月的最後一天）芝加哥時間正午十二時，該期權還低於1.08美元，看起來他的預測落空了。
江恩說，如果在收市前它不到達1.20美元，那就表示我的整個計算方法出錯。我不管現在是甚麼價格，它必須升到那個水平。眾所周知，9九月份小麥期權合約使舉國震動，它在最後一小時升至1.20美元，而且沒有更高，最終收於1.20美元。
這麼多的都是江恩和其他人可以證明的所言所行。現在我們來看看江恩在的我們的採訪人員之前所做的示範。
在1909年十月的25個交易日裡，江恩在我們的代表在場下，進行了286次股票買賣，既有買入，亦有沽空。結果共有264次獲利，22次虧損。他運作的資金增值了九倍，在月尾他的資金增至起初時的1000%。在我們在場下，江恩在94- 7/8美元的價位上沽美國鋼鐵公司的普通股，並說這隻股票不會漲至95美元。結果的確如此。
十月廿九日結束的一星期裡，江恩在86- 1/4美元買進美國鋼鐵公司的普通股，並指出不會跌到86美元。結果最低是86- 1/8美元。我們曾看到他在一天之內對同一隻股票成功買賣了16次，結果證明其中八次是在即市的頂部或底部，上述事實我們確認無疑。這些表現及上文所述在華爾街歷史上很可能是史無前例的。
詹姆斯?;基美（James R. Keeme）說過："十次交易中有六次正確的人已可賺大錢。"這裡有一位投資者，他創造了超過92%的獲利比率的買賣記錄，而他沒有任何表演的動機（因為他不知道將要被出版的買賣結果是什麼？）。
江恩如何都不肯公開他的方法，但對那些有科學喜好的人來說，他無疑為華爾街增加了一份知識，並指向無限的可能性。
我們請求江恩為《報價與投資文摘》的讀者說幾條他從計算中得到的重要指引。在將之公開的同時，大家要明白，在華爾街內外，沒有哪個人是不敗的。
江恩估計，除了一般反彈外，股市在1910年三月或四月前仍將下跌。
他預計，五月小麥合約現在是1.02美元，不會跌低於99美仙，並將在明年春天見1.45美元。
棉花現處15美仙，他估計經過反覆後，其價格應在1910年春天見18美仙。他預期三月或五月期權。
無論這些預測正確與否，都不能影響江恩已經造出的記錄。
江恩在德薩斯州的路芙市出生，現年三十一歲。他是一位有天賦的數學家，對數字有非凡記憶力，更善於解讀市況。撇開他的科學理論，他也能按對市況的直覺戰敗市場。
憑他的質素，我們毫不猶疑預見不用幾年，威廉?;D?;江恩就會成為華爾街的大炒家。
<完>
後記:江恩作出預測後，棉花按預期下跌，最低下跌120點。五月小麥到目前為止最低見1.01-5/8美元，現時造1.06-1/4美元。

作者: 呆呆 时间: 2008-12-24 15:26

辛苦了

作者: new79man 时间: 2008-12-24 22:34
楼主有没有这断访谈的英文原版，因为我看过几个翻译版本都有一些地方有出入。

作者: xixicat2007 时间: 2008-12-28 13:54
既然有兄弟需要，我来附上英文原文，请仔细阅读。。。
William D. Gann
An Operator Whose Science and Ability Place Him in the Front Rank - His Remarkable Predictions and Trading Records

  By Richard D. Wyckoff, Ticker and Investment Digest
  Sometimeago the attention of this magazine was attracted by certain long pullStock Market predictions which were being made by William D. Gann. In alarge number of cases Mr. Gann gave us, in advance, the exact points atwhich certain stocks and commodities would sell, together with pricesclose to the then prevailing figures which would not be touched.
Forinstance, when the New York Central was 131 he predicted that it wouldsell at 145 before 129. So repeatedly did his figures prove to beaccurate, and so different did his work appear from that of any expertwhose methods we had examined, that we set about to investigate Mr.Gann and his way of figuring out these predictions, as well as theparticular use which he was making of them in the market.
The results of this investigation are remarkable in many ways.
  Itappears to be a fact Mr. W.D. Gann has developed an entirely new ideaas to the principles governing stock market movements. He bases hisoperations upon certain natural laws which, though existing since theworld began, have only in recent years been subjected to the will ofman and added to the list of so-called modern discoveries. We haveasked Mr. Gann for an outline of his work, and have secured someremarkable evidence as to the results obtained therefrom.
  Wesubmit this in full recognition of the fact that in Wall Street a manwith a new idea, an idea which violates the traditions and encourages ascientific view of the Proposition, is not usually welcomed by themajority, for the reason that he stimulates thought and research. Theseactivities the said majority abhors.
W. D. Gann's descriptionof his experience and methods is given herewith. It should be read withrecognition of the established fact that Mr. Gann's predictions haveproved correct in a large majority of instances.
"For the pastten years I have devoted my entire time and attention to thespeculative markets. Like many others, I lost thousands of dollars andexperienced the usual ups and downs incidental to the novice who entersthe market without preparatory knowledge of the subject."
"Isoon began to realize that all successful men, whether Lawyers, Doctorsor Scientists, devoted years of time to the study and investigation oftheir particular pursuit or profession before attempting to make anymoney out of it."
"Being in the Brokerage business myself andhandling large accounts, I had opportunities seldom afforded theordinary man for studying the cause of success and failure in thespeculations of others. I found that over ninety percent of the traderswho go into the market without knowledge or study usually lose in theend."
"I soon began to note the periodical recurrence of therise and fall in stocks and commodities. This led me to conclude thatnatural law was the basis of market movements. I then decided to devoteten years of my life to the study of natural law as applicable to thespeculative markets and to devote my best energies toward makingspeculation a profitable profession. After exhaustive researches andinvestigations of the known sciences, I discovered that the law ofvibration enabled me to accurately determine the exact points at whichstocks or commodities should rise and fall within a given time."

The working out of this law determines the cause and predicts theeffect long before the street is aware of either. Most speculators cantestify to the fact that it is looking at the effect and ignoring thecause that has produced their losses.
"It is impossible here togive an adequate idea of the law of vibrations as I apply it to themarkets. However, the layman may be able to grasp some of theprinciples when I state that the law of vibration is the fundamentallaw upon which wireless telegraphy, wireless telephone and phonographsare based. Without the existence of this law the above inventions wouldhave been impossible."
"In order to test the efficiency of myidea I have not only put in years of labour in the regular way, but Ispent nine months working night and day in the Astor Library in NewYork and in the British Museum of London, going over the records ofstock transactions as far back as 1820. I have incidentally examinedthe manipulations of Jay Gould, Daniel Drew, Commodore Vanderbilt &all other important manipulators from that time to the present day. Ihave examined every quotation of Union Pacific prior to & from thetime of E. H. Harriman, Mr. Harriman's was the most masterly. Thefigures show that, whether unconsciously or not, Mr. Harriman workedstrictly in accordance with natural law."
"In going over thehistory of markets and the great mass of related statistics, it soonbecomes apparent that certain laws govern the changes and variations inthe value of stocks, and that there exists a periodic or cyclic lawwhich is at the back of all these movements. Observation has shown thatthere are regular periods of intense activity on the Exchange followedby periods of inactivity."
Mr. Henry Hall in his recent bookdevoted much space to "Cycles of Prosperity and Depression," which hefound recurring at regular intervals of time. The law which I haveapplied will not only give these long cycles or swings, but the dailyand even hourly movements of stocks. By knowing the exact vibration ofeach individual stock I am able to determine at what point each willreceive support and at what point the greatest resistance is to be met.
"Those in close touch with the market have noticed thephenomena of ebb and flow, or rise and fall, in the value of stocks. Atcertain times a stock will become intensely active, large transactionsbeing made in it; at other times this same stock will becomepractically stationary or inactive with a very small volume of sales. Ihave found that the law of vibration governs and controls theseconditions. I have also found that certain phases of this law governthe rise in a stock and an entirely different rule operates on thedecline."
"While Union Pacific and other railroad stocks whichmade their high prices in August were declining, United States SteelCommon was steadily advancing. The law of vibration was at work,sending a particular stock on the upward trend whilst others weretrending downward."
"I have found that in the stock itselfexists its harmonic or inharmonious relationship to the driving poweror force behind it. The secret of all its activity is thereforeapparent. By my method I can determine the vibration of each stock andalso, by taking certain time values into consideration, I can, in themajority of cases, tell exactly what the stock will do under givenconditions."
"The power to determine the trend of the marketis due to my knowledge of the characteristics of each individual stockand a certain grouping of different stocks under their proper rates ofvibration. Stocks are like electrons, atoms and molecules, which holdpersistently to their own individuality in response to the fundamentallaw of vibration. Science teaches that 'an original impulse of any kindfinally resolves itself into a periodic or rhythmical motion; also,just as the pendulum returns again in its swing, just as the moonreturns in its orbit, just as the advancing year over brings the roseof spring, so do the properties of the elements periodically recur asthe weight of the atoms rises."
"From my extensiveinvestigations, studies and applied tests, I find that not only do thevarious stocks vibrate, but that the driving forces controlling thestocks are also in a state of vibration. These vibratory forces canonly be known by the movements they generate on the stocks and theirvalues in the market. Since all great swings or movements of the marketare cyclic, they act in accordance with periodic law."
"Science has laid down the principle that the properties of an  element are a periodic function of its atomic weight.A famous scientist has stated that 'we are brought to the convictionthat diversity in phenomenal nature in its different kingdoms is mostintimately associated with numerical relationship. The numbers are notintermixed accidentally but are subject to regular periodicity. Thechanges and developments are seen to be in many cases as somewhat odd."
Thus, I affirm every class of phenomena, whether in nature oron the stock market, must be subject to the universal law of causationand harmony. Every effect must have an adequate cause.
"If wewish to avert failure in speculation we must deal with causes.Everything in existence is based on exact proportion and perfectrelationship. There is no chance in nature, because mathematicalprinciples of the highest order lie at the foundation of all things.Faraday said, "There is nothing in the universe but mathematical pointsof force."
"Vibration is fundamental: nothing is exempt fromthis law. It is universal, therefore applicable to every class ofphenomena on the globe."
Through the law of vibration everystock in the market moves in its own distinctive sphere of activities,as to intensity, volume and direction; all the essential qualities ofits evolution are characterized in its own rate of vibration. Stocks,like atoms, are really centres of energy; therefore, they arecontrolled mathematically. Stocks create their own field of action andpower: power to attract and repel, which principle explains why certainstocks at times lead the market and 'turn dead' at other times. Thus,to speculate scientifically it is absolutely necessary to follownatural law.
"After years of patient study I have proven to myentire satisfaction, as well as demonstrated to others, that vibrationexplains every possible phase and condition of the market."
Inorder to substantiate Mr. W. D. Gann's claims as to what he has beenable to do under his method, we called upon Mr. William E. Gilley, anInspector of Imports, 16 Beaver Street, New York. Mr. Gilley is wellknown in the downtown district. He himself has studied stock marketmovements for twenty-five years, during which time he has examinedevery piece of market literature that has been issued & procurablein Wall Street. It was he who encouraged Mr. Gann to study thescientific and mathematical possibilities of the subject. When askedwhat had been the most impressive of Mr. Gann's work and predictions,he replied as follows :
"It is very difficult for me toremember all the predictions and operations of W. D. Gann which may beclassed as phenomenal, but the following are a few. "In 1908 when theUnion Pacific was 168-1/8, he told me it would not touch 169 before ithad a good break. We sold it short all the way down to 152-5/8,covering on the weak spots and putting it out again on the rallies,securing twenty-three points profit out of an eighteen-point marketwave."
"He came to me when United States Steel was sellingaround 50, and said, "This steel will run up to 58 but it will not sellat 59. From there it should break 16 points." We sold it short around58 with a stop at 59. The highest it went was 58. From there itdeclined to 41-17 points."
"At another time, wheat was sellingat about 89¢. Gann predicted that the May option would sell at $1.35.We bought it and made large profits on the way up. It actually touched$1.35."
"When Union Pacific was 172, he said it would go to184-7/8 but not an eighth higher until it had a good break. It went to184-7/8 and came back from there eight or nine times. We sold it shortrepeatedly, with a stop at 185, and were never caught. It eventuallycame back to 17."
"Mr. Gann's calculations are based onnatural law. I have followed Gann and his work closely for years. Iknow that he has a firm grasp of the basic principles which governstock market movements, and I do not believe any other man canduplicate the idea or his method at the present time."
"Earlythis year, he figured that the top of the advance would fall on acertain day in August and calculated the prices at which the Dow JonesAverages would then stand. The market culminated on the exact day andwithin four-tenths of one percent of the figures predicted."
"You and W D Gann must have cleaned up considerable money on all these  operations," was suggested.
"Yes,we have made a great deal of money. Gann has taken half-million dollarsout of the market in the past few years. I once saw him take $130, andin less than one month run it up to over $12,000. Gann can compoundmoney faster than any man I have ever met."
"One of the mostastonishing calculations made by Mr. Gann was during last summer [1909]when he predicted that September Wheat would sell at $1.20. This meantthat it must touch that figure before the end of the month ofSeptember. At twelve o'clock, Chicago time, on September 30th (the lastday) the option was selling below $1.08, and it looked as though hisprediction would not be fulfilled. Mr. Gann said, 'If it does not touch$1.20 by the close of the market it will prove that there is somethingwrong with my whole method of calculation. I do not care what the priceis now, it must go there.' It is common history that September Wheatsurprised the whole country by selling at $1.20 and no higher in thevery last hour of trading, closing at that figure."
So muchfor what W D Gann has said and done as evidenced by himself &others. Now as to what demonstrations have taken place before ourrepresentative :
During the month of October, 1909, intwenty-five market days, W D Gann made, in the presence of ourrepresentative, two hundred and eighty-six transactions in variousstocks, on both the long and short side of the market. Two hundred andsixty-four of these transactions resulted in profits ; twenty-two inlosses.
The capital with which he operated was doubled tentimes, so that at the end of the month he had one thousand percent ofhis original margin.
In our presence Mr. William D. Gann sold Steel common short at 94-7/8,  saying that it would not go to 95. It did not.
Ona drive which occurred during the week ending October 29, Mr. Gannbought U.S. Steel common stock at 86-1/4, saying that it would not goto 86. The lowest it sold was 86-1/3.
   We have seen Gann givein one day sixteen successive orders in the same stock, eight of whichturned out to be at either the top or the bottom eighth of thatparticular swing. The above we can positively verify.
   Such performances as these, coupled with the foregoing, are probably  unparalleled in the history of the Street.
JamesR. Koene has said, "The man who is right six times out of ten will makea fortune." Gann is a trader who, without any attempt to make ashowing, for he did not know the results were to be published,established a record of over ninety-two percent profitable trades.
Mr.W. D. Gann has refused to disclose his method at any price, but tothose scientifically inclined he has unquestionably added to the stockof Wall Street knowledge and pointed out infinite possibilities.
Wehave requested Mr. Gann to figure out for the readers of the Ticker afew of the most striking indications which appear in his calculations.In presenting these we wish it understood that no man, in or out ofWall Street, is infallible.
William D Gann's figures at presentindicate that the trend of the stock market should, barring the usualrallies, be toward the lower prices until March or April 1910.
He calculates that May Wheat, which is now selling at $1.02, should not sell  below 99¢, and should sell at $1.45 next spring.
OnCotton, which is now at about 15¢ level, he estimates that after a goodreaction from these prices the commodity should reach 18¢ in the springof 1910. He looks for a corner in the March or May option.
Whether these figures prove correct or not will in no way detract from the  record which W. D. Gann has already established.
WilliamDelbert Gann was born in Lufkin, Texas, and is thirty-one years of age.He is a gifted mathematician, has an extraordinary memory for figures,and is an expert Tape Reader. Take away his science and he would beatthe market on his intuitive tape reading alone.
Endowed as heis with such qualities, we have no hesitation in predicting that,within a comparatively few years, William D. Gann will receiverecognition as one of Wall Street's leading operators.
Note:Since the above forecast was made, Cotton has suffered the expecteddecline, the extreme break having been 120 points. The lowest on Maywheat thus far has been $1.01 5/8. It is now selling at $1.06 1/4.

[ 本帖最后由 xixicat2007 于 2008-12-28 14:00 编辑 ]

作者: new79man 时间: 2008-12-28 14:22
谢谢楼上热心的版友。

作者: glymh 时间: 2008-12-28 15:11
谢谢xixi兄

作者: 有所思 时间: 2009-1-10 17:02

作者: yay 时间: 2009-1-11 00:06

原帖由 glymh 于 2008-12-24 06:00 发表 8 Z. s( Y$ Y, |4 ]# ~; u8 c
報價與投資文摘》1909年十二月號專題訪問文章 -/ B" q0 I6 h p9 v( A4 x b
威廉?;江恩 - 科學知識及能力令他著著領先:他的市場預測及其非凡的交易記錄7 M) l- c: K! n- [" V' R3 |
9 L( P0 E. o! I/ s8 |2 L3 u/ w
較早前，本雜誌被威廉?;D?;江恩(William Dilbert Gann)對股市的幾個長期預測吸引住。在 ...

从中可以看出, GANN即是技术高手,又是成功商人!

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