. z$ s! q$ H8 Y9 [" N. R( k"You must not give too much weight to the averages, but should determine the position 8 W/ N/ x1 y' U; m7 [
of each individual stock which composes these averages. … The law of averages works 1 O* E6 d% O4 N2 i/ x
when applied to life insurance. The actuary can figure the lives of 1000 men at various+ K$ P- l" A+ e, c+ M: D) N3 C
ages and tell on an average how many of them will die each year, but the actuary " T# F6 U; C- Ucannot figure on one individual and tell when he will die from the position of the & F$ L" S, u0 ~$ z8 k- v- N
average because of the fact that men born at different times are grouped under the : z: F& W* S2 }
same average. Stock averages are also made up of stocks from companies which are 5, 8 x4 H: s4 H0 |0 W10, 20, 30, 50, and 100 years old. With such a wide difference in the time of the % @$ k4 M4 A Jincorporation, and with the industries located in different parts of the country and - |" y6 i* n, c5 y
influenced by local as well as other conditions, it is only natural that some of them 6 j4 o% \# J; N1 K9 I% n6 {9 y
must go opposite to the trend of the average group. 7 o' x. V; [2 g& I+ A9 Q$ d你不要总是在指数上花太多时间，但是一定要确定这些代表着每一只个股的平均指数的位置和状态。, |; ]2 s5 h' ]% ^5 {6 C
保险业要使用平均法则，保险精算师可以计算1000个不同年龄的人并可以告诉你他们之中每年有多 ' `' H5 r9 S( W/ x4 @0 G/ H& J' n: d少人将死去，但是精算师不可能根据平均指数来推算并告诉你每个人什么时候会死，因为事实上不# U4 [9 V3 W9 F; G6 `3 x
同时间出生的人聚合在一起具有相同的平均出生率。股票指数也同样由那些5, 10, 20, 30, 50, $ k9 U; c+ |8 E0 A w$ d' l! x
和 100年历史的上市公司的股票所组成。具有很大的成立时间上的不同，产业定位于不同国家和领6 z: `" P4 p# _5 n8 k$ c' i
域，并受当地的其他环境条件影响，它们之中的一些将与指数趋势形成反方向运行仅仅是其自然本 % ]7 K& r$ R C& r* a& [- q) Z性的原因。 0 F7 t) p, h$ y, A- w" {+ ]
Therefore, in order to get a reliable Forecast, each company and its stock must be ! n# e- d: g& a0 J, @analyzed separately, judged and forecast individually and not collectively." 6 Z+ t" _! i' B( Z9 @ B' v8 p因此，要想获得一个可靠的预测，每一个公司和它的股票都必须单独分析，单独判断和预测而不 6 G) g) \. x8 n9 C$ g8 R是从总体上去这样做。 . c* j. w% L8 f8 C$ j5 N- F+ ^4 j8 }) kW. D. Gann, Wall Street Stock Selector, pp. 29-30 《华尔街股票精选》 6 Q7 R m9 u2 O5 F
1.Leave queer-acting stocks alone. Stick to the ones that favor you.6 I" s1 c+ d" w. \$ g0 ^3 H T
离那些走市古怪的股票远远的，牢牢沾住一个你能很好把握的股票 , Y: f0 ^: L/ K R; _$ m2 e
"The kind of stocks to trade in are those that are active and those that follow the - A' h. f0 V# S$ T* E K
rules and a definite trend. There are always queer acting stocks and some stocks that 2 K6 O. `+ d4 _$ N: V$ f: n" W don't follow the rules. These stocks should be left alone." W. D. Gann, New Stock 8 [2 F# P0 w$ N! }5 |$ @
Trend Detector, p. 34 n/ I$ k' C; h% Y
适合交易的股票种类是那些活跃的并且跟随法则具有明确趋势的那些股票。那些走市总是很古怪9 \, z, d: u7 L' _6 {5 S
的股票和那些不跟随法则的股票，我们应该让它们自己去表演。 # s/ b# R6 `/ r+ j( T/ J
" When you find that a stock does not seem to work well for you, leave it alone. Quit4 \: V* r. M7 S/ K3 w2 [/ ^
trading in it, and stick to the ones that favor you. I could explain to you the cause + J, t6 S& c2 R; r* d t( @/ w! E
for this, but it is not necessary, and many of you would not believe it. % v3 Y/ a) L! e. Y
当你发现一个股票并不象你分析的那样运行时，就请离开它，退出在它上面的交易，而要去粘住1 V0 c" ]* [# u
一个适合你的你能很好把握的股票。我可以解释这其中的原因，但不是必须的，你们其中的很多 # b' ] K0 Y6 v8 j5 t5 _人也未必相信这个解释。 * o K) e) G: ]2 N- Y1 g
It makes no difference whether you know or do not know the reason why a thing works 9 x1 t, `8 [' ?& q
or does not work; just as soon as experience teaches you that there is something that& {! J$ z D& {$ J/ C5 E# b' }
works against you, the only thing to do is quit."- l9 j+ y) q4 A9 \
W. D. Gann, Truth of the Stock Tape, p. 75 1 H* H$ Q3 Q) k- \2 {/ H+ C你是否知道为什么一件事情发生或不发生的理由是没有太大差别的。你只需要让经验事实告诉你8 Y# q+ [' Y& f4 x V, K
有些东西正在和你对着干就足够了，你仅仅需要的是退出。- @5 j$ I; Z* g, D& r' y! i Q
2.Know when to quit. Determine when your trend is changing one way or the other.9 g- f! {' ]: \0 [
知道什么时候退出。当你的交易趋势正在变化时你有办法知道。 * d; j$ G) U5 F, A
"A man's life runs in cycles just the same as stocks. He reaches his apex and does " r% {5 u/ I, M$ ]0 h) \3 W
not know it. His time for money making ends, and he should keep what he has already 0 ]) K1 H0 c$ W2 H" K7 Q1 r made, rather than try to make more. & o H& A/ m* ~
一个人的生命在一个循环中运行就象股票一样。他到达他的顶点但他自己并不知道。他赚钱的时2 D# n) L6 u; p& v8 |6 `
间结束了，他要保存住他先前所获得的要比他努力赚更多更重要。 % P0 _) ?( i8 x) K7 x
* O' e: q$ {8 V' I/ P+ HThere is a seasonal trend and a mathematical scientific cycle which determines the 1 j, n$ U2 } d" c9 ltime and limits to which a man can go and when he bucks the law and the tide turns 1 H! T, E; n$ R3 Q7 I4 j: `against him. The most important thing for every man to know is when to quit. After 0 d2 O; O5 {2 ]
a man has made money, he must know when he has enough, stop and keep what he has. … 8 \: f5 a2 P. S: `' G $ z( r$ J: o; U& P一个周期性季节性的趋势和数学的科学循环确定了一个人可以到达的时间和范围，以及什么时候9 @) F% Q1 L6 Z3 |
它违反法则使得趋势向与他预期的相反方向的逆转。对每个人来说最重要的事情是知道什么时候7 ]: w6 i: i' s: Y8 P9 }: G
退出。在一个人赚到钱后，他必须知道什么时候就足够了，什么时候停止并保持他所拥有的。 3 q! w- p4 `2 \7 C
"Man's seasonal trend changes just as the market and he has his good and bad cycles. # b! g% C0 m5 {. h' b* H$ c
By keeping a record of your own trades, you can determine when your trend is changing! e3 B: q F/ a" I8 [ Y0 d
one way or the other. I have been able to make as many as 200 consecutive trades 6 {9 D9 c- F4 a3 p) U: Y4 r
without a loss. If I had no way to forecast it, what sign should I watch to tell , I' E* u3 \/ j- R
when the tide had turned against me and I should get out and wait? The first , n9 `4 i- @/ i4 R8 G2 ]$ N& y; x/ T
indication that something was wrong would be the first trade on which I made a loss. ' ~ K! E/ q' n. d … ) h/ i9 a( A* @; U! R F. f
人类的季节性趋势变化正象这个市场一样有好的和坏的循环。通过对你自己的交易记录，你可以0 ^/ M# m, \3 i, l1 n3 b) |, X
测定什么时候你的个人趋势的变化。我可以连续200次交易不会有一点损失。假如我没有预测市# C; B) c: j6 P1 l/ s' X
场的方法，我怎么能在趋势已经向我预期的方向发生逆转的时候发现一些迹象并作出卖出或观望0 w7 S4 e% a# A8 |
的决策呢？首要的是在第一次交易时就不要使自己失败和损失…… L& ^7 j7 q' P
"There is no use staying in, holding on and hoping, when things go against you. Take }# w. @' K4 j0 z& t
your loss quickly and get out. You will make money by staying out of the market and* M/ o" U& R2 B7 m7 A
waiting for an opportunity when the market is right, your physical condition good * f8 Y) T; R7 v: i8 n1 ?4 O1 r
and your mind at its best. To beat the stock market is a battle of wits. Your mind 9 G. z/ B4 p+ ^3 Y
must be active, keen and alert. You must be able to change your mind and act quickly. 4 E o# ^9 R1 }. m3 t% Y; YWhen you find that your mind gets sluggish and you cannot act quickly, you are in no u- L8 R6 Y3 j; R6 Z* R5 N/ E0 c
position to be in the market." W. D. Gann, Wall Street Stock Selector, pp. 34, 35 & g7 B$ O( k/ v" N, X5 R 2 d5 q/ p w, A0 M) l当趋势离你而去的时候，死撑毫无意义，抱着侥幸没有一点用。尽快承认损失并离开市场。你将 0 O' W( ?) f: m5 T$ P, n9 K因为离开市场来“赚”到一笔钱，并等待适合你的市场机会，这样你的物质条件良好，心态也不错。% e+ Q) j' h+ }& p5 g+ o/ Q
打败市场是一个智力的战争，你的心态要积极，敏锐，警觉。你要学会快速的调整改变你的心态和% q0 S6 h5 }$ }3 P+ E* M
行为。当你的心态变的迟缓，你的行动就会失去果断快速，你在市场里就根本无法立足。4 y" G( F; G3 C' J4 P
------------摘选自 的江恩原著 <华尔街股票精选> 部分章节作者: 平凡与奇迹 时间: 2008-10-18 22:39
谢谢哦
