【阳光飞狐__与财富同行】

标题: 江恩1909年的预测包括了2007年，2008年 [打印本页]

作者: OldZ 时间: 2008-10-9 00:52
标题: 江恩1909年的预测包括了2007年，2008年
[attach]67577[/attach]

从表上看 2007年，江恩的预测是：

股票价格处于极低的位置，失业，罢工，压抑，沮丧，新的商业时代的开始

作者: OldZ 时间: 2008-10-9 00:56
江恩的预测表明2007年处于一个低潮，是最低点

实际2007 是这次危机的起始点，是个最高点

虽然江恩的预测恰好反了，

但是可以看出江恩先生的对周期循环预测令人佩服

作者: OldZ 时间: 2008-10-9 00:57
恰好反了，为何？

中间某个循环漏了？

作者: 东儿 时间: 2008-10-9 07:34
虽然江恩的预测恰好反了，

但是可以看出江恩先生的对周期循环预测令人佩服

作者: yay 时间: 2008-10-9 08:17

原帖由 OldZ 于 2008-10-8 16:57 发表
恰好反了，为何？

中间某个循环漏了？

或许! 前面就有个点反了!

作者: 东北松999 时间: 2008-10-9 09:13
尽信书则不如无书！谢谢楼主发帖！

作者: netcar 时间: 2008-10-9 09:18
周期太长，起点错了？

tomfoolery

作者: leolee 时间: 2008-10-9 11:02
印象中有人说过，gann有时候预测的高低点是反的，但时间是对的。

作者: xyzabc 时间: 2008-10-9 11:14
其实我们自己的预测也已经体会到了有时候知道那个时间是转折点，但是不知道方向。

作者: 我来啦耶 时间: 2008-10-9 11:38

作者: 烟花久久 时间: 2008-10-9 14:03
呵呵。。。
1989A-2007K

作者: fy1603 时间: 2008-10-9 14:09
或许! 前面就有个点反了!
=====================

作者: 垂钓沧波间 时间: 2008-10-9 16:09
好像在《华尔街45年》中，对后来的50年代的预测恰好相反。大家看看是不是。呵呵

作者: 垂钓沧波间 时间: 2008-10-9 16:27

原帖由 5575338 于 2008-10-9 11:14 发表
其实我们自己的预测也已经体会到了有时候知道那个时间是转折点，但是不知道方向。

是的。不好判别出来那个时间点是顶的时间还是底的时间，不好搞清楚,只好根据实盘走势猜测了。呵呵。

[本帖最后由垂钓沧波间于 2008-10-9 16:30 编辑 ]

作者: feijiu 时间: 2008-10-9 18:05
是有意为之吧。

作者: logoslogos 时间: 2008-10-9 18:38
呵呵，每人真正看懂欧，可惜了

作者: netcar 时间: 2008-10-9 20:27

原帖由 logoslogos 于 2008-10-9 18:38 发表
呵呵，每人真正看懂欧，可惜了

愿闻其详！

cheer

作者: zqp3600 时间: 2008-10-9 23:01

作者: lordreon_h 时间: 2008-10-10 08:49
江恩先生用的历法可能和我们现在不大一样，一年不一定是365天。

作者: zcf 时间: 2008-10-10 09:21
标题: 图
这张图清楚些
[attach]67627[/attach]

作者: 我来啦耶 时间: 2008-10-10 09:44
cycle.

作者: fy1603 时间: 2008-10-10 11:24
好像在《华尔街45年》中，对后来的50年代的预测恰好相反。大家看看是不是。呵呵
===================================================
ZT

As I see it the problem with supposing a larger cycle landed during the 1949-1953 period is that Gann was 'the master of cycles' in his time.  He had records going back centuries, and even referred to the bible for longer cycles, and he knew how the Jewish calendar worked too.  It is unlikely that a beneficial cycle would have occurred without his knowledge, ..but if it did  than you would be right.

Something came along for sure.  This is a tough nut to crack because even Gann did not see it.  He wouldn't have jeopardised a hard won reputation on purpose, that would make no sense.

We have an advantage with our home PCs being vastly superior to anything Gann had in his day, and a hundred people (brains) following this thread. So there's a faint chance we may be able to shed some light upon this.

One view might be that War is good for the US markets and the US dollar. Afterall, WWII helped the US economy enormously.  In fact it probably saved the US economy from certain disaster.

June 25, 1950
At approximately 4 a.m. (Korean Standard Time) on a rainy Sunday morning Democratic People's Republic of Korea Army (DPRK - North Korea) artillery and mortars open fire on Republic of Korea (ROK - South Korea)

July 27, 1953
The United States, North Korea and China sign an armistice, which ends the war but fails to bring about a permanent peace.

Perhaps the question we should really be asking is why did Gann fail to see the outbreak of the Korean war and take that into account.  Curiously, he had 1950 pencilled in RED on his war cycle chart.
http://www.lambertganneducators.com/newsletters/gannwar.php

[本帖最后由 mzyma1355 于 2008-10-12 01:17 编辑 ]

作者: fy1603 时间: 2008-10-10 11:26
continue: ZT

... or could it be that the rebuilding of Europe, paid for by the Marshall plan, mainly benefitted corporate USA?
Gann grumbled about welfare states and the printing of dollars to sustain them, which would one day come home to roost, but those dollars have stayed in circulation for 50+ years.
Back in 1947, there was a post war mini-depression, but this was temporary as the Marshall plan money was recycled back to the US for US goods and commodities. The US business cycle then picked up, probably just avoiding the black scenario painted by Gann.
Using charts from 20 years ago to make current forecasts would not have allowed for a Marshall plan, which Gann didn't think would benefit the US. He probably thought the contrary which would have simply reinforced his black view of what was to come. Belief strong enough to publish that extremely dire outlook in a book.

http://www.mises.org/freemarket_ ... rtorder=articledate

作者: fy1603 时间: 2008-10-10 11:28
continue2: ZT

The UK formerly (Great Britain) has recently paid the final instalment of a post WWII loan of $3.75 Billion upon which there was a 2% interest rate.

At the time (1946) there was fierce opposition in congress to the granting of this loan because the Winston Churchill coalition government had been voted out and a socialist leaning labour party was then in power in Great Britain.  Congress did not wish to support a state which was about to extend its welfare programs and introduce free healthcare.  The Clement Attlee government in GB on the other hand wanted to rebuild its war ravaged economy and provide jobs and homes for its returning soldiers.

The British case to the Americans was one of fairplay & justice as we reminded them that we had fought the evils of Nazi Germany alone for 2 long years before the USA finally decided to join the affray, and defending freedom independantly had cost us dearly.  This case was presented on behalf of the British by Lord Maynard Keynes the famous economist, but his cut glass accent and school masterish form of approach did not go down well.

The loan application was foundering until Winston Churchill took a holiday in the USA (coincidence?) and met all the right people and assured them that all the people in the new British government had all served under him inthe wartime coalition government and were not rampant socialists at all.  Winston's intervention was enough to see it through simply because he was a great man & leader and everyone had respect for him.  (as an aside Winston also won a nobel prize for literature for his multi-voluminous History of WWII)

So Britain got its loan, so what has this to do with gann's forecast?

As part of the conditions of the loan, which were quite frankly a scandal and an imposition upon a friendly power and wartime ally, were open access to all commonwealth countries for American businesses for both exports and commodity imports and full convertability of the British pound.  Access to these markets which spanned the globe resulted in a drop in export trade for Britain, which makes the 2% interest rate on the loan look expensive.  The headline low interest rate was more than offset by the expensive terms and conditions.  The British felt they had been taken to the cleaners by their watime ally, who in turn thought they were propping up an ailing colonial power.  These opposing attitudes represented the core differences between the 'British patriachal sense of fair play & justice' and the 'US no quarter in business'.

As Great Britain was not seen to be the most powerful nation on earth anymore, the convertability of the pound resulted in over US$1 billion dollars being used to buy back British pounds from insistent foreign countries wishing to divertsify their reserves, instead of being used to expand the British economy.

Curiously, during Winston's tour he visited Missouri and made a speech there that shocked everyone when he forecast that 'all over eastern europe an iron curtain was descending'.  This was so shocking than even president Trueman, who was accompanying Winston on the tour, distanced himself, and the objectors to the British loan gained the upper hand for a short time. (shocking because people thought Winston was war mongering and having just got through one war no one wanted another!)

When it became apparant that Winston's words had been prophetic and proven true, the Marshall Plan was instigated which pumped $13billion in grants into europe, of which Britain benefitted to US$3billion , as it was recognised, somewhat belatedly, that Britain would play a key and strategic role in US foreign policy in the region for decades to come.

These vast sums of dollars, coupled with suspension of full convertability of the pound which which caused a loss of confidence in sterling, resulted in the US$ becoming the world's reserve currency.  The US was able to start pumping dollars without causing inflation at home.

In 1944 (before the end of the war) the Bretton Woods world financial system was agree" />d amongst 44 allied nations.  Lord John Maynard Keynes a prime supporter had wanted the two institutions the IMF & the IBRD to be situated in New York close to the capital markets, but they were sited in Washington instead (a classic example of political steam rollering) and the fear was they would be more easily influenced by US politicians, which may well have been the case in subsesquent years. (As part of the conditions of the loan Great Britain was required to implement the provisions of the Bretton Wood agree" />ment).

These events were unprecedented and could easily have been sufficient to avoid the black scenario which Gann obviously thought was a sure thing.

It would have been nice to find a simple algebraic formula, or cosmic explanation, as to why Gann's forecast failed, but history appears to be the culprit.

Perhaps we should look at the natals for GB & USA instead, for more answers.

[本帖最后由 mzyma1355 于 2008-10-12 01:18 编辑 ]

作者: fy1603 时间: 2008-10-10 11:32
continue3:ZT
This analysis has a bearing on the period in question, and appears to show Gann's expectations being in concordance with the Pi cycle (rewrote that sentence). Perhaps the Pi business cycle and the stock market cycles are not exactly the same thing, or their timing is slightly different.

"The 8.6-year cycle was holding up very nicely. From 1942抯 bottom, the cycle peaked again in 1946.95. This corresponded with the end of the World War II period and the beginning of the post war recession. The stock market had peaked during 1946 at the 220 level on the Dow and for the next three years the Dow traded sideways between 160 and 200.
Moving ahead, the next bottom was projected to arrive at 1951.25. The 1949 recession was a deep one in which the US did not begin to pull out until 1951. Although the business cycle began to rise due to the Korean War during mid 1950, it actually peaked during mid 1954 at a +18% on the Cleveland Trust Co. Index followed by a sharp drop to a -2% in 1954. The Dow had started to rise during 1950 and remained in a bull market rising from 195 to reach 525 by 1956."  (article by the famous but still incarcerated Martin Armstrong)

As far as I know Armstrong has not linked the Pi business cycle to astrology, although I recall reading somewhere that the Sun breathes in and out in very much the same sort of period. In fact he said ...
"At Princeton, we do not consult the stars nor do we believe in trying to change human nature. If a model cannot be built on 搘hat is?then there is no point in creating something that will 搉ever be.?BR>
However, according to Dr Theodor Landscheidt, the Sun's temperature cycle is linked to Phi triangles over the same period of 8.6 years, and let's face it, the Sun is a Star afterall!.

So now we appear to have found a causal relationship between Pi and Phi via the Sun manifesting in the business cycle.  This is almost like squaring the circle as far as mystical endeavours go, & just as curious!  http://www.john-daly.com/solar/temps.htm.  Now that the Sun is apparantly so important I shall have to stop worshipping the Moon.

作者: fy1603 时间: 2008-10-10 11:40
continue5:  ZT

well it is easy to see why Gann was pessimistic.

During 1949 Jupiter in Capricorn made 3 sesquiquadrate angles to Saturn in Virgo on 2Jul49, 23Aug49 & 23Dec49

But what made this potentially worse were the 3 following oppositions 6Apr51 Jupiter in Pisces o-o Saturn in Virgo, 14Oct51 & 21Feb52 Jupiter in Aries o-o Saturn in Libra.

But the riddle is that something interferred with his suppositions  ...any ideas?

Yes bondguy absolutely, that is a very good interjection.
He definitely would have taken that into consideration on a forecast like this.
He had the McWhirter cycle worked out long before McWhirter, but despite the table and the Astro, the forecast still went wrong - which is the conundrum

.. anyone have any idea as to why?

# CONUNDRUM
# A riddle in which a fanciful question is answered by a pun.
# A paradoxical, insoluble, or difficult problem; a dilemma:

If this is a pun,
then let us have some fun,
Of course when you ask "why",
all you get is the booby prize.

Ok, so the poetry stinks (or does it?), have you considered what happens when one asks "why"?
(Actually this will introduce what Gann was doing, but you抣l have to endure the old hermetic style Gann was so familiar with and used in his teaching style. Gann also made his students read many of the books he read, so they could relate to his come from?you抣l have to get to know Gann before you can know what he was talking about.)

Look up the definition of WHY in the dictionary.
Most look up the definition of Why as an adverb but let抯 move to what most don抰 do, (a good thing to do in trading too). Let抯 see "why" as a noun:  We find that it has two synonyms Cause and Enigma.

Cause = ?something that brings about an effect or a result" so here we have a noun (thing) that is cause and effect, something in the real world, substantial, hard and knowable.

Enigma =  another synonym is Mystery =  "a ?truth that one can know only by revelation and cannot fully understand."

Most of us want the first definition (cause)?hard facts, cause and effect, real world stuff. So if we were to follow our adage of not doing what everyone else is doing, we may want to look at an enigma, the mystery that is not necessarily of this cause and effect world.

Gann used the Law of Vibration to know and do a lot the things he later tried to share with the world, so if we are to know Gann we need to know something about the Law of Vibration. What most people don抰 recognize, is that the LV has more than one definition (like WHY did) but when we only look at the most common viewpoint, we may miss the mystery and deeper possibility.

The reason Gann would be right on some of his forecasts and trading and not on others is like Infolode said:  "But....Gann was also a self promoter and with egos come mistakes."

If we define ourselves we may find the same dilemma we had in defining WHY. Who are we anyway? One of the things (noun) that we are is an ego, and an ego is very interested in cause and effect, in controlling its space with knowledge and facts, and so is biased toward the Cause side of why.

Gann was human too, and he would be in his ego mode and make decisions from there, and he also was aware, as in the  Enigma, mystery side and could use the Law of Vibration from there. When he was doing his work from the Law of Vibration, he knew what was going on and was very accurate, when he slipped into ego mode and used his knowledge based on cause and effect he got something less.  Cause and effect works, but the ego has much less available to it, and so it often misses the mark.

作者: yuyu775 时间: 2008-10-10 11:55

原帖由 zcf 于 2008-10-10 09:21 发表
这张图清楚些
67627

从哪里弄来的，这么清晰？？？自己做的吗？？

作者: tsztm 时间: 2008-10-11 18:25
19年一个循环

作者: 1236688 时间: 2008-10-18 20:02
提示: 作者被禁止或删除内容自动屏蔽

作者: leolee 时间: 2008-10-18 22:26

原帖由 zcf 于 2008-10-10 09:21 发表
这张图清楚些
67627

能把字母不上就更好了

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